I'd never heard of "twitter" before a Nationalist Public Radio show yesterday in which a fellow was recounting a conference in which the speakers on the stage were founds themselves shouted down by the audience for their obtuse presentation. Forget the details, the phenomenam is what matters.
This is news to me, but apparently people outfitted with certain features on some cell phones can join a on-the-fly discussion group. Where once you sat stupefied in a meeting where leaders discussed some point of interest, now you can share your thoughts with other members of the audience as events unfold. What happens is one learns one is not alone in one's views.
I recall watching Gloria Steinem being interviewed on TV once.
The show host asked a question, and Gloria Steinem pushed her message, regardless of the question asked.
Host: Is equality found in biology or reason, or elsewhere?
Steinem: Stay-at-home-moms are parasites.
Oh. In life, if you like, the rest of the world can conform around you. It seemed so rude.
Of course, we see this in public meetings. Some hot topic will be addressed, the powers that be will put approved idea-vendors on the stage, and you will either submit or leave under the assumption that you must be crazy.
With twitter, people quickly realize they are not crazy. The clown on the stage is the nut. The individual takes courage from the mob. And the people on the stage are shouted down.
Of course,if the people on the stage truly want to address the concerns of the audience, they would employ twitter to survey the audience and ascertain what concerns the audience wants addressed, and more perfectly match the talent on the stage to the needs of the assembled people.
The service business would be to rent out at meetings the devices and software that facilitates all this, and compete on design of an offering that best suits all involved.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
All a- twitter Over New Service Idea
Jobs Go Begging
A reader and small business owner comments:
"In my area it is very difficult to find employees that want to work. "
Which of course is at the heart of the economic crisis we are facing.
From the "something for nothing" Wall Street workers, to the TSA gate-gropers, and countless others merely placeholding, in every area it is very difficult to find employees that want to work. The work that requires one to draw on resources and intelligence, to struggle with right and wrong in a given situation, to take care of yourself so you are able to work, to balance that list of pros and cons and to-do's... ultimately to serve others as best you can, too few know anything about all of that. A job, a paycheck, end of story. Of course a solution has been to hire Mexicans, among whom it is easy to find employees that want to work. If and when that becomes illegal, will USA workers naturally, magically take to agriculture, construction and service work, and fill in the void?
Friday, March 14, 2008
I Heart Forbes
As y'all know, I love Forbes, renown for accuracy and fact-checking, something I wish I was good at.
The March 24 issue features THE RICHEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD, and Bill Gates has fallen to position 3, behind Warren Buffett and Mexican Carlos Slim Helu. There are 1125 Billionaires extent today.
It is occurring to me that exceptional wealth cannot be kept in a free market. In the rare occasions someone does gain exceptional wealth, in a free market they would not have the means to keep it.
I'll have to develop this argument. In the meantime, check out Forbes!
Shiver Me Timbers!
Serena passes on a URL for a site that tracks pirates and their depredations. Makes for fun reading, plus the ads for anti-pirate devices are delightful in their ingenuity.
What's In Your Savings/Pension?
If you want to see graphically what the lies look like, Mish Shedlock has some inside information. Look at just one of WAMU's AAA investment pools. Clear proof the rating agencies, the banks, and the FED are lying, but it is not too late to save your savings. This is what pensions are loaded up with.
But no one that has not already saved their savings will do so. One fellow I know is down some $50,000 in WAMU stock, and could make about half of it back if he were to cash out and short it. It's about $11 now (down from $45) but once it drops below $5 it can no longer be shorted.
He won't of course, he hopes it will rise again. I hope he is right. But my guess is WAMU will not see out 2009, meaning if he leverages double in shorting, he would pay back the stock in pennies a share, if anything.
No Spitzer In The Way
Bear Stearns has spent the last three months lying about the condition of their business, and today the lies could not hold. An Elliott Spitzer would have demanded a pound of flesh, but he is gone, since he cheated on his wife. He did not get to stay like Bill Clinton and Henry Hyde got to stay.
My bet is the stocks keep going down, because these people will keep lying, and when it is over, what is left in the pension is junk and anything good is stored in Switzerland.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
The Germans Want To Meet You
Folks,
Here is an exchange with some Germans, who desire I share it with you...
