Showing posts with label sales. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sales. Show all posts

Monday, December 19, 2016

Effective Sales People

Sales people are not entrepreneurs, or essentially entrepreneurs depending on the definition.  I don’t know and I don’t care, I just know they are critical to success, and are sui generis, they are not like business people.  Few people are salesfolk, and those entrepreneurs who are not must be good consumers of salesmanship if they wish to reach their goals

To be clear, what follows assumes specialty and business to business, a specific category of selling.

To proceed, the essence of selling is communication.  Everyone mentions the 80 20 rule, sales people need to spend 80% listening, and 20% talking.  The paradox is the best communicators listen most. What makes a good salesperson is they listen  Contrary to what most men think, (women just don’t listen) women are some of the best salesmen.

Salesmen match the need they heard with the solution they represent.  If not, they communicate the “mis-match” (need v offer) back to the supplier (you).

If they make a sale they communicate what they heard that would also sell (in essence a lack as opposed to a miss) back to the supplier they represent.

What makes great salespeople is they immediately qualify a buyer and detach themselves from anyone not ready, willing and able to buy on the spot.  A bartender can talk to anyone else.  Batenders make a sale to people who just want to talk.  Don’t deny a bartender his just compensation by talking to anyone who just wants to talk.

Salespeople hand out one of two things: 

1. The sales offer.  Take it or leave it.  There is no negotiation. A buyer cannot place an order until you say “no” to requests.  The irony is it is best to say no immediately, in order to fatten your order book.  As search engines, Yahoo tried to get you to stick around, Google gets rid of you as soon as it can.  Who won?

A salesperson gets either a sale, or a how come no sale. Now we switch from passion/joy to science. Science is objective knowledge established by a valid and reliable test of a hypothesis.  Your offer is the hypothesis being tested. The “how come no sale” is tabulated, as data.Also gathered are the anecdotes as to what else would sell that come with sales. The approach is to the customers, who represent a sample of the population being surveyed.  At some point you get a valid and reliable samples size from the population in which one draws the responses.  The responses need ot be valid and reliable.  The responses are data.  Now it gets tricky.
In summary, nominal variables are used to “name,” or label a series of values. Ordinal scales provide good information about the order of choices, such as in a customer satisfaction survey. Interval scales give us the order of values + the ability to quantify the difference between each one.
The entrepreneurs job is to be in essence a clerk, to collect and distribute information between all of the acrors that make commerce happen.  You are compensated in the measure you effectively assess information, collect and distribute, and effect change in the form of creating customers through problems solved.  All products and services are solutions to problems.  There are no solutions that cannot be improved upon.

Now it gets trickier. Assuming you got the science right, then your job is to examine the feedback, and it’s source, and match the least change necessary indicated in the data with the least amount of expense to effect the most customer acquisition.  The feedback is the warrant people need to work with you.  You've got it, you share it.  Hegelian dialectic kicks in.  You propose a thesis based on the information.  Someone proposes an antithesis. Between the two of you, or someone else, develops a synthesis, better all around, often.  The joy part of the passion joy is atmospheric.  Steve Jobs blurted out "insanely great" during these data-application/product-development sessions.

Never try for the big score; progress is in infitismal increments.This is in essence fail fast, fail cheap.  You don’t go after the massive game-changer, that's not manageable and it will be taken away from you.  

Recall there was a second thing salesfolk hand out?

2. A pre-composed article touting your offer.  These include a $50 bill, with a promise of another $50 if the article is published.in legit industry press.  You have about 12 versions of this, to hand out to reporters.  In this way they can just edit slightly the article to make it sound like they wrote it, and put their byline on it, and turn it in as though they are working hard while on assignment.

The $1200 at risk is the cheapest and most effective advertising in the universe, assuming a couple of elements.

The elements of an effective PR release we’ll deal with at another time.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Monday, December 12, 2016

Export Food - Repping Supplier Approach - LCL MOQ FOB Part 2


This is part two, part one yesterday...

On Nov 27, 2016, at 11:18 AM, J L wrote:
Hi John,
Appreciate you taking out the time to provide such a detailed feedback. The "Answer matrix" is amazing and very helpful.  
I actually liked the idea of having the LCL MOQ FOB listed on his website. It puts the supplier at ease in terms of transparency ( which you have been advocating all along ), they are still in charge of their product and will probably make them comfortable doing business with me. It's a win win situation for both parties
I've cleaned up the concluding statements in the draft and also made the other changes you suggested. Please let me know how it looks?.
I like "Brothers L". My brother's name is K’yo and I was also thinking of names like Kyoto or Tokyp by combining both. Though they sound more Japanese than Ghanian :). What do you think?
By all means strip and edit this as an example if it helps.
Thanks,
J

On Nov 27, 2016, at 12:00 PM, J L wrote:
I've included "export" in the letter for specificity. Thanks!

You're right. I checked the HTS for units and it is Kg. So then is the analysis correct?. The Specialty Snack chips, 1 packet is 5 OZ and cost ~ $5 (retail). For Mexico the average price is $4.55 per Kg!
***Right, mostly chips...  at costco chips are about that...  he might say, that's too cheap, you reply..

a. that includes the cheapest mass produced chips too, it's the average, so skews very low give the mass amount of bad chops going in...  

b.  the bigger the mass market, the bigger the specialty market too...  

It's the trends that tell... ***

From point "b", should I initially be targeting Canada then in lieu of Mexico even though the average prices are lower?
JL

On Nov 27, 2016, at 12:09 PM, John Spiers wrote:
Hmmm... do either on either justification... just pick one narrative to start...

John


On Dec 2, 2016, at 1:03 AM, J L wrote:
Hi John,
Thanks for another fantastic session this Tuesday. I have mailed out the initial letter and wanted to be prepared just in case he calls me before our scheduled time this Tuesday. I have started a different email thread since we are on the next phase and also makes it easier.  

So the "Answer matrix" from previous email ( At the end of this email & Thanks for that! ) is an initial Introduction of myself & a proposal on how we can mutually benefit by doing business together. Assuming he's interested, he'll either start getting into specificity then and there OR will want to think about it and get back to me OR will ask me on how I want to proceed [ I'm assuming you'll say "Right Now over the phone" ?? ].  Was hoping me you can give me some guidelines on the following details which I think will be fundamental to our discussions and If there's something else you think might come up in the discussion and is important, please let me know

MOQ
Will the owner provide this?. If I have to come up with MOQ, I have absolutely no idea on what would be the ideal "smallest rational possible" quantity or how to go about finding that out.


