Folks,
Someone emailed me and asked why I did not just get a Visa from the Chinese
consulate in
USA. I thought I sent the through to the list so i could reply, but apprently
it did not make it.
Anyway, to wit, since I was leaviing in less then a week from the date I got my
ticket, I did not
want to send my passport through the couriers to San Francisco, with all that
time and risk.
Face to face in Hong Kong the better bet, I thought. It worked out.
I think there was another question in the email in question, but I don't recall
it, but feel free
to ask.
John
Saturday, May 6, 2006
Reply - How I got into China
Friday, May 5, 2006
Silver
Folks,
As part of a diversified portfolio, I own silver stocks, one Apex Corp, stock
symbol SIL. Can't
go wrong. Except...
Apex's main mines are in Bolivia, and the government has begun nationalizing
the energy
sector. Nationalization just means the government takes over ownership, and
does what it
wants.
If the govt taking over energy is a good thing, why not the mines too? So they
announced
they will last Tuesday, and the stock dropped from 22 to 14 that day. It has
since gone back
to 17.50 or so, and I got in at $16.60 last fall, so I can get my money out.
The Bolivian govt has announced it won't nationalize the mines, but it does
need to raise
taxes on the mines. Is there a difference?
Last January the Bolivian President travelled to China to meet with the Chinese
President Hu,
and get agreement on developing Bolivian infrastructure. Bolivia is rich in
natural resources.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4593202.stm
I don't think Bolivia would take this action without the support of China.
Now, the whole world knows that the dollar will get hammered (is getting
hammered). Many
govt's own US Securities as investments, and no one dares unload them for fear
of a "run on
the bank." Perhaps, here, on the margin, in li'l o' Bolivia we are seeing the
testing of a plan:
Nationalize USA investments in your country (the USA commonly seizes the assets
of
countries with which it gets in disputes as well), to balance out the loss in
T-Bill investments.
Foreign stocks are hot in the USA markets right now, giving this kind of action
leverage in
that measure.
Intelligence is often just a matter of spotting patterns. It will be
interesting to see if other
countries follow suit.
John
Liability Insurance?
Re: Liability Insurance?
Richard,
Sorry about the delay in replying... the importer has the liability, meaning
you. The
legal fiction is the importer is the manufacturer, since the courts cannot get
the
maker overseas...
Couple of options... do nothing, since you probably aren't worth suing and it
is
unlikely anyone is going to get hurt using your skin care creams... or simply
shop
around for product liability insurance, and see if it is doable...
John
--- In spiers@yahoogroups.com, Richard Ingels
>
> My wife and I want to develop a line of skin creams and have them
> formulated in the best possible place in high end markets. However, I
> was wondering about liability insurance. If someone else mixes the
> creams and I simply put my name on them, who is liable in a court if
> someone should sue? The formulator, or the brander? We have done some
> market research according to what I learned in your course and think
> that we may have a niche.
>
> thanks,
> Richard Ingels
Hong Kong: Do You Feel Safe?
Re: [spiers] Hong Kong: Do You Feel Safe?
On Thu, 4 May 2006 13:31:45 -0700 (PDT), M A Granich
:
> It wasn't problem solving that got Marc Rich into
> trouble, it was paying his taxes. He should have paid
> his taxes like everyone else. How did he solve the
> oil crisis?
Who knows what good lawyers might have done for him... Well we
do know, the good lawyer Bill Clinton got him pardoned.
But back to the oil crisis, Pres Carter announced that oil "below ground" and
oil "above ground"
would be priced differently... something about one being market price, more or
less, and the other
being fixed price. I am fuzzy on the details and forget the logic behind it,
but anyway, Marc Rich
got busy calling one the other (oil is fungible) working with those wascally
iwanians and others.
Bottom line, the oil price broke, oil began to flow, problem solved, and I am
sure Rich considered
money made overseas to be declared overseas. He certainly declared all his
earnings to Swiss
bankers.