Hier ist ein Austausch mit einigen Deutschen, die den Wunsch teile ich es mit dir ...
***
Hey John,
after being done with weeks of lots of tasks and examns I am back working on my Business idea.
It would be great if you could forward my email/idea to all of your people. A lot of upcoming designers have given me positive feedback. Some already sent me some designs, like a designer chess game.
Please also ask, whether there is any other German importer on your list. I think it would be very helpful to share some experiences with them.
I am still absolutely fascinated about your email list and follow it closely. So I would be really happy and thankful if we could keep up a dialogue.
I recently read "The 4-Hour Workweek" by Timothy Ferris. Have you read it? What´s your opinion about such books? I would love to get your thoughts about that.
Thank you so much for your precious time John!
Florian
-------- Original-Nachricht --------
> Datum: Thu, 17 Jan 2008 15:34:43 -0800
> Von: John Spiers
> An: "Florian Schmelzer"
> Betreff: Re: Let me introduce myself...;)
> >Hey John:
> >
> >My name is Florian and I am a German business
> >student who took part in your class about a year
> >ago during my academic visit at San Diego State
> >University.
>
>
> >***Vielen Dank, dass Sie mich erinnem!***
>
>
> >I was fascinated by the world of importing as a
> >small business right away and immediately bought
> >your book (if you give good concerts, people
> >will buy your album… ;)). After I returned to
> >Germany I gave your book to a friend of mine who
> >was also thrilled about it. He and I have always
> >had the dream of having our own business. In
> >fact, to try coming up with a good product
> >turned out to be kind of challenging to us. We
> >just could not really come up with anything
> >good, but were still eager to learn about all
> >the processes. That's why we came up with the
> >idea of creating a "designer pool" one day.
>
> ***Faszinierend!***
>
> >
> >So here is what we just started to do. We
> >searched the German Facebook site for design
> >students and just asked them to become part of
> >our pool by sending us their ideas and outlines
> >of innovative products. In return we offered
> >them to handle everything else (interviewing
> >retailers, improvements, finding the best place
> >in the world to have it made, finding sales
> >representatives, etc.). At first we doubted
> >anybody would send us his ideas, but after only
> >a couple of days, we already got plenty of
> >positive response (actually one hundred percent
> >of all responses were positive), as well as the
> >first designers who sent us their ideas. I know
> >you always said that in order to be successful
> >you really have to love the product. But even
> >though it is not our own idea, trust me that we
> >will only choose to work on a product we are
> >going to love in future.
>
> ***Faszinierende ... Sondern hängen ... Schritt zurück und
> Sehen, was Sie tun ... Dies ist ein Service,
> Nicht ein Produkt, das tun, was Sie gerne in der Produkt-ODER
> Service ... Und Sie natürlich gerne, was Sie haben,
> Made .. age quod agis ... (Translation...: Fascinating... but hang on... step back and
> look at what you are doing... this is a service,
> not a product, do what you love in product OR
> service... and you obviously love what you have
> made... age quod agis ... ***
>
> >
> >
> >We would love to jump at the opportunity and
> >carry on a small importing business!
> >
> >But what do you think about our concept?
>
> ***Fortsetzung ... Und lassen Sie mich wissen, wie es geht ...
> Ich muss Ihnen sagen, es klingt faszinierend ... I
> Haben eine listserv von rund 900 Menschen ... Ich würde gerne
> Weiter Ihres Schreibens zu ihnen ... Kein Zweifel, einige
> Sie würde kopieren, und dann ihre Ergebnisse und
> Ideen ... Lassen Sie mich wissen ...
Translation: Pursue this... and let me know how it goes...
> I have to tell you, it sounds intriguing... I
> have a listserv of some 900 people... I'd love to
> forward your letter to them... no doubt some
> would copy you, and then share results and
> ideas... let me know...***
>
> >
> >What kind of contract would you suppose us to
> >have us drawn up with designers? Do we need a
> >contract at all?
>
> ***
> USA Recht ... Ich habe keine Ahnung von deutschem Recht ... Aber
> Lesen Sie es und lassen Sie mich wissen, was Sie denken ...
Translation: Attached is a designer contract... it assumes
> read it and let me know what you think...***
>
> >
> >As we had suspected, some designers are
> >concerned about the protection of their
> >intellectual property. How do we handle that?