Manufacturer Price ( ExW) / My Commission
On his website, he has prices quoted for 1 & 2 packets. Price for 8 packets have a reduction of approximately 12.2%. Going by that assumption, I came up with price for 1024 packets [ Hypothetical MOQ ]. The store I bought them from sold it for $5.50/packet 
Now I know the reduction will stop at some point but am not sure what I can expect a reasonable price to be. As I'm writing this, I'm guessing you'll say that I should just take his price quote and get back with reliable and validated test data. 
Should I go with 10% commission as suggested in the class?.
packets

Pricereductionmatrix.xls

JL

On Dec 2, 2016, at 6:31 AM, John Spiers wrote:

On Dec 2, 2016, at 1:03 AM, J L wrote:
Hi John,

So the "Answer matrix" from previous email ( At the end of this email & Thanks for that! ) is an initial Introduction of myself & a proposal on how we can mutually benefit by doing business together. Assuming he's interested, he'll either start getting into specificity then and there

***Yes, and you're best answer is "I don't know... and it will be fun to find out..."  (Will I have to change the packaging? Who in Mexico do you have in mind?)

A N D

No, I don't want or need an exclusive

Yes, you can say forget it... (except for the one, first LCL MOQ FOB)

Yes, you can fire me...  because I am not your employee and don't have anything at riak but some time spent doing something interesting, trying out my learning...

OR will want to think about it and get back to me

***  All I need is weights and measures of say a pallet load, what price YOU want, where I can pick it up from you, and  what would be the lead time, a month?  Then you can think about my export offer, after you see it,  is it something you want out there?  Start your thinking then, when you have something solid to look at.  If you say no, I'll be trying Bison Jerky next, but I like your product more. "***

MOQ
Will the owner provide this?. If I have to come up with MOQ, I have absolutely no idea on what would be the ideal "smallest rational possible" quantity or how to go about finding that out.

***Yes, must...  they have one already for domestic sales, but yours may be bigger, but usually no more than a pallet load.  You see on the template we need the weights and measures (H,L. W each and total) of the cartons, add the pallet height, and the price he wants to earn on the sale (ExW), and his delivery lead time, plus where he wants the goods picked up.  You might just have a rough draft template of the LCL MOQ FOB form with those blanks highlighted to email him, so if he asks how you want to proceed, you can just email him that .pdf.

Smallest rational really gets to logistics cost; if you get 100% more product for 5% more logistics cost (FF will point this out), then yes, jack up the qty to make the offer more attractive, but no, never a full container load...  two pallets is max for a test, and we are testing at this point in the export game.  There is back and forth on the LCL MOQ FOB development.  Measure twice, cut once....  remember, you are stuck with your lcl moq fob through 100 inquiries...***


Manufacturer Price ( ExW) / My Commission
On his website, he has prices quoted for 1 & 2 packets. Price for 8 packets have a reduction of approximately 12.2%. Going by that assumption, I came up with price for 1024 packets [ Hypothetical MOQ ]. The store I bought them from sold it for $5.50/packet 
Now I know the reduction will stop at some point but am not sure what I can expect a reasonable price to be. As I'm writing this, I'm guessing you'll say that I should just take his price quote and get back with reliable and validated test data. 

****Precisement!  You are testing prices too.  The higher the better.  You get data back from your effort, for future reference, iterations.***

Should I go with 10% commission as suggested in the class?.
Yes.


His discount is probably an example of the folly of price cutting, he has no economies of scale to offer...  it probably costs him close to your 64 box discount....

Just take his price and work with it...

And make sure you keep records of all of this activity with the potential supplier.  You add this to your rolodex of your contacts in the international trade of specialty chips.

As usualy feel free to email...

This is fun...

John


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Friday, December 2, 2016

LCL MOQ FOB Partial Colloquy

On Dec 2, 2016, at 1:03 AM, LL wrote:

Hi John,
Thanks for another fantastic session this Tuesday. I have mailed out the initial letter and wanted to be prepared just incase she calls me before our scheduled time this Tuesday. I have started a different email thread since we are on the next phase and also makes it easier.  

So the "Answer matrix" from previous email ( At the end of this email & Thanks for that! ) is an initial Introduction of myself & a proposal on how we can mutually benefit by doing business together. Assuming she's interested, she'll either start getting into specificity then and there

***Yes, and you're best answer is "I don't know... and it will be find to find out..."  (Will I have to change the packaging?Who in Mexico do you have in mond?)

A N D

No, I don't want or need and exclusive

Yes, you can say forget it... (except for the one, first LCL MOQ FOB)

Yes, you can fire me...  because I am not your employee and don't have anything but some time spent doing something interesting, trying out my learning, at risk...

OR will want to think about it and get back to me

***  All I need is weights and measures of say a pallet load, what price YOU want, where I can pick it up from you, and  what would be the lead time, a month?  Then you can think about my export offer, after you see it,  is it something you want out there?  Start your thinking then, when you have something solid to look at.  If you say no, I'll be trying Bison Jerky next, but I like your product more. "***

OR will ask me on how I want to proceed [ I'm assuming you'll say "Right Now over the phone" 🙂 ].  Was hoping me you can give me some guidelines on the following details which I think will be fundamental to our discussions and If there's something else you think might come up in the discussion and is important, please let me know

MOQ
Will the owner provide this?. If I have to come up with MOQ, I have absolutely no idea on what would be the ideal "smallest rational possible" quantity or how to go about finding that out.

***Yes, must...  they have one already for domestic sales, but yours may be bigger, but usually no more than a pallet load.  You see on the template we need the weights and measures (H,L. W each and total) of the cartons, add the pallet height, and the price she wants to ear on the sale (ExW), and her delivery lead time, plus where she wants the goods picked up.  You might just have a rough draft template of the LCL MOQ FOB form with those blanks highlighted to email her, so if she asks how you want to proceed, you can just email her that .pdf.

Smallest rational really gets to logistics cost; if you get 100% more product for 5% more logistics cost (FF will point this out), then yes, jack up the qty to make the offer more attractive, but no, never a full container load...  two pallets is max for a test, and we are testing at this point in the export game.  There is back and forth on the LCL MOQ FOB development.  Measure twice, cut once....  remember it, you are stuck with it through 100 inquiries...***

More to follow...

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Friday, November 25, 2016

Black Friday

In business, black means good, as in black ink, positive balance, as opposed to red ink, negative balance.  The day after Thanksgiving in USA is called Black Friday because for many retailers it was the day they turned from a negative balance to a positive balance. the cash registers running red hot.

Mish has a post on how all this is changing, with the obligatory hype regarding internet "sales."

I call it hype, since predictions, that never quite pan out in the future, are presented as earth shattering, and never do the analysts report the two salient factors:

1. What is the net profit of the Black Friday sales? If the draw is loss-leaders, then what is the net?  For all of the extra overhead, what money do you get that you would have not gotten otherwise?

2. When will they report internet sales net of returns?  Never.

How important is Black Friday?  Let's look at an authentic larger retailer, whose model has thrived for over 80 years, through thick and thin.  It is a sporting goods store, thriving while the likes of dinosaur Sports Authority has come and gone in a fraction of that time frame.

