Showing posts with label International Trade Data. Show all posts
Showing posts with label International Trade Data. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Export Food Small Business Start-up

This is why, in addition to my general small business international trade start-up courses I teach a a specific class on food export.  The information offered everywhere except from me is not only bad, it is downright harmful.  The harm in these articles is people contemplating export expansion say "If that is what it takes, then I cannot do it." Well, what is described in the article is not what it takes. What is described in the article is a whole lotta waste.  The way it is done worldwide is not at all like this article describes.

Someone has to present what really happens in small business international trade.

This article is an example, and start out with a claim that is rather wrong.
While food giants such as P&G, Nestle and Unilever have long operated with a global footprint, it’s only recently that small- to mid-sized companies have been able to effectively tackle these markets.
Small businesses have been exporting food from the United States all along, nothing has changed in recent years, the tools tactics and attitude necessary have been there all along.  Yet the story will tell us about a "pioneer" in this field.
One of those food retail pioneers is Kontos Foods, a mid-sized New Jersey-based manufacturer and distributor of traditional artisan breads and Mediterranean specialty foods. A little over three years ago Kontos began a vigorous overseas expansion program, and now ships its products globally, to a wide range of locations, including Singapore, Indonesia, the Caribbean, Panama, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai.
I've never heard of Kontos Foods, and I am sure they are a fine company.  But what bothers me with these perennial articles telling us about "pioneers" is they never mention cost/benefit...  I can get sales into all of those countries pretty quick too...  at a cost.  The trick is to have sales and maintain a profit, at least as good as what you would have if you expanded domestically.  If Kontos is New Jersey based, then export orders ought to be no more difficult (or costly to acquire) and every bit as profitable as a domestic sale.  And alongside testing the overseas market, one would be obliged to test expanding domestically to compare with the overseas opportunities.

Now, recall the opening false claim that biggies like Nestle and Unilever were the only possible players before.  And who is making this claim?
Before Kontos, I worked at Unilever and my colleague, Kontos Foods’ Global Sales Director Doug Werts, is formerly of Nestle. Combined, we’ve lived and worked in different markets around the world, including the Netherlands, Brazil, and the U.K.
At Unilever, for instance, I spent significant time and resources building market share in Europe and South America. Those experiences, along with our current Kontos research about consumer shopping habits, provided us with the deep consumer insight we needed to target the right products and packaging to shoppers.
So to help a small or mid-sized company break into export markets, the process is the same as for Unilever and Nestle?  This is an internal contradiction: "nothing has changed, things are now different."

Now notice the valentine-to-self slipped in there, "my experience and my time spent on the Kontos dime travelling gives ME deep consumer insights."  Bull$#!+.  Since valid and reliable market information costs tens of millions, any other "experience or insight" is mere anecdote, and the plural of anecdote is not science.  There is a way to test market with spending tens of millions, and getting solid results.  It is search and learn, a process where you discover customers not otherwise discoverable.  But the tool tactic and attitude is utterly contrary to all of the elements this article proffers.  In short:

1. The tool - LCL MOQ FOB ...  if you have specialty, overseas buyers are looking to test this in their market.  They want and need that smallest order rational, not the largest order possible.  They want a pallet load to test, not a 40' container. It is FOB because you will be prepaid before anything rolls out of your warehouse destined for overseas.

2. The tactic:  Your export offer is one-size fits the entire world.  You ship overseas what you ship domestically. All "localization" for the export market is up to the importer overseas.  No good deed goes unpunished, so you never help your buyer by doing localization.  Recall we are talking a one pallet load shipment, and as a tst possibly several of these in sequence.  Why would you foot the cost of "localization" for a test order, in which most test will come up nil?  Don' worry, your importer overseas knows how to localize on the spot if necessary.  I am also an importer, and have had to "localize' many shipments on the spot in which customs has found fault.  it's a small shipment, no sweat.

