ADP tracks employment in USA and is of course more reliable than the government job tracking, and they are reporting on small business layoffs. Here is their current report.
Summary for November, with small business defined as fewer than 50 employees.
Total small business employment: -79,000
Goods-producing sector: -47,000 small business jobs
Service-providing sector: -32,000 small business jobs
Now this does not necessarily mean a business is folding, it just means that business is slowing down. And with the layoffs comes lower wages, which is a very good thing. As costs of gas and travel and 42 inch plasma tvs and wages and everything else goes down, USA becomes more competitive
Lobster fishermen are afraid of lower prices. But why? If Lobster prices drop, gas prices from, HELOC payments drop, gas drops, trips to Aruba drop, if all prices drop, who cares? If everything you would spend money on is cheaper too, so what? Where is the problem?
The only problem is if you are so loaded up on debt, and prices drop, so then paying back that debt becomes impossible, then you have a problem. This is who is in trouble today. Those small businesses shedding employees who have no debt, or debts they can handle even in a slowdown, will survive. Those who cannot handle the debt will fall. In whatever field you love, if you start your business now, you will be debt free competing against some who are breaking under the debt they took on. When these competitors do break, you will get a chance to take their customers, if you compete on design.
Folding businesses leave unused production capacity upstream, which is to say, suppliers overseas. If you show up in those factories and say, "I have no debt, but I have thriving USA customers who say "good idea and does not exist" to my designs, ... then you will be on your way.
Ocean freight is cheap again (always was, but back down to nothing), travel is cheap, and there are enough people who know what they are doing and you can associate with for you to launch a successful company. Never mind about credit or finance... the suppliers minimums will be so low you can finance it yourself. (Come on, you can say "would you like fries with that?" for six months on your way making your dreams come true...?) I am dead serious, there is no reason you cannot deliver pizzas for six months while you do the time-consuming prep work on the way to a thriving business... work part time as you do the essentials. I promise you, there is nothing that quite focusses the mind and motivates action as putting on a hairnet at six AM five days a week.
But the cost of management in USA must come down. Problem is the govts are bailing out high cost management. And they must. The politicians are trapped. If they do not bail out their system, it will fail. if their system fails, then who needs them..?
(Always remember they are bailing out A system, not THE system. THE system, upon which all other systems are necessarily based, is called a free market.) Big govt and big biz are one and the same. The side we don't like is the political side and their wicked, if entertaining, players. The side we like is big biz and the cool cars and big TVs and raunchy movies and ersatz education and medical care they give us. If the part where we get cool things fails, then who needs the govt? Politicians know this. So in reality the politicians are bailing themselves out with our money... they are not bailing out us, the consumer, or for that matter big biz really. The politicians are bailing themselves out.
And just in case this gets out of hand, the politicians are moving combat troops into the United States to be on standby in case there is trouble. (Think Soviet Union, August 1991)
Congressman Dodd is in a huff because the the first 350 billion of bailout money did not go where it was promised (surprise!). Never mind that we were told their system would fail if this emergency money did not get handed over immediately... that was then this is now. Where it went was into the pockets of wall street and politicians and who knows where else. the actual distribution is secret, there can be no challenges in court, so what did Dodd expect?
I expect things to work out as well for we in the USA as they did for the people in Russia. Time to start a business now!
Friday, December 5, 2008
Small Businesses Folding?
Gas Prices
When George Bush entered office a gallon of regular gas was $1.46. As he leave office a gallon of regular is about $1.46. George Bush is on the record as saying he wanted, America needed, high gas prices. We got them. We concentrate too much power in too few hands.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Garment Renaissance
According to this article, USA is dropping quotas on Chinese garments Jan1 2009, and if true, this is wonderful news. Seattle lost a thriving garment importing trades with dozens of companies paying high wages, and it ended ll one day when the US govt slapped quotas on chinese garments.