Such is the effect of ex nihilo credit.  Nothing from nothing is nothing.

Like last Black Friday,  this Black Friday REI will be closed.

For authentic retailers, Black Friday does not matter.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Monday, November 21, 2016

Is Internet Sales Just Mail Order Self-Service?

For all his precoccious perspicacity, Mish can make seom glaring errors.  Maybe it is just his age and wasn't there.
Retailer inventory-to-sales is a reflection on a huge move towards online shopping and a massive buildup of new retail stores despite the clear shift towards online shopping.
Whoa, Mish... what huge move to online shopping?  Still no more than roughly 6% of retail sales, what is massive about that?  94% is brick and mortar, and even Amazon is opening brick and mortar stores.   And maybe ex nihilo credit dinosaurs are not opening new, but specialty sure are.

And did the internet really take sales from brick and mortar?  I don't think so.  To what degree did online sales cannibalize its market share from mail order catalogs?  

And even the mail order catalogs are still working, in both senses, operating and profitable.

Victoria Secret as $4.5 billion in "online sales" and 450 million catalogs.  Do you know what it cost to open enveopes and prcisses cheacks and credit cards back in the 80's and 90's?  I don't know, but VS remembers.  I was probably in the hundreds of millions at least.  With the internet VS pushed all that order processing back onto their customers, getting that work done free, money not spent that went straight to the bottom line.  Alaska Airlines saves a lot of money now that I book my flights, not resevation clerks. Ka-ching!

Or did they save money?  The easier online shopping gets, the more returns there are.  All these "sales figures" don't take into account returns.  I never see that mentioned.

I was speaking with an international banker once asking if deflation was a problem.  He waived the question off and said "Everybody is lying.   that is the huge problem. We cannot make a loan decision because we cannot trust the information."  Well, with ex nihilo credit, nothing matters, so why not lie?  About such things as sales figures.

People try to copy people losing money on the internet, like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gate. Learn from the people making money, like Les Wexner and Steve Jobs.  It is unlikely the Hegemon will find you like he did the money-losers, but the Hegemon won't get in the way of you making money like Wexner and Jobs.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.


Sunday, October 23, 2016

Copycat Follies - Part Two

Yesterday in part one, we began reviewing an article featuring a fellow complaining of copycats.  I promised to follow up on this part and the rest:
In some cases, factories will make products that physically resemble ones made by prominent brands. Quality may vary... ...Other times, a Chinese partner factory will produce extra units of a product they agreed to make for another company, and sell the surplus items themselves online or to other vendors.
Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, drew criticism when he told investors in June (paywall) that fake goods “are of better quality and of better price than the real names” and come from “exactly the same factories” as authentic goods. But there’s some truth to his comments.
Yes, true, but no, not a problem.

Scenario one: products that physically resemble the original of varying quality.  When was the last time you went shopping for something that "physically resembles what you want, but is of varying quality?"  Not recently?  Can't recall.  Now there is the problem.  People who want the real thing will buy it.  People who do not care, or cannot afford the real thing, will not.  Those who trade in product that physically resembles the original but of varying quality, do not sell to the customers of the original.  They sell to those no one else wants, product no one else offers.

Keep in mind factories must design, finance, produce, market and deliver the goods.  It is not as though they do no work for their money.  They just go after market no one else wants.  Why waste any time stopping that which has nothing to do with you?

Scenario Two: A factory produces more of the real thing than ordered by you, the idea-maker.  You mean to tell me you have created a product, for which there is a market, and you cannot figure out how to meet the entire market?  Obviously if the factory does an overrun to meet a demand, a demand of which you are unaware, then you are losing out for your lack of perspicacity.

You really ought to learn from your supplier how he finds markets you cannot, which you could not perceive.  And then work with them.  There are agreements that effectively encourage our suppliers to make enough to cover the entire world demand, plus pay you, but once you are infected with the disease of rent-seeking as manifested in Intellectual Property Rights conceit, then you cannot move on to the better way.  A way I was taught by those thriving in international trade way back when, and I teach in my seminars.

What the Chinese do is right an just, natural, fee market activity.  Capitalists immediately draw on racism when they are confronted with people behaving well.
Many analysts and historians have attributed Chinese counterfeiting to perceived aspects of Chinese culture like its emphasis on memorization in education, or an authoritarian government that stifles innovation.
You see, according to the rent-seekers, there is something wrong with Chinese people. They are counterfeiters. Never mind that they are not, no one has established that they are, by any definition of the word.  Let's just proceed from the basis that we get everything, no one else gets anything.

Let's not. Instead, pause for a second, take a deep breath, and proceed as if there is nothing inherently wrong with being Chinese.
(Shenzhen's) rise throughout the ’90s and early ’00s coincided with a boom in outsourcing among global multinational corporations. Instead of overseeing all the manufacturing of all the parts inside a product, large global hardware companies signed contracts with local manufacturers in Shenzhen to make and design products piecemeal. These contractors would then turn to smaller sub-contractors to help fill orders.
Here inadvertently, we come back to a fundamental point in international trade.  What we exploit when we import is cheap management.  Not cheap labor.  All that work that is management-intensive, we off-shore to people who do it better, we exploit.  We exploit cheap management in international trade, not cheap labor.  Trade patterns confirm this.

But to the text: Subcontractors is nothing new, anywhere.  When you want a house remodelled, there is the general contractor, and subcontractors.  Of course.
Many of the factories involved in these fragmented supply chains were small, family-owned entities operating without government approval. As they worked together, they realized they could do more than just supply parts that ended up in name-brand hardware. They could create rival products on their own, and reach customers who were too poor to buy a Nokia phone or Apple iPod, said Lindtner.
Here we go again.  There is something wrong with Chinese people.  They work without government approval.  Better to have 90 million boys in USA living in their mom's basements awaiting government approval than anyone actually take any initiative.  Not only that, Chinese people cooperate and create synergies. And with this new found skills, they can create rival products.

You mean like the Japanese who created better cameras than the Germans, and better cars than the Americans, and better fabrics than the British?  Yes, the Chinese will get there too, but we will never see it coming if we presume there is something inherently wrong with people who are Chinese.