3.  The attitude:  I came here to sell, why are you here?  At the trade shows, every buyer ought to place an order for your LCL MOQ FOB.  If not, why not?  If the person you are speaking to is not a buyer, end the conversation and move on to a buyer.  If the buyer says no to your one-size-fits-all worldwide offer, then find out why not.  Start a matrix of objections to see if any changes wold be worthwhile in your offer.  This is science, something sorely lacking among those who go to trade shows happy to settle for "trade leads."

What exporting gets down to is a test of the product by the importer overseas to whom you sell.  This article has a lot of moving parts, but bottom line is you find an importer overseas who wants to test your product.  On the one hand all of the rigamarole laid out in this article nets no advantage, and on the other hand you can achieve the same results with none of the rigamarole.

Then on this this:
The problem, however, is that overseas research isn’t cheap: Attending one trade show could cost upwards of $15,000-$20,000. There are nonprofit and government programs to help assist with companies as a means of trying to boost overseas trade. We found FoodExport NorthEast, a non-profit organization that supports international commerce. The organization is designed to help American food and beverage manufacturers attendforeign trade shows, connect with potential customers and learn about consumer trends.
Sigh. It could cost that much, but you can achieve the same results at a fraction of the cost.  Here is the funny thing, it could cost that much if you take the help those orgs offer, because their help is in the form of rebating half your costs if you do things their way, which "could cost upwards of $15 -20K..."

OK, so you spend $15,000 on a trade show and get $7500 back.  And their way is not the optimal way.  And I can do an optimal version the same thing all in for about $5000.   Now what kind of leverage is it when you net net you spent too much to do largely the wrong thing?

With the assistance of FoodExport, we started hitting the global trade-show circuit. They provide exploratory tours to help retailers discover whether a particular market is right for them. These tours offer crucial learning time, where retailers, manufacturers and distributors can quickly learn which regions are worth pursuing. When you’re on one of these tours, I recommend maximizing every minute of your research gathering.
For instance, while in Shanghai for a trade show tour, I learned that people in Northern China prefer bread much more so than their southern countrymen. This helped steer Kontos’ sales efforts to the correct part of the country, saving time and money.  
Any any Chinese food importer would already know this.  Why not just find a competent Chinese importer and have them test your product and provide feedback?  If and when something developes, then you might go visit China.  All this travel and time is expensive.
The international export business is on an upward trajectory. If you plan to join in on an overseas expansion program, gather an experienced team, do your homework and get your passport ready. People are now enjoying Kontos flatbread in Bahrain, Singapore, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Dubai. Who would have dreamed that three years ago?
As I started out this post asking, where is the cost benefit, I am pretty sure Kontos has gone well into the hole getting those export orders.  The question is when, if ever, it will proven to have been profitable.  For overseas expansion, you need no more talent than a good Freight Forwarder and a solid importer, who may be discovered without ever leaving your office.

Because these articles claiming "small businesses can export just like Nestle now" have been coming out the last 40 years, I offer a corrective course.  No nonsense, the tool, tactic and attitude to find export business no more difficult and every bit as profitable, from the first sale and onward.  You may read about the course here, and enroll now and pay later at the same site.

Tuesday 1/24 - 2/14/2017   Four Sessions
Section One ~ 6 PM to 7 PM Pacific Time
(This would be 7 PM to 8 PM Mountain, 8 PM to 9 PM Central, 9 PM to 10 PM Eastern)

This work can be done either as a proprietor producing food, or an agent representing a food producer.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Monday, December 12, 2016

Export Food - Repping Supplier Approach - LCL MOQ FOB Part 2


This is part two, part one yesterday...

On Nov 27, 2016, at 11:18 AM, J L wrote:
Hi John,
Appreciate you taking out the time to provide such a detailed feedback. The "Answer matrix" is amazing and very helpful.  
• I actually liked the idea of having the LCL MOQ FOB listed on his website. It puts the supplier at ease in terms of transparency ( which you have been advocating all along ), they are still in charge of their product and will probably make them comfortable doing business with me. It's a win win situation for both parties
• I've cleaned up the concluding statements in the draft and also made the other changes you suggested. Please let me know how it looks?.
• I like "Brothers L". My brother's name is K’yo and I was also thinking of names like Kyoto or Tokyp by combining both. Though they sound more Japanese than Ghanian :). What do you think?
• By all means strip and edit this as an example if it helps.
Thanks,
J

On Nov 27, 2016, at 12:00 PM, J L wrote:
I've included "export" in the letter for specificity. Thanks!