Not only were USA consumers denied the opportunity to use their money as they saw fit, with fewer and higher priced garments coming into usa after the quotas went in place, the work programs at Salvation Army and Goodwill took a hit, since the flow of garments to them took a hit. And if you recall the fashions of the last two decades, basic black and heroin chic, and everyone else looking as though they just woke up from a three day drunk. I gave a lecture at a leading law firm a month ago, and of the 18 lawyers present I was the only one in a suit.
I doubt there will be much change because the anti-free trade people will have the upper hand with dems in power, as they did when republicans were in power. Sigh. Here is an example.
Here a USA industry group attacks China for things it is not doing, but something USA does regularly.
China To Join Pirate Fight?
Let's see: Nato, Russia, India and now perhaps China will crowd into the middle east to fight pirates. So many computer controlled weapons systems, so many hackers, in so tight a space. And Israel announcing they may "go it alone" in attacking Iran. Madness!
The pirates of course are private initiatives. As long as history has been recorded, pirates have been effectively dealt with by private initiative. The means is the letter of marque, where govts give authority to groups to take on a problem such as pirates. Sometimes a bounty is put on pirates, sometimes the pay is to keep what the privateers seize from the pirates. In any case, any pirates captured are hanged.
There is even a better way, which is withdraw the forces fomenting chaos in the middle east, but that is unlikely. I only point out it is strange for so many nations to show up in a tight space for an otherwise manageable problem.
Indirect Election Fraud
Politicians are using our money to bail out people who bail out the politicians. What a racket.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Patterns, Not Trends
It has dawned on me that people are always looking for trends, rising waves they may be able to catch on the way up or before the wave breaks and earn wonderful profits. Well, business ain't surfing. When I read articles, such as this one on high-end whiskeys, or whiskys if you are Scottish... I am not interested in whether it is a trend or not, but what pattern is playing out. if you do not love booze, then who cares if there is a trend or not. Whether you love booze or not, the pattern playing out is useful information.
If you do love booze, whether or not a trend is underway does not matter, since your business is real and will perform trend or not.
Studying trends for market information is a waste of time.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Competing on Aesthetics
John,
I'm thinking of importing polo shirts with collars that are permanently turned up (with a plastic support in the collar) and fluorescent colors used tastefully. They would be top class quality materials and tailoring.
Click on for the full discussion.
How would I research this with the stores? In the class you gave the example of a 'better ski sweater', which I assume has some utilitarian value, rather than simply the aesthetic value of the polo shirts. I see how you follow the process for a product with utilitarian value, but with something like shirts or glassware I think it would be impossible to describe how your product solves a problem or provides a benefit, no? [Actually for glassware if you have a new way of putting designs on glass, or a process, or whatever like you mentioned in the vids it's simliar to the utility idea]. But how does the process translate for a product with aesthetic value, or a line of products with a particular feel (such as a new clothing line with a 'medievil' theme?)
Firstly I've gone in and asked for it, spoken to the owners/buyers and the collars don't exist, and the fluorescent designs are different from what I'm thinking of. I haven't alluded to the idea of making it myself.
-Should I move from simply customer to possible supplier and bring in designs on paper next? Should I bring in a mock up of the collar I've stitched together and say "I believe if I imported this you would buy it, would I be correct"?
-Or should I remain only as a customer (not possible supplier) and say nothing of having produced a mock up/designs or thoughts of having it produced and keep describing what I want until someone says somehting like 'good idea, doesn't exist'?
Thanks very much!
Duncan.
John Spiers wrote:
Yes.
In your note the first half you veer off course, and the second half you get back on course. You're getting closer!
You are not more selling anything than you are making anything, so it would be absurd to allude to making it yourself. I realize this was a figure of speech, but it betrays an error in thinking on your part. Back to the re-education camps for you! So stay away from those two aspects.
When you say "clothes with a medieval theme" you are selling features (which any salesman will tell you is an error)... when you say "thick black wool shirts made from horsehair with high collars that keep out the wind and remind you of your sins" (instead of "medieval') you are describing benefits you seek... stay within the narrow range...
As far as aestethics it will be up to a designer, since that part is art, and the designer will work with the store feedback to your idea.
Stay as a customer until you hear "good idea, does not exist." then go get a real live sample. (the "I believe if I import this you will buy it is a distant plan B, only used to test what I believe is always a mistaken idea.)
make sense?