If people are too poor to buy Apple or Nokia, then they were never Nokia or Apple customers.  Just what problem is this article addressing?  Hard to say, except another iteration of the scientistic racism and rent-seeking that is essential to capitalism and its devotees.
They banded together, at times sharing the recipes for specific electronic devices on online message boards. Thus began the shanzhai phenomenon, a word that literally means “mountain fortress,” but came to stand for products that skirt existing intellectual property laws. Phones and consumer electronics with names like “aPod” and “Nokla” flooded the market in the late ’00s.
Banded together = Bandits! Yes, every time you turned around, you saw someone on an aPod or Nokla, which flooded the world markets  In fact you probably have a half dozen of each in a drawer somewhere.  Not.
The shanzhai era in consumer electronics gradually faded as incomes rose and brand-name smartphones became more affordable. But it enforced a culture of knowledge-sharing among manufacturers, wherein no single product design is sacred. Lindtner compares the culture of Shenzhen’s manufacturing ecosystem to the open-source movement among software developers. Much like how programmers will freely share code for others to improve upon, Shenzhen manufacturers now see hardware and product design as something that can be borrowed freely and altered. Success in business comes down to speed and execution, not necessarily originality.
No!  You mean free markets actually work, when allowed to?  You mean products start out expensive and over time the prices drop to the point virtually everyone can have access to that goods and services with their own money?  Imagine that.  People worked so hard they put themselves out of business, and are now working on higher-order goods?
“It’s understood that re-iterating or copying is part of the culture, and whoever is better and faster is going to make the deal,” said Lindtner.
You mean good management is important?  That is scary, given USA managements has atrophied to the abysmal.
Nowadays, China’s copycat phenomenon extends well beyond multinational corporations like Gucci or Nokia—startups are affected too. Thanks to the internet, factories and designers looking for the next hit product can easily turn to Kickstarter, Amazon, or Taobao to see what gadgets are hot.
Kickstarter cannot tell you what is hot.  Kickstarter can tell you how much money an idea hs attracted, but there is zero correlation, to date, between funding and success.   The only thing Kickstarter can guarantee is one heck of tax bill on "income" in the for of funds raised on Kickstarter, that few if any "kickstarter success stories" see coming.

As to Amazon and Taobao, it shows you what might be hot and then you can try to sell for less, by means of the profoundly expensive method of online advertising.

Why is it none of the scientistic racists who denigrate free markets ever notice factories must design, finance, produce, market and deliver the goods.  It is not as though they do no work for their money.  They just go after market no one else wants.
They message each other instantly using WeChat, China’s dominant chat app, or Alibaba’s chat software, which makes sourcing and assembly line planning even easier than in the pre-smartphone days.
Well, two things here.  If the Chinese ever get around to cooperating to this degree, then the rest of the world is sunk.  The fact is the reality on the ground is dog eat dog and largely counterproductive efforts. itn is amazing that so much good comes out of Shenzhen in spite of the reality on the ground.  Next, computerization may have simplified some processes, but it has done nothing to make what comes off the lines any better.  Best design still wins.
“Back in the ’80s people were talking about ‘just-in time’ manufacturing” as something to aspire to, he said. “But now, the Chinese don’t even know any other way.”
Well, back in the 70s, and 60s, and 50s...  in fact going back to the Garden of Eden.  Small business has always operated on this basis.  Nothing new or different in Shenzhen.

This whole next section is just weird.  It recognizes reality but refuses to accept it.
Businesses can take certain legal precautions to reduce the risk of getting copied. A first, crucial step, according to Song Zhu, who litigates IP disputes between US and Chinese firms at California-based law firm Ruyak Cherian LLP, is to apply for utility and design patents for a product that’s valid in the US, China, and anywhere else one hopes to sell.
Entrepreneurs should also sign “NNN agreements” with potential Chinese partners before revealing any intellectual property. This contract prevents partner factories from using the intellectual property themselves after first view (“non-use”), sharing it with others (“non-disclosure”), or inking a partnership and then selling extra units on their own (“non-circumvention”).
But even with these protections, there’s no guarantee that you can stop someone from copycatting your product. Zhu said that the problem lies not in China’s courts, but enforcing rulings. Winning a case against one factory is relatively easy. But suing every factory and winning is expensive and time consuming.
Like Islam, the Chinese have not forgotten the culturally superior regime of free markets.  So we start with the unremarkable advice from a lawyer: hire a lawyer.  Over 40 years in this business I have never consulted a lawyer on business, since lawyers know nothing about business.  They simply charge fees for maintaining some fantasy.  Also, why would any sane person, working for a living, want to keep secret an idea he is trying to sell?  Why wouldn't we want subcontractors involved (show it to others) if that is most efficient?  Why would we not want extra units made if a factory see more market than we do, since it is never a problem getting paid for that market too.  As government workers, lawyers assiduously solve problems that do not exist.  And charge for the service.  Not here they say all of the legal help is pointless in a free market, yet they recommend legal help.
“There are probably hundreds of small factories who might see a product on the internet and think ‘Hey I can do this,” said Zhu. “How are you going to shut down all of them? How can you even find out where they are? And the money you spend suing them is more than you can get out of the lawsuit.”
Why would anyone want to shut down any of them?  They are making things you do want to make,
selling them to people to whom you do not want to sell.  The factories must design, finance, produce, market and deliver the goods.  It is not as though they do no work for their money.  Why is the USA so destructive toward people who want to work, helping others?
This is now the position Sherman finds himself in with Stikbox. While he hasn’t pursued legal action yet, he said he spends 20% of his time tracking down copycat factories through China’s giant e-commerce sites. It sometimes takes him up to five days to figure out one factory’s location.
This is classic.  People who have zero reason for thinking an idea is theirs, knowing nothing can effectively be done to enforce their desire for a rent-seeking sinecure, nonetheless wasting time in pursuit of the sinceure.  In this way, one can waste time being a victim, and being a victim is HUGE in USA today.
The spread of copycat manufacturing isn’t just creating headaches for hardware companies and startups. It’s challenging traditional notions of intellectual property—specifically, what type of ideas are valuable, and what type of ideas are not.
Whoa.  Forty years in this business, never got a headache from the "copycats."  There is nothing "traditional" about Intellectual property, it is just a recent innovation in the annals in violent thuggery.  And there never has been , nor ever will be, a challenge to what kind of ideas are valuable, and what are not.  It is really quite simple:  what sells?  And guess what, we can also guage precisely how valuable it is...  by its sales, and profits!  Imagine that!  It is distressing no one associated with this article is aware of that.
Decades ago, a company or entrepreneur might come up with an idea and then spend years securing the patents, completing the design, devising a manufacturing plan, and bringing it to market. Enforceable contracts with partners helped ensure these ideas wouldn’t leak to competitors—but so did the high cost of starting a factory, sourcing components, and managing assembly lines.
Well, yes and no.  That goes on today.... not "only decades ago."  Plus, since 1789, there have been some 7 million patents issued in USA.  Any patent attorney can tell you this:  of those 7 million patents, almost nothing patented ever turns into a product.  Of the extremely rare instance where a patented item actually turns into a product, almost none are ever profitable.  Of the trace amounts of 'success" eery one of those would have been a success anyway, IPR or no.  Any patent attorney can tell you this, but do you think they will?
Moving the world’s manufacturing center to China makes the latter hurdles nearly disappear. Factories are set up in makeshift buildings. Cheap labor is abundant. Sourcing components is easy because of online marketplaces like Alibaba. As a result, smart ideas that are easy to turn into physical products become commoditized quickly.
Nonsense.  Finding reliable suppliers on alibaba is near impossible.  Alibaba is a firehose of wastewater when you want a sip of clear water.  Rarely do the best suppliers allow themselves to be listed on alibaba, world center for scams.  Finding the best supplier has not changed in 40 years, or 4000 years.  And product life cycle of winning products has not changed.    The internet has only created far more litter out there.
Businesses are now forced to come to terms with this new reality. It’s not enough to create a product with a groundbreaking design or features, like a smartphone case that turns into a selfie stick. Companies dealing in the creation of physical goods now must make products that are impossible to copy exactly from the get go, by focusing on a special feature they can protect, or creating a coveted brand name consumers will pay more for.
What nonsense!  There is no new reality to which anyone is forced to come to terms.  Delusional: a smartphone case that turns into a selfie-stick is groundbreaking.  From a delusional base, a solution to a problem that does not exist.  Instead of creating products for customers, the criteria becomes create products that are hard to copy:
“If you have a simple product that has some market demand, you will get copied,” said Benjamin Joffe, who works with hardware startups that are manufacturing in China at HAX, a venture capital fund. “The question is more, what do you actually have that’s defensible?”
No it's not.  The question is do you have customers, not "how can I get a rent-seeking sinecure?"
Companies can defend themselves from copying by investing in software that complements physical hardware, and then guarding it. Apple, for example, does this with the iPhone, which carries the proprietary iOS operating system that’s unavailable on other phones. Or they can invest in well-crafted branding and marketing. 
More nonsense.  Companies defend themselves by serving the customers they want, and not bothering with anyone serving customers they do not want.  For example...  Apple.
Hong Kong-based startup Native Union, for example, created an earpiece for smartphones that looks like an old-fashioned, crescent-shaped landline phone receiver.
I first saw that in the 1990s, and 100 times since.  (As you go through the images, notice these were done for flip phones, all the way back to old Motorola brick phones.) So the example this writers uses is one of a "start-up" with an ancient idea. (The writer could not take .043 seconds to google search this fact?) This is common, come up with a completely unoriginal idea, and then complain others stole it from you. Based on this, the advice is...
Founder Igor Duc later changed the company’s direction and began making a totally different product—smartphone cases made out of Italian marble that sell for $80 each. They’re more difficult to make than the average consumer electronic device, which prevents copycats from surfacing.
So design based on a problem that does not exist, not based on customer demand.  I wonder if he has asked anyone if they will pay $80 for a smartphone case that is very heavy, will crack easily, and will inhibit reception?  I would recommend he does just that, but according to the universe in which these and very many people live, the criteria for market success is difficulty to copy, not customer demand. 