>
>
> ***
> Lizenz zu vertreiben ... Ich werde uns ein anderes
> Nach diesem Schreiben zum Thema ...*
Translation:
> licensed to distribute... I'll forward another
> letter after this on the topic...***
>
> >
> >Do you know of any other German importer in your
> >blog? It would be nice if you could give me his
> >email, so I can get in touch with him soon. It
> >could be helpful to talk to someone with
> >experience of importing to Germany.
> ***
Am I right
> >that we can transfer a lot (if not all) of your
> >ideas to the German market?
>
>
> ***
>
> >Thank you very much for your time and consideration.
> >
John
This Is Why I Am Staying Short
This is the kind of thing an Elliot Spitzer would jump on and tear apart, because it is not right.
In the meantime, I'll make money off of it, under protest.
Anyone With A Passion For Education?
A trade lead - new service opportunity...
It would be good for business if a Ron Paul were to undo all the of the damage done by unconstitutional and just plain foolish policy. His policies would undo the massive, integrated malinvestment and exploitation that has resulted in the problems we face today. USA people are busy at this unnatural superstructure of commerce and society, representing an incalculable opportunity cost.
Our imperial forces assure supplies lines of exploited raw materials flowing into our industries, our banks and financial institutions cut the deals worldwide which keep money flowing (so far), our educational structure keeps producing fodder for the system (not just the military), and medicine is the new salt, the element used to keep everyone locked down (and fear of losing medicine as a motivation).
If Ron Paul were elected, and began eliminating the department of education, the fed reserve, and pull the troops home, his top priorities, peace may break out around the world, and opportunity abound, but Americans would come to hate freedom all the more. If we leave off the Hamiltonian system, and embrace Jeffersonian, there simply is not the cultural capital available in USA of small biz who would step in and take up the slack providing goods and services in the vacuum when the present providers (in our distorted malformed economy) wither away. The helpless, disoriented masses, unable to help themselves, disintegrating like a loaf of white bread in a rainstorm, would clamor for war.
WE need a critical mass of people who can handle free markets, peace and prosperity. People who understand how to operate in such a milieu. There are some of us, but not enough to support everyone out there.
Job # 1 is to reintroduce entrepreneurialism in USA. A small slice. Say, deregulate medicine. Watch what happens. Let people see and learn. Our economy shot ahead when the unthinkable was done, and my hero Jimmy Carter deregulated telecommunications. eMail! The internet.
Bread was once to kill and die for. With free markets in restaurants, they give it to you free as soon as you sit down. With free markets in medicine, your prescriptions would be free. We would have more better cheaper faster. Cash would be king, not insurance. Catastrophic insurance would look new and different. It would be a pleasing picture.
Freedom may have had a chance with Clinton, because it was a plausible alternative then. The conservative, Christian right, as hijacked by Geo Bush and the neocons, in eight years has set back freedom 100 years. Ron Paul pulls about 4%, reflecting how many Americans love freedom. That 4% cannot carry the 96%, who have all the initiative of bears hanging out at the dumpsters in the Yosemite. It would take 2 generations for the USA to re-accumulate the cultural capital to support ourselves.
Now, we are going to have to face losing hamiltonianism in time anyway, the hamiltonian system is the one proven to never stand. The Soviet Union was essentially Hamiltonian. Hamiltonians pat themselves on the back for defeating the soviet union, when in fact they are merely the last man standing on the titanic. It is over except for the looting, now in progress, at a caucus near you.
How far will the collapsing system disintegrate, how much disorientation will take place, how fast will free-marketers step in to help others psychologically unable to help themselves, just how much will disappear thru the looting taking place at the top levels, how quickly will a criticial mass of people learn to be responsible, and will the center hold in the meantime? Who knows?
I think the answer is to start a school. With the school uniform sack cloth and ashes.
Now That It is Over, Let's Regulate.
The rules and regulations in place over the last decade precipitated the housing boom and bust and the mortgage mess. Now they want to write regulations ? The game is over. There is no more money to lend for shaky deals. So now they will 'do something," they will write rules to prevent people from doing what cannot be done anyway.
Unintended Consequences?