John
Dear john,
OK now I'm clear on when to reveal my intentions and when not to - only after you hear the words 'good idea, doesn't exist' or similar.
Regarding what value I'm providing- How can you stay within the narrow range and describe benefits you seek when you're testing the reaction to a new design of polo shirt, or new glassware, for example? They don't really have benefits, they just look different, don't they?
Permanently folded up collars
Fluorescents
on high quality shirts
with a 'travel/explorer/jetset' feel to the line
It seems these things are expressed through the design. And there's no windbreaker collar (benefit) or anything like that. Am I innovating in any way then, or simply becoming a designer? How is this different to creating glassware, or picture frames with shells? Basically... what is the benefit that I can test the reaction to in order to get the response 'good idea, doesn't exist?'
They don't really have benefits, they just look different, don't they?
Duncan
Dear Duncan,
OK... now pause and reflect... mere superficial differences, of no consequence...? then why in life do people kill and destroy and build and change so much over so little? What if what you are minimizing is actually almost entirely the point? I may be exaggerating to make my point, but why do we like food and gardens and decorations that merely look different. there is no accoounting for taste, look at who we fall in love with, when in fact it is usually a matter of "looks." The benefits have to be intrinsic, but the "looks" are critical, which is why we hire designers.
John
Dear John,
I've asked the owners/buyers if they could check with their suppliers whether these exist (leverage the distribution chain) but they say we carry x, y z brands and they don't have it, or z brand does something similar (and then I explain how my idea is different). I'm thinking that I might need to show my hand - that I could supply them with these shirts - to motivate them to work with me and check with their suppliers.
I wouldn't say aesthetics aren't important......... But what do we say when we approach the stores when the value is mostly in the aesthetics? This is the designer's job to provide the aesthetics. But we approach the retailers before we approach the designers. How do we test with the retailers without designs first then?
Also, something you say puzzles me. The aesthetics are provided by the designer, as you say. In a product where the value is mostly in the aesthetics, where do we provide the value then? More attractive polo shirts, or shell encrusted picture frames for example don't really solve a problem people have... but for sure they enhance people's lives through their aesthetic qualities.... Those aesthetics are the designer's realm... so what are we doing? Is it the high level idea where we provide the value?... i.e. put shells in picture frames... or use fluorescents on polos... is that our value? I'm guessing so... BUT! because the value is still in the execution of that idea, the aesthetics, sometimes I think you can't test without going along with designs/mock up/proto-type. Sometimes it's not possible to 'get' the idea without something tangible, when it's aesthetic value, rather than solving a problem. Do you agree?
Thanks! I feel if I can figure out a way to test ideas that are based on aesthetics I can make quicker progress.
Duncan
Hi John,
Basically I'm eagerly awaiting your answer because it's a quesiton which I've only just been able to articulate after months as I was constantly bugged by a whole class of products (basically anything that's simply nice to look at) that I couldn't fit into the model in my mind. Maybe a lack of clarity is putting you off answering, so I have distilled it down to two questions-
- How does a retailer respond "good idea, doesn't exist" to a product whose value is in the aesthetics (thinking ornaments, furniture with no special features, clothing, crockery) where there is no new utility benefit- the only difference is in the design?
- For such a product, how do you get that reaction before getting designs (e.g. what did you say to the retailer to get that reaction to your idea of a glass candle, as in the book?)
Basically I've convinced the buyers over the phone that my polo shirts are different... but in polo shirts it's difficult to solve a 'problem' as such, so really I'm providing aesthetic value, or good designs... it's not like I'm shopping for a vented polo shirt that keeps you cool... They say they want to see designs "The brand would have to be fully presented to the buyers. To arrange a meeting, we must first see some pictures or a look book of the product to get an idea of where the line would sit."
Hopefully it's just a case of paralysis by analysis with these questions........ By using common sense, and given the fact that every business is different, I would say I'd have to present designs first before I get to milestone #2. And isn't fashion different anyway... Ralph Lauren did basically start doing the functions of a designer, although his main value was the overarching concept, and as you say he doesn't do the design work today. Perhaps I should stop trying to stick too rigidly to the plan.