Joffe, the venture capital investor, argues that some companies might even benefit from copycatting, as it can bring more awareness to the product itself. “If you have more customers buying the fake product then it creates more awareness for the real product, and it becomes an aspirational thing. At some point they might be able to afford the real thing.”
Yes, Karl Lagerfeld calls knock-offs of his Chanel designs free advertising. This too is nothing new.  It's just people who got JDs or MBAs have never learned anything about business.  But eventually they too learn how it is done, how it has always been done.
“There are other selfie stick cases but we are the only ones that have been copied. So it shows that our product is worth being copied,” he said. “The quote that comes to mind is, ‘Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.’”
Again, as if this is his idea to begin with, as if even if it was, any of his ideas have a place in the real world, as if his selfie stick is the only one copied (how the hell would he know?), and as if copying proves market.  This article is exemplary as to what we've lost with the introduction of ex nihilo credit, two generations who have no idea how to do business.
Yet Sherman estimates that he has lost “hundreds of thousands” of dollars in potential revenue due to copycats. Imitation isn’t just a sincere form of flattery, it’s an expensive one as well.
You can't lose what you never had.  But he should lose, along with those associated with this article, the delusional world they have constructed, in which they are tormented by problems that do not exist.

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Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Cal Poly SLO Live, In Person Import Start-up Boot Camp Oct 29, 2016

You should register soon for the all-day start-up intensive at Cal Poly SLO.  The seminar is filling up fast. You can get going in international trade in a one day live, in-person intensive held at Cal Poly SLO, which is exactly midway between San Francisco and Los Angeles, so it serves both communities as well as the Central Coast.  Make a weekend of it in beautiful San Luis Obispo.

Here are the registration details...

Image result for cal poly slo

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Saturday, September 24, 2016

October 15 San Francisco Import Export Start Up Boot Camp

Join us in San Mateo, California Saturday, October 15, 2016, from 9am to 5 pm for a all-day, in person, intensive boot camp import export start-up seminar.

Here is the link to the registration and information,  and feel free to email me directly anytime regarding the seminar.  My email is on the upper right under "Have a question for John? Ask him here..."

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Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Start Your Business Start-up Now

There are innovators, there are retailers, but the link between the two, the sales force in which the communication channels have resided, has atrophied. The economy needs to recover, and we have people innovating, and retailers groping out changing customer demand.

The missing link is the sales process, lost with the two generations that went in F I R E . Selling establishes the rationale for the buy, something necessary when money is scarce. When banks lend credit, not money, the delusion is there is no scarcity.  All can be afforded, no selling is necessary, just order-taking.  Salesmanship atrophied.

Integral to the sales process is the feedback mechanism, which communicates to the innovators what demand the retailers have discovered (or is at least worth testing with new offers.)

Sales is not my thing, but I think I am an excellent consumer of good salesmanship, and therefore qualified to teach just that.

Along the lines of renaissance sales reps have re-organized themselves in Seattle into a new rep association....  I've been watching them and the moves seem right.  I am seeing a resurgence of the boutique, the shopping preference for the high-maintenance.

With the fax machine anyone could order flowers from Colombia, and have them here in 24 hours....  but local flowers are competitive.  A retired flower shop owner told me there is a resurgence in the 4am flower auction, a small biz staple 40 years ago.

Business start-up based on customers is my unique approach.  If you wish to thrive in spite of the coming crash, don't hoard gold, stock up on guns 'n ammo, or bury food supplies.  No!  Start a business.

I've been teaching that for 35 years on the side, and I am highly rated by past participants for content, pace and humor, with (so far) unlimited follow-up.

There are several options, live or online classes, for you to consider here.  eMail me if you have any questions.

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Thursday, September 1, 2016

Next New Concept Testing V Food Export Seminar

New Hope has trademarked (ungh!) the tern "Next" (really?!) They offer a "Concept Test" to tell you if your B2B initiative will be successful "before you invest."  This is not possible I think, but they are giving 20% off through October.  Maybe because it is not possible.

It's not possible for three reasons: 

A. A study can never predict the future.  Coca Cola spent one billion dollars circa 1985 introducing new Coke, only to have the most famous fail in marketing history.  Show me statistically significant proof of the "Concept Test" and "Success."  I say it cannot be there.

