North Korea and China

Re: [spiers] North Korea and China

>Why isn't China offering a solution to the North Korean crisis.<

Interesting question Anthony. The people I listen to believe the Chinese are
doing what IS in their best interest by doing very little. The NK is a hollow
shell of a government. Too much pressure collapses the regime. If NK fails
millions of starving, penniless NK citizens cross the border into China and
South Korea. They bring not only their poverty but 55 years of "brain washing"
into societies which are ill equipped to absorb them.

>They would not want to see one of their trading partners, ie South Korea,
Japan, US, nuked.... right? It would be a disaster for everyone.<

True, it would be a disaster for everyone but the anticipated "social nuking" of
China and S. Korea seem to them just as bad. We know the nuclear half-life of
atomic material; i.e. Very long. We still do not know the half-life of social
upheaval in China.

What Washington admits to being afraid of is nuclear material and technology
sales to the "bad guys". This is predictable. China will likely not face that
problem for a few years to come. In the meantime, China can wait and try to
control the degradation of NK while hoping for the best. I think the Chinese are
neither as passive or helpless as they appear publicly. History records many a
coup d'etat which produces a more manageable government in the short run.
Communism in China outlived the fall of the Soviet Union and 50 years of being
called the Red Menace. I believe they can deal with NK when it is in their best
interest.

R.L. Tietz
(Spiers alumnus)

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