The Chaldean Rite Archbishop, kidnapped a month ago, was found murdered in Iraq today. He is archbishop of Abraham's homeland, of a church founded by the Apostle Thomas himself, and naturally in communion with Rome. Over the centuries the Chaldeans worked out a modus vivendi with the Moslem majority. As is often the case, this minority became rich as a trusted third party in business. This Church in the crossroads of humanity has survived for nearly 2000 years, faced countless invasions, conquerings, and oppressions. The Chaldeans may not survive the US invasion and occupation. Of course there is a large contingent of Chaldean Christians living in peace and prosperity in Iran. For now. Onward Christian Soldiers!
Carlyle Folds
Leveraged at 32:1?! 2:1 is getting out of hand. What sane financier would ever try it? It would be prima facie evidence of fraud, and it would just beg someone like Elliott Spitzer to investigate it. Carlyle Group has failed and now a slug of mortgage backed securities will hit the open market, at which point they will be priced at what they are worth. And if this "tranche" is priced to market, it will imply the true price of the nominally 4 trillion so far left unpriced. That could lead to blood in the streets.
This is dangerous since the powers that be are doing heavy lifting to keep the securities from seeing the light of day, get priced, and thus bring down the entire house of cards. The Fed's 200 billion facility announced day before yesterday, which caused the market to shoot up 400 points (all gone two days later) is an example of just how desperate they are trying.
What a strange thing. The Bush regime is arrayed to keep a lid on the mortgage mess, and then a Bush controlled business runs a lance at the balloon. Rather like selling oil to the Nazis. Inexplicable. In economic chaos, people clamor for war.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Cultural Capital
Yesterday the govt made the first installment on bailing out the banks. The government has executed a deal that passes on the mistakes of the banks onto you. The stock market shot up over 400 points, partially spurred by short sellers covering margin calls.
The regulators hate the short sellers, since short sellers prove we need no regulators. Short sellers put their own money on the line when they spot fraud. If they are right, the shortsellers make money. If they are wrong, the companies the short sellers erroneously target make money. This is how free markets work. No govt necessary.
Of course my stock portfolio went down about 2% on this action. The proof that this effort will not work is gold went up as the market went up. If and when good times return, gold will drop in value. I will remain shorting the markets because I believe the markets will continue to drift down.
But I object. Although I am making money in this market, indeed more than by working, the stock market is not the work I want to do. I have to protect my savings, and apparently I can (so far so good) but it would be a lot easier if I could just invest and forget. Most Americans do precisely this, which is why the government can rob them with zero fear of criticism.
But note what is happening, the time it takes to manage assets... is taken away from providing value in the marketplace... I can make money doing good by doing well, or make far more money while I protect my assets from theft. It is a distortion of the market, borne of malinvestment. It has a deleterious cumulative effect on the economy.
This will allow me to open a new idea I have not bothered with so far: borrowing money to start a business is a bad idea. More on this later.
But for now, check this out. Now that the government has destroyed the housing market, the government will reward government workers by allowing govt workers to buy the houses at 50% off... read the last line in the article.
When govt gets around to sickening its biggest champions, then the cultural capital, a belief in freedom, grows. Arch-communist David Mamet, a favorite playwrite of mine (perhaps playright is better in his case) is coming to his senses.
Spitzer And War
No Bush has ever started a war without first firing the US commanders. Look at papa bush and baby Bush, and before each war the commanding officers were relieved, and others brought in. Panama, Yugoslavia, Iraq etc. Officers are confirmed by the senate, and of course in 'war time' they want to give the president the officers he wants. Since our first string officers never agree to Bush wars, the Bushes are obliged to go to war with 3rd and 4th string hacks. (This made Rumsfeld's comment "you go to war with the army you have" rather cynical.)
Fallon is out as commander, Cheney is in the middle east, perhaps we'll have an attack on Iran before the election. If not, of course, Hillary will attack when she is president.
Spitzer being taken out makes me nervous. Why are the feds going after a state governor? New Yorkers could not figure out he was a dog? New York could not handle Spitzer, and prosecute him themselves if they like? So what if he frequents prostitutes, name a politician who does not cheat on his wife. Henry Hyde was the religious right's paragon of virtue, and he cheated on his wife as a politician. Of course Spitzer hid the money he was paying hookers. He broke no law doing so, it is against the law not to report more than $10,000. But I hear it is now also against the law to try to not break the law.