B. The study is invalid to begin with, since the population surveyed is consumers, and the customers for B2B are businesses.  What consumers say, and what they will do with their money, are two different things.  The businesses to whom they should address their surveys will say "Who knows? Gotta test it."  I am sure the reason they do not survey B2B customers is any such survey would be impertinent to the sales process.

C. To be successful, you must do the work.  This is so self-evident, in the thirty plus years I have been lecturing on the side I have never said "I will make you successful."  I say only, "here is what I learned, here are the steps."  The steps are valid and reliable. Whether or not someone takes the steps is not up to me. I can only offer email support to those who are taking the steps and may have questions or need more coaching.   

I have never made anyone successful, at best I can save entrepreneurs time and money getting to their goals.  Indeed, you can get to your goals with virtually no money and little time, if the steps are followed.   If anyone says they can do more, I'd like to see how.  (And if their claim is false, I can quickly see how too!)

I guess I have two advantages:  I don't teach for a living, so I don't need to oversell this; and my entire career is trade for a living, so I know what you actually have to do to get customers.

The only way to know what a market thinks is go to your customers, B2B, and ask for an order.  If no order, then you have practical feedback upon which you can act.  You spend your time and money on adjusting based on what professional buyers say, not consumer surveys.

At some point in the game you must face a customer, even if you have paid your Next Concept Test fees.  There is no reason why the first thing you do cannot be face a customer.  Indeed, there are easy tactics to get in front of buyers before you put a dime into your idea.

You have to turn over a lot of information before you find out what they charge for the New Hope Next Concept Test, so I have no idea.  I bet is more than the $89 I charge for a seminar to find customers, that goes to customers first.  And I just need an email and a billing address, email for the course, billing address to bill you after the course.

Yes, my seminar is about exporting food and beverage, either as a principal or an agent, but the tools tactics and attitudes work anywhere, anytime.  Even domestically.  Indeed, in one part of the seminar you will compare domestic to overseas potential.  Check out assessing domestic potential based on current sales.

My seminar is online and open to anyone on planet earth, and indeed, I get people from all over.  I lead the live, online seminar. Your next opportunity to attend is:

Tuesdays, 6-7pm Pacific Time, Oct 11-Nov 1, 2016.

And you can register now and I'll bill you later, after the course begins.

http://www.johnspiers.com/Export_Agriculture/Register%21.html

Get in front of customers first.  Then adjust as necessary.

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Tuesday, August 16, 2016

How To Play Retail Downturn

Now these must always be read in terms of big business, since that is what the government and media and academia care about.  But the news about them is useful to us.
Nearly 60 percent of the decrease in prices for final demand services is attributable to
margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing, which fell 6.0 percent. The indexes
for machinery and equipment wholesaling; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; food retailing;
loan services (partial); and automotive fuels and lubricants retailing also declined.
So at WalMart, Kohls, Footlocker, Macy's, etc... the prices you pay are falling. 6% is a huge drop.  That's tar pits for the dinosaurs grew on mal-credit.  And dinosaurs cannot adjust to an organically growing market:

From the rise of the casual camper to the boutique fitness boom, it can feel like there have never been more people in the market for sports apparel. As of 2015, sporting goods stores in the US were bringing in as much as $48 billion in annual revenue, according to IBISWorld, up from $39.8 billion in 2012. Sports participation is up, too. According to Euromonitor, participation in high school sports has increased from 25 percent to 35 percent over the last 35 years, with nearly double the number of female students playing sports as compared to the 1980s.
"My needs evolved, but in many ways, Sports Authority hasn't."
But there's a stark gap between an increasing customer base and many sports retailers — a gap that only continues to widen, no matter how many times companies see new ownership or rethink their businesses. As Hermina puts it, "My needs evolved, but in many ways, Sports Authority hasn't."

It's not as though Sports Authority has no idea of the trends in the marketplace, they buy the $50,000 Euromonitor reports that tell them so.  It's just that Sports Authority has a hired and trained personnel, infrastructure, logistics and relationships that cannot be repurposed to meet the changes in a world where borrowing malcredit and get-big-or-get-out is over.  Any more than Jeb Bush could repurpose himself in a Republican party base that wants a Donald Trump.
There are an incredible number of national and regional multi-brand sports retailers in America: Dick's Sporting Goods, Cabela's, Champs Sports, Bass Pro Shops, REI, Academy Sports, Modell's, and Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation, to name a few — and these are just the ones that still exist today.

The least savvy, like Sports Authority, was no authority on what sportsfolk buy.  Gone. Now Big 5 will see a temporary bump-up in sales as people who thought "Sports Authority" as the solution, a dwindling group to be sure, googles the nearest Big 5 and buys the soccer shoes or Nike Spandex.  That is a mixed list.  Within that list is REI, a co-op.  It will thrive regardless of the economy.

As with all crowded markets, the sporting goods industry eventually hit a saturation point, and competition forced many stores to either close or be bought by bigger companies. The '70s and '80s saw many mergers and acquisitions in the space, and they just kept coming. Eastern Mountain Sports, for example, was founded by rock climbers Alan McDonough and Roger Furst in 1967. It was first sold to The Franklin Mint in 1979, which was subsequently bought by Warner Communications, and then sold to private firm American Retail Group. With financial backing from investors J.H. Whitney & Co., EMS chief executive Will Manzer bought control of the company in 2004, and then sold it to Vestis Retail Group in 2012, after Vestis had already acquired Sports Chalet and Bob's Stores. (Vestis was formed by Versa Capital Management, a firm best known for turning around sinking brands.)

There was no saturation.  The amount of local sporting goods stores was pitch-perfect to the market.  What happened is what you see above, roll-up artists borrowing malcredit to buy up all of the players.  by the late 1980s, after the S&L bailout, it was clear "who who borrowed the most wins."  So start up a pure play:

In the case of Sports Authority, it was founded in Florida in 1987, and was briefly owned by KMart in the the early '90s before it merged in 2003 with Gart Sports, a Denver, Colorado business that was founded in 1928. Gart had been through several mergers of its own, including with Hagan's Sports and Stevens Brown in 1987, as well as with Chicago-based Sportmart in 1997 and Houston-based Oshman's in 2001. In 2006, Sports Authority also bought Copeland's Sports, a California business in bankruptcy — the same year it was eventually bought by private equity investment firm Leonard Green & Partners.
Well, these false economy monsters are now dying, since the false economy os going down.  This brings up a thought, is there a LIFO rule here, last in first out?  Someone should do a review of the dinosaur bankruptcies and see if there is a pattern.