Highly value your input,
Thanks, Duncan.
On Dec 2, 2008, at 3:55 AM, Duncan wrote:
so I have distilled it down to two questions-
- How does a retailer respond "good idea, doesn't exist" to a product whose value is in the aesthetics (thinking ornaments, furniture with no special features, clothing, crockery) where there is no new utility benefit- the only difference is in the design?
John Answer: I thought I answered this... but let me try again...I drive by casinos and am mystified as to why the parking lots are full. I have no idea what value any one places in gambling. It does not matter if YOU can perceive the value... it is the customer who matters. Why do you have to understand?***
Duncan question: For such a product, how do you get that reaction before getting designs (e.g. what did you say to the retailer to get that reaction to your idea of a glass candle, as in the book?)
John Answer: Glass candle was easier since the retailers asked for it... it was a follow on to a product that I had developed, glassware, which retailers said was a good idea and does not exist...***
Duncan question: Basically I've convinced the buyers over the phone that my polo shirts are different... but in polo shirts it's difficult to solve a 'problem' as such, so really I'm providing aesthetic value, or good designs... it's not like I'm shopping for a vented polo shirt that keeps you cool... They say they want to see designs "The brand would have to be fully presented to the buyers. To arrange a meeting, we must first see some pictures or a look book of the product to get an idea of where the line would sit."
John Answer: I think you are making too much of this... the retailers either say it is a good idea and does not exist or they don't... if they don't, you are free to put a shirt in front of them and see what they say. If they lke it, proceed... if not, you can redesign based on their feedback, and see if that works...***
Duncan question: Hopefully it's just a case of paralysis by analysis with these questions....
John Answer: I don't think you care enough about polo shirts to move ahead...***
Duncan question: . By using common sense, and given the fact that every business is different, I would say I'd have to present designs first before I get to milestone #2. And isn't fashion different anyway... Ralph Lauren did basically start doing the functions of a designer, although his main value was the overarching concept, and as you say he doesn't do the design work today. Perhaps I should stop trying to stick too rigidly to the plan.
John Answer: Or try the plan... find something you really care about... back to those videos... any doubt all three are not already out of biz? Fashion is no different in this... jewelry, wine... it is all bout solving problems...***
John
I Get A Consulting Proposal
Since I occasionally have exchanges such as this, I figured I will post it so people can get access to my thinking on these two topics... click to read on...
Hello John,
A friend of mine recently turned me onto your method (the small business import/export method) of manufacturing and product development. I have to admit that at first I was a bit skeptical, every source I've ever come across, with only slight variations, tells entrepreneurs that the only way to get a product to market is to:
1) Come up with a good product idea and prototype it
2) write the business plan
3) form a company
4) pitch it to investors
5) and when that inevitably fails to work, mortgage the house and take on lots of risk until you can demonstrate revenue.
But after listening to my friend go on about your methodologies and then finally watching the video clips you made available on YouTube (all 37 of them), I have to admit that I see the wisdom in using the approach you've spelled out. In fact I'm kicking myself a little for spending (seemingly wasting) the last year doing the above steps, 1 through 4, and the only thing that's really been developed in that time is my ability to write a business plan and give a power point presentation.
So I'm a convert, all hail the chief- but I'm not even sure if the project I'm doing is feasible with your method. My friend tells me that you consult, which I can't afford because I'm an entrepreneur that's been doing the wrong thing for a year, but I'd like to get your thoughts on some things. Do you think that there's a way that we could meet informally? Perhaps I could treat you to a beer or three- maybe you're a wine or sake lover like myself? I'll work with you if there's a way to make this happen.
Cheers,
Sean,
Thank you for your kind note... I am somewhat overwhelmed between now an new years... there is also a book out there HOW SMALL BUSINESS TRADES WORLDWIDE which you can read for free on googlebooks, and I have a class coming up ...www.johnspiers.com.
You can always email me questions, but first tell me, name a few of the companies you expect to be your customers...