We learned last year that the US Attorney system is corrupt, and politically motivated. The democrats had the opportunity to restore the justice department to independence, but instead confirmed Mukasey as attorney general.
Why would the republicans want a powerful governor in a powerful state out of the way? It is simply because he might object to the fact that the feds have bailed out the banks at the expense of the middle class? Or might he have objected to USA attacking Iran?
The pimp in all of this is licensed to prepare taxes for others by the IRS, according to ABC. Who benefits by having Spitzer gone?
Moral Hazard
The federal swap meet mentioned here is the event where the banks were bailed out of 200 billion in bad loans. One does not need to even suspect a conspiracy. The simple fact the feds are taking bad debt as collateral for loans is simple proof the banks have been bailed out, at the expense of you.
Banks got involved in this foolish behavior because they knew, bottom line, they would be bailed out. It was a safe bet that countless americans could be persuaded to buy foolishly, and that when these speculations in real estate failed, the government would pass the loss off of the banks onto productive Americans. The first 200 million happened yesterday. It will not help. There is over one trillion to go.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
BioFools
Biofuels make no sense and cause starvation. So in Washington State the feds are paying "green entrepreneurs" a subsidy of a dollar a gallon to make it. Not to mention what the Washington taxpayers are forking over. This is of course another example of the government picking a loser when it comes to economic policy.
Tin Can Pension
I have zero evidence that our (collectively) pensions are being looted, but with todays move by the fed, bringing in foreign central banks to prop up the failing USA banking system, if the foreigners are NOT looting the USA pensions then I need to start a Swiss bank.
If someone was desperate for money because they have no idea how to handle money, and then asked you to lend them more, would you take their worst mistakes as collateral? Or would you take their best assets as collateral?
I think when we look back fondly at the good old days, we'll see it changed in these weeks we are living now.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Somehow I caused a lot of trouble at the Republican County Caucus for the 41st district in Washington state on Saturday, March 9, where delegates are elected to the state Republican convention. I caused one caucus to be declared illegal after 9 hours of caucusing, immediately after which another caucus was convened, which was legal (I guess). I was just trying to help!
I should mention a month or so ago, while I was out of town, there were the republican precinct caucuses. My wife somehow got me elected, while I was gone, as a delegate to the county convention. And since I have sent Ron Paul money, the RPR crew were on me like white on rice, and urged me to follow through, and attend the county caucus to push for Ron Paul candidates.
First a couple of definitions: a "slate" is a list of candidates some group of people wants to put forward for election. Roberts Rules of Order (RRO) are the rules under which the meeting is conducted. A district caucus convention is how people pick the delegates to the state convention, and from there on to the Republican National Convention, which is being held in I believe Nuremberg, Germany this year. As to the two factions at this convention Saturday, let's call them status quo republicans (SQR) Ron Paul Republicans (RPR).
Now this legislative district is important to republicans, because it is the only other republican district on the west coast of USA out side of Orange County California, and in the next census, a new district will be created next door to the 41st, and whomever controls this district is likely to "own" the new one when it is formed.
A few days before the caucus, Ron Paul announced he was winding down his campaign (not ending) and the RPR called a meeting to discuss strategy. My wife and I attended, at her insistence. Essentially the RPR put together a slate of 33 RPR’s who offered to represent the 41st district at the state convention in Spokane. Certainly the SQR already had their slate of 33 determined. A discussion ensued as to whether the RPR group would move forward openly or try to finesse their way in. It was decided finesse was best.
I left the meeting with uneasiness. I prefer to be very open about my views.
Come Saturday morning, I joined 300 other people at the republican district caucus. The caucus opened the pledge of allegiance and a prayer thanking God for George Bush and his “visions” (yes, visions, plural. It was all very weird.) The temporary leadership was elected as caucus leadership and a quick mention was made from the dais that everyone should vote for the SQR slate and ignore the RPR slate.
The chair asked how many people had never been to a convention before, and I’d guess 260 people raised their hands. It was remarked at how this proved the dynamism of the republican party.
Nominations were made to add people to the list of about 100 candidates for delegates to the state convention. The chairwoman was spelling-and-hearing-challenged. so I found myself helping out by standing regularly to shout out proper pronunciations and spellings of the names of the people nominated. This becomes important in a minute.