• You're right. I checked the HTS for units and it is Kg. So then is the analysis correct?. The Specialty Snack chips, 1 packet is 5 OZ and cost ~ $5 (retail). For Mexico the average price is $4.55 per Kg!
***Right, mostly chips...  at costco chips are about that...  he might say, that's too cheap, you reply..

a. that includes the cheapest mass produced chips too, it's the average, so skews very low give the mass amount of bad chops going in...  

b.  the bigger the mass market, the bigger the specialty market too...  

It's the trends that tell... ***

From point "b", should I initially be targeting Canada then in lieu of Mexico even though the average prices are lower?
JL

On Nov 27, 2016, at 12:09 PM, John Spiers wrote:
Hmmm... do either on either justification... just pick one narrative to start...

John


On Dec 2, 2016, at 1:03 AM, J L wrote:
Hi John,
Thanks for another fantastic session this Tuesday. I have mailed out the initial letter and wanted to be prepared just in case he calls me before our scheduled time this Tuesday. I have started a different email thread since we are on the next phase and also makes it easier.  

So the "Answer matrix" from previous email ( At the end of this email & Thanks for that! ) is an initial Introduction of myself & a proposal on how we can mutually benefit by doing business together. Assuming he's interested, he'll either start getting into specificity then and there OR will want to think about it and get back to me OR will ask me on how I want to proceed [ I'm assuming you'll say "Right Now over the phone" ?? ].  Was hoping me you can give me some guidelines on the following details which I think will be fundamental to our discussions and If there's something else you think might come up in the discussion and is important, please let me know

MOQ
Will the owner provide this?. If I have to come up with MOQ, I have absolutely no idea on what would be the ideal "smallest rational possible" quantity or how to go about finding that out.


Manufacturer Price ( ExW) / My Commission
On his website, he has prices quoted for 1 & 2 packets. Price for 8 packets have a reduction of approximately 12.2%. Going by that assumption, I came up with price for 1024 packets [ Hypothetical MOQ ]. The store I bought them from sold it for $5.50/packet 
• Now I know the reduction will stop at some point but am not sure what I can expect a reasonable price to be. As I'm writing this, I'm guessing you'll say that I should just take his price quote and get back with reliable and validated test data. 
• Should I go with 10% commission as suggested in the class?.
packets

Pricereductionmatrix.xls

JL

On Dec 2, 2016, at 6:31 AM, John Spiers wrote:

On Dec 2, 2016, at 1:03 AM, J L wrote:
Hi John,

So the "Answer matrix" from previous email ( At the end of this email & Thanks for that! ) is an initial Introduction of myself & a proposal on how we can mutually benefit by doing business together. Assuming he's interested, he'll either start getting into specificity then and there

***Yes, and you're best answer is "I don't know... and it will be fun to find out..."  (Will I have to change the packaging? Who in Mexico do you have in mind?)

A N D

No, I don't want or need an exclusive

Yes, you can say forget it... (except for the one, first LCL MOQ FOB)

Yes, you can fire me...  because I am not your employee and don't have anything at riak but some time spent doing something interesting, trying out my learning...

OR will want to think about it and get back to me

***  All I need is weights and measures of say a pallet load, what price YOU want, where I can pick it up from you, and  what would be the lead time, a month?  Then you can think about my export offer, after you see it,  is it something you want out there?  Start your thinking then, when you have something solid to look at.  If you say no, I'll be trying Bison Jerky next, but I like your product more. "***

MOQ
Will the owner provide this?. If I have to come up with MOQ, I have absolutely no idea on what would be the ideal "smallest rational possible" quantity or how to go about finding that out.

***Yes, must...  they have one already for domestic sales, but yours may be bigger, but usually no more than a pallet load.  You see on the template we need the weights and measures (H,L. W each and total) of the cartons, add the pallet height, and the price he wants to earn on the sale (ExW), and his delivery lead time, plus where he wants the goods picked up.  You might just have a rough draft template of the LCL MOQ FOB form with those blanks highlighted to email him, so if he asks how you want to proceed, you can just email him that .pdf.