John
On Nov 6, 2008, at 3:44 PM, Sean wrote:
John,
You're welcome- and thank you for your response. It's funny that you should mention giving your book away on Google books - you also mentioned doing that in your YouTube video clips - because as it turns out I did the same about an hour ago with a children's book that I wrote... it hasn't appeared online yet but I understand it typically takes a few hours.
I appreciate the offer to join your class this Saturday, I would but sadly even $135 is out of my range at the moment. It's a long and somewhat interesting story, but suffice it to say that my fiance and I are actually both employed but for different reasons not bringing in paychecks. So I'll have to pass this time around, though my friend who took your class at the UW raved about it. So there you go.
To answer your initial question let me start by saying that there are two distinct types of customers. The companies that would purchase my product for resale and the companies that would use my product for use. In terms of resale the target consumer is high-end baby boutiques - however I've been told that Costco is actively moving into the higher-end goods so they might be a target customer too.
In terms of companies that would potentially purchase my product for use (a market I have not explored very much) I see Starbuck's, Tully's, and anywhere that has an image=value model and odor is an issue is a potential candidate. Though perhaps less so now that the economy has turned down? But frankly I'm unfamiliar with their buying cycles and acquisition criteria to say with any certainty.
I am certain of the former - resale market - however.
-Sean
Sean,
Notice how far away from the question the answer is...? So I'll press the point... name a few resale market stores you'd expect to buy from you.
John
On Nov 6, 2008, at 9:46 PM, Sean wrote:
I see. Well specifically in this area:
(Editor’s Note: Ten stores are named, complete with email addresses, names deleted to keep this nonspecific).
Sean,
Very good... now, within the next week... try to buy your idea from each of these stores.... maybe visit several times at different times to talk to different people... ask as a customer of the store... think of materials extraction, to processor to manufacturing to importer to sales reps to retailer... and grab this whole knowledge base by the retailer, as a customer, and find out what the entire system's intelligence is on your idea... do not go in as if you are in business... go in as a consumer of the item, and see what you can learn for free by grabbing the entire system by the retailers and shaking all the info you can, free of charge, in advance of doing anything at all regarding your products. AS the carpenters say, “measure twice, cut once.”
John
On Nov 7, 2008, at 2:52 PM, Sean wrote:
I've done this to some degree already, but as a business - talking to the owners and asking if they would sell my product idea, why they don't sell competitors products, what's their required markup, what's their buying cycle, etc. - but I think I could do more in-depth inquisition as a customer. Very interesting.
Sean
Dear Sean,
Right... plan B is to say to retailers "I believe if I produce (name your item), you will buy them form me. Am I right?" So this you have done.
But it cuts off too much creative interaction and frank conversation, which you can incorporate into a product. Plan A will get you that interaction. And as a customer you might get to the point where a responsible party, seeking what you wish to buy from the entire network behind the retailer, is forced to tell you "it is a good idea and does not exist..." at which point you have a virtual invitation to start a business. This, of course, is the Plan A approach. Too late?
John
On Nov 7, 2008, at 6:43 PM, Sean wrote:
It's definitely not too late for the Plan A approach. I only spoke with the first three stores on that list and that was about ten months ago, so I doubt anyone would remember me if I was to re-approach them as a customer.
Thanks John!
-Sean
Sean,
Start with plan A now, and in about nine months you should be able to get samples from the supplier and enough orders form customers to cover the suppliers minimum production run in a workable amount of time, profitably... and then you are on you way...
John
John,
Wow, that week just disappeared into thin air... So you were saying- start with plan A. I'm wondering about the in-between steps and some other general entrepreneurial things that you might have some insight on.