Now here are a couple of quotes, surprisingly juxtaposed:
"The lines between wholesale and retail faded from black and white to gray to nonexistent," Greg Baldwin, vice president of merchandising at sporting goods chain Schuylkill Valley Sports, told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "I now compete with 90 percent of my suppliers via e-commerce, physical stores, or a combination of the two. The importance of the retailer as a pipeline to the consumer has been greatly diminished."
And then
Today's consumers are looking for specificity, both in terms of function and also aesthetic. The everything-to-everybody nature of huge multi-brand retailers no longer appeals; department stores across America are struggling with this new reality as well.
People looking for specificity in function and aesthetic default-buy mass produced Nike for lack of a better product (as I default buy Apple, the least bad.)  That he has to compete with Nike stores and Nike online is no surprise.  The real question is the goods represented by the 10% of his suppliers with whom he does not compete online or otherwise, what is his volume, profit margin and turnover.  I can pretty much guarantee this is his best performing segment.

That 10%, obviously small specialty suppliers, figured out how to reach Schuylkill Valley Sports, as well as enough other small retailers to thrive.  In every industry we have countless examples of this, and at the same time we have so many more people who could be producing goods and services for the domestic market, except for the sales networks that atrophied under the malcredit regime.

But they are coming back, representing a means for the design creative to connect with the retail creative, an organic market.

If Jobs had to open Apple stores because as late as 2002 there were no computer stores that felt like Saks 5th Avenue, and Nike had to open stores for the same reason, then that was a failure of the retailers.

Elsewhere here I have advised startups to sublease space in retailers to get started.  Here is another example:
Dick's has taken this to heart by developing stronger partnerships with big brands and rolling out shop-in-shops like a trend-focused "Nike Field House" and a dedicated "Under Armour All-American" section in its stores. As a result, the selection at Dick's has became more enticing, and also more expensive.
Yes, if you sell what people want, they will pay more for it.  if it is not quite right, they need a discount to buy.  In any event, make your agreement very short term, month to month, because as the article notes, Dick's chances of succeeding are slim.

The problem to solve is to rebuild the link between the design creative and the retail creative.  We lsot two generations of entrepreneurs to F I R E.   Many o these natural salesfolk went into false economy Finance, Investment and Real Estate sales.  Sure, they carved out a portion of the malcredit for themselves, but their investments are now tallied in credit in the very bubbles in which they were instrumental in inflating: stocks, real estate, etc.  When that goes pffffft, it will be good to have them back.

When more small biz retail-creativ are offering more of that 10% unique, there will be more design-creative folk drawn into the remunerating work.

The article predictably assumes the false premise that online sales are a threat to brick and mortar.  We've eliminated that false premise on this blog, so people can proceed from factual bases.  Although this comment is tainted, it is otherwise sound:
"Retailers in general have a huge advantage over Amazon in that they have physical stores and they are able to actually raise an emotional response," says Sam Cinquegrani, the founder and CEO of digital marketing firm ObjectWave. "These stores need to understand the opportunity and leverage that because they have way more to offer. Once they think in those terms, competing with Amazon becomes a different type of exercise."
The taint "digital marketing firm" is a false economy exercise if ever there was one.  But the point is spot-on.  Amazon is simply a massive, unprofitable, mail order catalog and online self-serve check-out system.   If retailers simply do what they have always done, 20% new, 80% mainstream, they do fine.  Malcredit disrupted that by shifting the "new" from design to price.  Now the dinosaurs are stuck with a infrastructure that offers little of interest at any price.  There is no way they can cash in on what is coming back: personal relationships, that which atrophied as malcredit grew.

For a startup, a few points:

1. Stay away form the biggies, don't you supply them.  Sure, give Dick's 6% of the gross for a month long trunk show in their stores, so you can make money testing your new ideas.  This is no different than those people with folding tables in Costco for three days selling some local products.

2. There is a vacuum being created by a death like Sports Authority, but Big 5 gets most of the temporary benefit.  A tiny sliver of permanent benefit go to specialty retailers.  The tiny sliver is huge when given the base size of the specialty retailer.

3. The dead inventory in the pipeline, plus the excess in peoples storage lockers, is all inventory that must be disposed.  Two things, prices will fall and used needs to be moved with new, causing more downward pressure.  (Walmart is testing upscale used stores!)  Specialty retailers need to keep a section for used, like Powell's books.

4. Compete on design.  Give the specialty, small retailers a supply of what they need.  Trade on the smallest quantities rational, not the largest order possible.  The trick is frequency and iteration, not volume.

In any event, get your business going.

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Sunday, June 12, 2016

Internet Trends Nonsense

Mary Meeker was a stock analyst disgraced in the 1999-2000 stock boom/bust.  She is back, this time as a "internet trends" maven.

Now, apparently, she is preaching to the choir, since the comments section is full of adoring admirers.  There wasn't a sentence of her talk that I would not challenge, for instance, internet is now 10% of retail.  Prove it.  As one who gives all day public lectures, I also understand the technique she is using, the drone on talk, a quasi-hypnosis technique, where people just take in highlights, and see what they already hope one slides.  It's a replay of Apple's 1984 ad, except it's missing the mallet-thrower.

People must be stating that which I thought only I was saying out loud, they internet marketing does not work by any measure.  She said "internet advertising does work…" (emphasis hers, the lady doth protest too much methinks) and goes on to point out a vineo (or something) that got 10 million views.

Views aren't sales.

Her examples are all government programs, like google, or if not, simply survivorship bias victims.

Mary Meeker is still in the business of telling the delusional what they want to hear.  Before millions put their lifesavings where she said they should and lost much, there was a worldwide settlement fund set up.  Today she plays it safer, she simply tells them to drone on, everything you hope is coming your way anyway.

Huge applause.  Demands for more.



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Friday, May 6, 2016

Trade Show Metrics

I like metrics, so when I read this I was delighted:
Meeting with a prospect at a tradeshow costs an average of $142. Meeting that same prospect at a his or her office costs $259. Social media and online channels have overtaken more traditional face-to-face meetings, but tradeshows can still pay off for those willing to work to get the most out of their investment.
These are averages and you can always beat them.  My metric for trade show participation is the show must generate in sales ten times the cost of the event. A $10,000 show cost must gain $100,000 in orders at the show.  If not, you must beef up the more effective (if slower) marketing efforts, before going to shows (or lower costs of the show by JV a booth, etc.)

The assertion rearding social media overtaking "more tradtiional" is unwarranted. Cite the studies.  CErtainly far more people waste time on facebook, etc than sell then ever before, but it is no replacement for results.  People who have Smart Phones have no idea what they are missing.

(If the "costs $259" citation link does not work, here it is...  http://www.sageworld.com/blog/index.php/2015/05/14/suppliers-18-powerful-statistics-on-the-value-of-exhibiting-at-tradeshows/   )

This paragraph is problematic, a false dilemma...
"If I find out...you're not a qualified person for my booth, I don't say, 'All right, Kerry, you're not qualified, you're not going to be interested in our product, see you later,' because you'll have a bad negative experience with me, and you'll talk to someone who's qualified later and say, 'You shouldn't talk to company ABC, they were rude to me.'"
The choice is not keep talking to someone who is wasting both of your time, the choice is either end the conversation or waste time.  You can end the conversation nicely or not, and nicely is to hand the person the LCL MOQ FOB and welcome them to come back when they can place an order.