Smallest rational really gets to logistics cost; if you get 100% more product for 5% more logistics cost (FF will point this out), then yes, jack up the qty to make the offer more attractive, but no, never a full container load...  two pallets is max for a test, and we are testing at this point in the export game.  There is back and forth on the LCL MOQ FOB development.  Measure twice, cut once....  remember, you are stuck with your lcl moq fob through 100 inquiries...***


Manufacturer Price ( ExW) / My Commission
On his website, he has prices quoted for 1 & 2 packets. Price for 8 packets have a reduction of approximately 12.2%. Going by that assumption, I came up with price for 1024 packets [ Hypothetical MOQ ]. The store I bought them from sold it for $5.50/packet 
• Now I know the reduction will stop at some point but am not sure what I can expect a reasonable price to be. As I'm writing this, I'm guessing you'll say that I should just take his price quote and get back with reliable and validated test data. 

****Precisement!  You are testing prices too.  The higher the better.  You get data back from your effort, for future reference, iterations.***

• Should I go with 10% commission as suggested in the class?.
Yes.


His discount is probably an example of the folly of price cutting, he has no economies of scale to offer...  it probably costs him close to your 64 box discount....

Just take his price and work with it...

And make sure you keep records of all of this activity with the potential supplier.  You add this to your rolodex of your contacts in the international trade of specialty chips.

As usualy feel free to email...

This is fun...

John


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Saturday, December 3, 2016

28 Jan 17 San Francisco Start-Up Seminar on Sale


Image result for college of san mateo logo

If you have been meaning to commit to start-up small business international trade, College of San Mateo in the San Francisco area hosts my all day in-person seminar on small business international trade start-up.  We always have a good group there.  The next session is Jan 28, Saturday, from 9am to 5pm.  The school is a magical place on top of a hill, and there is a farmers market occurring on the same day, which makes for a delightful lunch hour.

The school has put all of their classes, including mine, on sale.  You get the orientation and action steps in the course, plus unlimited follow-up with me afterwards.  Sign up now here to save 10%.

Happy Holidays!
Announcing a 10% Discount onALL Live Courses!

Good 11/28 thru 12/31/16!
Use the Code- 
Holiday2016 -upon cart check out
to receive your discount!

(Cannot be combined with any other discount)


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Friday, November 4, 2016

How To Build Export Sales In Four Steps

Redo your spreadsheets, look for differences.   Here comes the announcement at USITC.gov:
* Aug, 2016 trade data are now posted. Our practice is to update Dataweb as soon as possible after the Census Bureau releases monthly trade data, generally within three business days.Notice: The import and export data on Dataweb for 2010-2015 have been updated as of July 2, 2016 based on the latest official revisions from the Census Bureau (the first official revisions for 2016 data will not be available until June 2017). For the years prior to 2010, Dataweb will continue to show import and export data as originally issued by the Census Bureau with no revisions.
Yes, we begin with passion and joy, and then ground our strengths in what real world trade data (commodity, prices, target markets, trends) to form a scientific hypothesis to test.  Central to proceeding in int'l trade is the rock solid trade data.  Not the pointless junk you can buy at the 4 digit HTS level, but the most specific 10 digit level, which can only be had by gathering and analyzing it yourself, by hand. And in so doing, you have information no one else has.  Knowledge is power.  Five years is enough trend info, and then there is the practical problem wrong numbers stay wrong after five years.