What have been your experiences with partners? I started this project about a year and a half ago with two partners, partner one and partner two. Partner one was supplying most of the initial capital to rent a little shop and do the prototypes... but unbeknown to me he was dealing with some alcohol addiction issues and a highly unstable relationship, which caused him to become highly unreliable- not showing up to work, for meetings, showing up intoxicated, becoming irrational and wrecking things... Over the course of about 6 months it became evident this situation wasn't going to improve, and I was getting burnt out from always being the one carrying the torch. But the final nail in the coffin came when I showed up at the shop to finish work on a very nice prototype that I was going to use as a demonstration piece at an important meeting, and partner one had gotten drunk over the weekend and thrown all of the prototypes over the side of a ledge into some blackberry bushes and - the icing on the cake - changed the combination on the equipment locker... and forgot the combination. Perhaps needless to say partner two and I decided partner one's time was at an end with the project.
Partner two ended up exiting the company about 9 months later under much better circumstances. He and I decided that he just didn't have the time or will to be an entrepreneur, and he was adding any value to the company with his presence.
Then the design firm I had been working with for about a year to put together a deal for the past 4 months - flakes out and the deal falls through. There's a good story there too, but I don't think I have the energy to tap it out in an email.
But my experiences haven't been all bad with partners... I think it's just that some people have a very romantic view of what starting a business is actually going to be, and when the reality doesn't sync up with their vision many - if not most - people get disillusioned.
Anyway, enough rambling. I'd like to hear about your point of view.
Cheers,
Sean
Hey Sean,
To answer your question, I go back to customers... when you start with customers, you will know whether or not you need partners, and if so, what partners. It is clear to me from your stories that you and others "partnered" around a neat idea. Organize around customers and you'll be tripping over potential partners who've spotted what you have. It is likely you have complimentary skills, and can work together.
Such is the story of Jobs and Wozniak at Apple, but there is a little told story about the third founder at Apple. The fellow got nervous that Wozniak, employed at Hewlett Packard while working on the Apple computer, would bring down the wrath of HP upon all three if HP found out. The third fellow sold out for $800. As if HP could care at all.
Point is, there will always be big miscalculations and stories to tell the grandkids.
There are no in-between steps, there is the first step... customers, and subsequent steps based on customers. Customers are the most important, and the product or service will be the hardest part of the biz. Start with the customers, then worry about everything else.
John
On Nov 18, 2008, at 1:47 PM, Sean wrote:
I can certainly see the wisdom in the customer centric approach on an abstract level it makes total sense, but break it down for me. Give me an example of a time you've put this into practice and it's both worked and another when it's failed.
***Your earlier examples of visiting the few stores, what I called plan B was along those concrete lines... in your case plan A would be to start by trying to BUY your idea from the retailers you'd expect to be your customers (you named them earlier...)
Working backwards... handknotted carpets with no dye and North Coast Indian designs... Bingo... another might be my book, that took 16 years to write because i kept putting the info in front of my customers (students) the examples are countless and boring because the process is not interesting to observers, it is only interesting as a participant
I think Forbes magazine does a god job of laying out examples of biz done right and wrong if you want case studies...
And in terms of personal experience, there was a time before I found the guiding light, where I made every mistake possible... Chinese medicine, satin gung fu shoes, dolls, arrrgghh...
John
On Nov 23, 2008, at 8:24 PM, Sean wrote:
If you would agree to mentor me through the whole process from beginning to end with my product, I'll give you 50% of whatever profits are realized from the first iteration of the process. What I'd ask in return is that you actually do the whole process with me there so I can learn from literally watching you work.
I'd like to assure you that this is a serious and legitimate offer I'm proposing. In fact, to assure you that I'm not just a random yahoo with delusions of grandeur (at least that's only partially true) I'd be happy to take you to lunch downtown and meet my attorney,. I've heard you're not terribly fond of attorneys, correct? Well I think he might change your mind about attorneys- he did mine!
I'm happy to converse over email, on the phone, or meet in person - probably all of the above in due time - to address any questions you have. I'd also be happy to give you whatever references I can muster, which you could check out in whatever fashion suites you best. And in exchange I'd hope that you'd be willing to provide a quid pro quo set of references that I could check out... except I already have a pretty good idea that you're legitimate, but due diligence is never a bad thing.