After all of the nominees were on the ballot, the chairman called for a vote. This was strange, nobody knew any of the candidates, almost everyone was new to the system, and this the SQR slate would naturally win all of the seats.
A young woman stood up to make a speech recommending people vote for her, and she was ruled out of order.
Now, I was looking to break with the RPR’s plan to be discrete, I wanted to get up, ask people to vote for me so since I am antiwar, small government (very, very small) sound currency, pro-life, etc.
My thought was since the republican party stands for perpetual war, massive government, debased currency and anti-life, I wanted to be voted out so I could go home and drink.
I stood and called the chairwoman on a point of order, asking when we could propose speeches before the vote. She said “no.” Just “no!” So I switched to point of interruption, to press my point as is proper in roberts rules of order, and got shouted down “no” from the dais. No? Well I kept at it, until a sargeant-at-arms signalled me to stop (palm down, four fingers across the throat, back and forth) and I figured if they sic the sargeants-at-arms on me, it’s over anyway.
The first of four secret votes in the day took place, each taking about an hour and half to count. And with no speeches, the first seventeen of 33 people with enough votes to be elected to go to Spokane were all from the SQR slate.
In the meantime a young fellow in a suit came up and tapped me on the shoulder and asked me to step to the back of the conference hall. I assumed I was going to be asked to leave, something for which I was eager.
He pointed out by shouting me down the chairwomen had violated the Roberts rules of order, and the convention at this point was illegal. Yes, of course. He turned out to be a RPR operative, and we discussed responses.
The second vote was taken. Again mostly SQR were elected, but a funny thing happened... I got elected as a delegate to the state convention too, with the SQR slate! What?! No?! How can this be? Nobody knows me. I suspect my helping out with spelling earlier, and my attempt to allow speeches gained me unintended support.
About half the crowd left after that, I suspect rather disillusioned with the rigged process.
In the interim times, elected officials came to make speeches, assuring us they were for goods things and against bad things.
As the hours droned on, the final result was 28 SQR were elected as delegates to Spokane, and a total of 5 RPR, one being me. At this point there were about 25 RPR facing down about 25 SQR, since everyone else had gotten bored and left.
The chairwoman thanked everyone for their hard work and was about to adjourn the meeting, when I jumped up and made a point of order, noted that the convention was illegal due to failure to follow the Roberts Rules of Order, and that there would be a legal convention in the North Parking lot in five minutes, to which everyone was invited. Silence. Adjournment. Hard looks Convention in the parking lot. RPR slate of 33 delegates legally elected to state convention. We all went home.
This will cause a credentials fight that the state party will have to deal with. (I am a delegate either way!)
Funny thing... driving home I felt bad for the SQR... they want no one else in their party. They truly believe in George Bush and his visions. They took the time and effort to rig the system so no one else can get in. Fair enough. All I was trying to do was to get voted down and out so I could leave. And then they cheated me directly, by not following even their own rules. Arrrgghh... I am obliged to object to that. So I did, and what a mess. Now I have to go to Spokane, where serious party hacks will see to it I am eliminated quickly and fairly from their rigged system, they way it should be. They have nice microbreweries in Spokane.
I lamented to my wife about this sorry turn of events, and I remonstrated with her for getting me involved. Why, I asked? She said got me elected to find me someone else besides herself to discuss politics. I bore her with my political views. I was hurt.
Test That Water
Long ago my doctor ordered no swimming pools for me and mine. How come? Because the water is recycled, not changed. It is filtered and re-chlorinated, but not changed. So what?
Synthetic hormones do not break down very fast. As women on the Pill whiz in swimming pools, the concentrations of estrogen and other female hormones get quite high. The filters cannot filter out the hormones. The danger to girls, boys, men and women is there, how high just depends on how many women on the pill, how long the water has been there, etc. Although they can test for estrogens, etc, no scientific study of water quality has been funded that will test for estrogens. (In spite of the fact the two-headed frogs, etc, are likely the result of just this pollutant).
This is the first time I have ever seen the birth control pollutant mentioned. An excellent new product would be to make a female hormone test kit for pools. then we can know.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Monday Should Be Interesting
JP Morgan is running out of money... expect the government to bail them out, with your resources.