And you must keep up on the trends.  So every year say around April, the full year data may be updated.  But when you find something that just looks dead wrong, like the price of caviar exported from USA (yes, we do...) then you must jump on it and get a review:
From: "M DDate: May 13, 2015 2:38:36 PM PDTTo: "johnspiers@b
Subject: Data Inquiry
Dear Mr. Spiers: This refers to your email concerning the unit price for exports of caviar (Schedule B number 1604.31.0000) to Japan during 2014. We have reviewed the data and have revised the reported statistics. Please make note of the following attachment and revisions to our published statistics. Thank you for your interest in the accuracy of our trade statistics. If you have further questions contact *****  The attached revisions are also available on our website at: www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/corrections/index.html In June, our revised monthly data for the three prior years will be available through our on-line data product, USA Trade. For information on our current revision policy go to: www.census.gov/foreign-trade/guide/revisions.html
So here are the changes made after the challenge:


Corrections to Published Export Data

MonthYearACTIONTypeERRATAHSCountryQty1Unit1SWTFAS
Value
April2014READS:Domestic20161604.31.0000Japan1,312KG1,489$19,368
SHOULD READDomestic20161604.31.0000Japan74KG1,489$19,368

 
May2014READS:Domestic20151604.31.0000Japan15,045KG30,804$222,097
SHOULD READDomestic20151604.31.0000Japan589KG30,804$222,097

 
July2014READS:Domestic20151604.31.0000Japan7,986KG9,064$117,896
SHOULD READDomestic20151604.31.0000Japan288KG9,064$117,896

 
September2014READS:Domestic20151604.31.0000Japan40,429KG21,759$1,097,248
SHOULD READDomestic20151604.31.0000Japan21,847KG21,759$1,097,248

 
October2014READS:Domestic20151604.31.0000Japan24,515KG13,517$970,738
SHOULD READDomestic20151604.31.0000Japan12,953KG13,517$970,738

 
November2014READS:Domestic20151604.31.0000Japan19,145KG21,729$282,607
SHOULD READDomestic20151604.31.0000Japan637KG21,729$282,607

 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Trade Management Division, Washington, D.C., 20233

The analysis on the original trade data looked ridiculous.  The client whose first foray into trade data analysis, in this case the trade data on caviar,  rejected it as impossible, evidence of criminal activity, anything except reality.  I advised him to challenge USCensus on the underlying data, and indeed they found it wrong (unlikely a Census problem, most likely a source problem corrupted data at the collection point, etc.)

Now, since we work at the ten digit level in data analysis, the new caviar trader introduces himself with information, at that point only someone in USCensus and he could have, could possibly have (OK< also me, but I am not in caviar), for a month or so.   The trader with this may make news, enhance his image and grow his business, as Ogilvy demands.

Yesterday I received this, in part of an email, from another student...
...the VP of sales I spoke with today told me "obviously you (meaning me) have been exporting for years"!  I explain my plan just as you outlined in your class (did not tell me I just completed my second class with you on Tuesday).
I followed up as you stated and found out the person I tried to contact is no longer with the company so I sent the same information update with the new VP sales contact information and we setup a call to review the opportunity to be a selling agent with them.  Finally schedule this morning.
My first question was are you currently exporting, she said no but do have sells in *****.  I told her from my data ***** and ******* are markets I would not presue because they are NOT growth markets and the price per kilo in on the decline.I explain my test market 1 size fits all (preselected pallet of product) with the MOQ FOB LCL and creating a website for serious buyers only.I told her it will be the same as a domestic order.  Her major question was who pays for all the export fees etc...I told her the buyer who imports that is their responsible.
Just so...  what I present in my classes is what I learned on the job the first decade I worked for others.  I've been self-employed since then.  I teach on the side, and as such have gathered the meta-study data that shows what I teach is also how it is done.  It is no secret, but I am the only one teaching it.  For reasons I can only imagine, no one else teaches what is effective.

The work is also crucial to economic recovery, as in YOUR economic recovery, so I am running another special session of my online seminar:

Fall Special Session  2016 
11/15- 12/6/2016   Four Sessions
Section One ~ 6 PM to 7 PM Pacific Time
(This would be 7 PM to 8 PM Mountain, 8 PM to 9 PM Central, 9 PM to 10 PM Eastern)


The tactics taught here relating to food can be used for any product, but the specificity fits with the brevity.  Here is more info on the course, and you may enroll here.... (scroll down to the bottom of the page and use the form at the bottom of the page for this special session.

eMail me if you have any questions. (Ask John in upper right)

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.