Sean
Dear Sean,
Your offer is very flattering... but first regarding attorneys, I don't know where your apprehension of my view of attorneys would come from,... a month ago I was recruited to give a presentation to a dozen attys at a top firm in Seattle, and they earned CLU credits for it... I don't believe lawyers have a role to play at the small biz level, and if I have any objection at all it is to biz people who convert biz problems to legal problems that are the trouble... lawyers don't troll small biz for work... it is biz people running to lawyers who cause the problems... lawyers just get blamed for doing their job...
But back to your offer... I have a practical problem: I've estimated I need to live 900 years to work through the projects I am interested in. I had a $10,000 review fee for consulting, but the problem was people paid it, and I got stuck working on other projects. So now I have jacked my fee up to $25,000. So far so good.
Aside form the fact you need no mentoring, you would necessarily be unhappy with the deal you offer. Since any success would necessarily be 99.9% yours, you would in time be very unhappy when you found yourself contractually obligated to give me 50% of the profits. I never take deals where I know the other side is getting a raw deal.
Your offer underestimates what you bring to the table, and how the business reflects you. The business is you. You offer overestimates my worth. At best I save you time and money, any success is yours.
You recently decided the powerpoint presentation/venture capital route is a nonstarter. The heart of that is the lure that you can live off other peoples money for while as a biz gets jump-started, possibly. Offering me participation in profits for assistance is still along those lines. Things will start happening for you when you ignore resources (like me) and focus solely on the opportunity, the customers.
Your offer is a bold move. So you got a hard answer. I hope it helps.
And buy the way, what help you were willing to pay for you've been getting for free.
John
On Nov 25, 2008, at 1:16 PM, Sean wrote:
John,
I can understand how you might not be interested in yet another project. I haven't even completed a single deal and I'm having to turn down other projects too. So I can only imagine how someone with your experience and exposure is fairing in that department... super-busy I imagine!
And I do appreciate your consideration of my profit margins in this venture. That said, perhaps you didn't catch it before, but I'm only offering 50% of the realized profit on the first run. I would say that for what I'm asking from you in terms of on the job training the value you would provide me is well worth a 50% cut- at most $50k?
But your first point still stands, you don't have time for yet another project and clearly money isn't a big motivating factor for you. So how about this?... Since what I'm most interested in on the job training perhaps we could come to an arrangement that involves one of your current or upcoming projects?
-Sean
Sean,
$50K is 50% of 100K, which is the net realized profit of the first run? At 10% net, that first run would have to be in the million dollar range. If that is your thinking, then back to the drawing board. A first run should be more like $5k or 10,000, and subsequent transactions for modified items. You are thinking of big biz as a model, which won't work. What will work, "just get started," needs no more instruction from me. It would be a waste of both of our time for you to apprentice with me. It is the customer you need to "apprentice" with, not me.
You can do this if you approach it as a small project that will grow where it needs to...
John
Torture
This senior Air Force interrogator is back from Iraq and claims one-half of US Military deaths can be attributed to the United States policy to torture. Interesting article. If true, does this mean that 300,000 of the 600,000 deaths of civilians in Iraq is due to USA policy to torture? Will Obama outlaw torture?
Universal Health Care
LA Times reports there is widespread consensus on a govt program Universal Health Care. The story names names. Quite a list. Not a single taxpayer or consumer is in on the discussion.
The problem with a government plan is
1. The government defines what is healthcare.
2. Govt always costs too much to do too much.
3. Govt control politicizes health care.
4. Innovation ceases,
5. Lowering cost and widening access ceases.
Of course, we do not have a health care crisis, we have a failed socialist policy crisis.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Jobs Does it Again
Not bad for the love child of a college gal and a Syrian professor, raised by working class parents... but here is a http://www.wired.com/gadgets/wireless/magazine/16-02/ff_iphone and the iPhone, and yet again, Jobs gets the design all wrong before he gets it all right...
Sunday, November 30, 2008
WAMU To Can 19,000 Monday
Ouch! Get big or get out, as the government says, and as WAMU is liquidated it is tantamount to eliminating dozens of banks. Washington Mutual grew by acquiring 30 other banks such as Dime Savings in New York and Ahmanson in California. When WAMU is gone, so are all of those other banks.