I have a .pdf with a decision tree on when to attend a trade show to sell, and in what capacity at what level.  Feel free to email me for a copy.

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Monday, May 2, 2016

Mail Order Catalogs Outperform eMarketing by Far

Marketing online costs about 4 times as much (and likely far more) to gain sales than mail order catalog. Here are the numbers:

Total USA retail sales for 2014 about $4.5 trillion.  (Retail flat for 2014)

About 6 billion dollars spent on mail order catalogs in USA in 2014.

Mail order sales total 2014.  $125 billion

About 57 billion dollars spent on online advertising in 2014.

Online sales total 2014,  $300 billion.

So, at first glance, it looks like it takes nearly ten times as much money to generate about 2.5 times the sales.  But actually it costs far more...

According to USCensus, that is about 7.4% of all USA sales.  According to pro-online marketing emarketer.com,  5.8%.
While brick-and-mortar sales still command a vast majority of the retail market—nearly $4.27 trillion in 2013—ecommerce sales are increasing much faster, contributing significantly to retail’s overall growth throughout our forecast period. eMarketer estimates that US retail ecommerce sales will increase 15.5% in 2014 to reach $304.1 billion, up from $263.3 billion in 2013. That growth will represent more than 20% of this year’s $199.4 billion increase in total retail sales.
Ecommerce still represents a small portion of overall retail sales—a mere 5.8% last year.
First note the varying figures or percents, whichever one you accept, rather proves online marketing is a fools' paradise. Why market where only say 8% of your market exists?  Why not market where 92% of your market shops?  Why market where and when is costs so much more to gain a customer? But as to the uncertain numbers, here is one reason why people have such a disastrously misinformed view of online marketing:
The past year online was another good one for Nordstrom Inc. as the web now accounts for 19% of total sales.
Not a single mention of the fact that Nordstrom sends millions of catalogs a year driving people to purchase, who then elect to use the self-service check out online.  It was not the web marketing that got the sale, it was the mail order catalog.  The article makes "lemonade out of lemons" by saying the high return rate due to EZ ordering brings people into the stores where they make returns.  Well if the return is for the right size of what they ordered online, that is hardly worth the added cost of online sales maintenance.  This is just one article of millions in which people not trained to test claims become socially conditioned to accept sheer nonsense.

Victoria Secret does $1.5 billion online and sends out 400 million catalogs per year.  Yet that gets counted for "internet sales."  it would not happen without the catalog, yet people assume it is just a website and google ads.  Pure socially conditioned nonsense.

Here is an article with some insights on retail and online:
In today's edition of the print-isn't-dead argument, global and online-only retailers are reporting that mailed catalogs still drive sales like crazy. WSJ reports that 2013 witnessed the first upward trend in number of catalogs mailed since 2007, and retailers show no signs of slowing down.
While email marketing gives retailers just the space of a subject line to attract potential customers, stylized lifestyle catalogs that could nearly double as fashion magazines have proved to be wildly popular in an internet-driven culture. Pat Connolly, the chief marketing officer at Williams-Sonoma, admitted that the catalog was still an extremely important part of Williams-Sonoma's overall marketing plan. According to WSJ, the retailer has a database of 2,000 privately owned houses that it uses for catalog photo shoots and over half of Williams-Sonoma's marketing budget is spent on catalog production and mailing.
Do you think Williams Sonoma minds is internet pure-play customers struggle to survive and do not represent demand for catalog creation houses? And this from the same article, regarding pure play internet ecommerce sites:
Online-only menswear retailer Bonobos has also witnessed the ability of the mailed catalog to drive sales. Craig Elbert, the VP of marketing for Bonobos, said that 20% of first-time customers placed an order after receiving a catalog and they spend 1.5x more than customers who didn't receive a catalog first. Bonobos tested the concept over a year ago and has been putting out catalogs ever since, increasing the circulation each time.
British retailer Boden has calculated the power that the catalog has to keep a customer's attention much longer then an email blast or iPad app. Shanie Cunningham, head of U.S. marketing for Boden, told WSJ that shoppers spend up to 15 to 20 minutes with the catalog, while only spending around eight seconds with a Boden email and five minutes with the Boden app.
Plus, the catalog is cost-effective to produce. The article reported that the average catalog costs less than a dollar to make, while typically resulting in about $4 in sales for every catalog mailed. The moral of the story: even with the internet, we still really like to look at pretty pictures for prolonged periods of time and then try our best to cop the look. Who knew.
Who knew?  Well anyone with an organic true economy business, and not one where you just borrow massive malcredit and play at business.  These guys are making it because they took the time to see online marketing is not effective.  They want to stay in business.

The claims of efficacy of online advertising are always the most tortured circumlocutions.  Here are random findings from studies.  Note no one asks or answers the basic question above.

In the 1980s the big fear was mail order catalogs were going to wipe out brick and mortar:
The effect of these and other advances was a 300 percent increase in nonstore retail sales between 1980 and 1990. Indeed, from just $72 billion in 1980, sales in mail-order houses skyrocketed to $211 billion by 1990, representing average annual growth rate of more than 11 percent. By the end of the decade, catalog and mail-order shipments were responsible for about 10 percent of all merchandise sales, more than 3 percent of retail sales, and 1 percent of consumer services sales. Furthermore, trade in the industry represented nearly 2 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
The wipe out of brick and mortar by mail order catalogs in the 1980s never happened.  And if online sales were ever going to grow above 8% it would have by now.  It will never happen.  And if and when people properly define terms and categories, and not ascribing to ecommerce what is really mail order catalog sales, then online marketing will look even more doubtful. If ecommerce marketing worked, wouldn't Apple be doing it?

Nothing has changed with the internet, except massive expansion of false economy, FIRE.  A rather expensive self-checkout option is available, and gee-whiz!  Reflecting sanity among small business owners, most USA businesses have no web presence at all.

I do, mostly to test claims and try out my own ideas.  I wish it were true that eMarketing worked.  And I would never say just because I cannot get it to work, neither can you.  I quote those actually trying the work says it does not work, they say so themselves. I provide the facts from the hard numbers. If you plan to have an "internet only" business, say buy on alibaba and sell on Amazon or any other combo, it won't work.  You'll need a paper ad mailed out to your customer base to reach absolute minimal performance.  Selling to brick and mortar remains the only viable means to thrive in business, to reach your potential.

If you want the absolute most cost effective means of mail order marketing (with a website check out?) the USPO has a new service.  You can mail cheap to exactly your demographics at the carrir route level.  Check it out, and nose around.  The USPO sent me a catalog on this and I spoke to a salesperson on the phone.  1975 all over again.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.