The US authoriies were ticked at having their regulations ignored, in spite of
the result. Juries
view tax evasion as far more wicked than solving the oil crisis, so that may
also have contributed
to the specific charges.
John
Thursday, May 4, 2006
Hong Kong: Do You Feel Safe?
Re: [spiers] Hong Kong: Do You Feel Safe?
> In USA our govt is working on a law that would make
> it a crime for the free market to work in
> gasoline prices. Instead of those with the greatest
> need paying the greatest price and
> clearing bottlenecks and shortages, the govt is
> looking at making problem-solving a crime
The same applies to the Internet. The Government will
soon give control of the Internet to Comcast, or
Verizon, or SBC, and other large corporations.
Instead of everyone getting the same service as far as
where you can go on the net, ie "Net Neutrality",
there will be levels of service. E-mail will cost,
etc...
> (Marc Rich single handedly solved the USA oil crisis
> in the 1970's, and the govt called it a
> felony. He escaped to Switzerland with his
> billions, where solving problems is not a crime).
It wasn't problem solving that got Marc Rich into
trouble, it was paying his taxes. He should have paid
his taxes like everyone else. How did he solve the
oil crisis?
>As far as esteem, yes, people are not
>as excited to meet this american as they once were.
>Our stock is going down, the rest of the
>world is rising.
A German friend of mine echos the same sentiment. She
works on an American military base near Frankfurt.
She said it was once a source of pride to work for
Americans and generally, Americans were envied. But
over the last few years she says attitudes have
changed. She described it as "disappointment." I
feel our clout has dried up. I blame our current
administration. I think the Iraq fiasco has forever
damaged our influence in the world...at least in my
lifetime. AND, I think the Iraq debacle has left Iran
as the most influential country in the Mid-East.
Invading Iraq was a colossal mistake.
Anthony
Hong Kong: Do You Feel Safe?
Folks,
I already mentioned I met with an educational official in Hong Kong regarding
"free trade in
education worldwide" but I saved one part of the conversation for now.
At one point in our 2 hour discuission, he asked me if I "felt safe." This was
a very odd
question, and the short answer was "yes." Perhaps he was talking about in
China, and I
related that although it was wild and free there, violence for gain doesn't seem
to be a part of
the landscape. This relative absence of violence is typical of free markets,
further making my
point about Chinese freedom. Certainly under the communists I was safe, simply
because
they had total control and no one would dare approach me. China was poor and
miserable
under that kind of "safety."
Among the events that happened in China is one I'll mention now. At the close
of the last
day of the first phase of the fair; there were simply too many people wanting
taxis, so there
was a massive shortage. What happened next was pure free market...
The more adventurous part of the crowd, me included, simply waded into traffic
and hired
out various citizens in their cars to take us to our destinations. As soon as
drivers figured
out what was going on, the traffic patterns changed to accomodate the need to
move people,
balanced with the movement of those drivers wishing to make a quick yuan.
A taxi to the train station from the Pao Zhou fair grounds would be about Y30.
I was first
quoted Y100 to my destination. Well, that is only about $12, but there is the
principle of the
thing, so I waved that one off... funny thing, somehow, I suspect via cell
phone, all drivers
knew instantly that the going rate was Y100.
Anyway, those willing to pay Y100 got rides as the rest of us kept offering
less... as the
market for Y100 rides began to dry up (that is riders willing to pay that much
took rides) and
we willing to pay less stood around, the price started dropping. Fearful of
getting no quick
yuan, as opposed to Y100 quick yuan, those dawdling drivers began to offer lower
rates,
which I rejected, but some took.
Then that market cleared... and citizen-drivers began asking us to name our
prices..(how,
when we did not speak their language, nor they ours? They held out their cell
phones and
and pantomimed us typing in the price... back and forth the cell-phones went..
and that
market began clearing... I agreed to Y60... I really didn't know what a good
price was, since i
was leaving China by bus and was to go to a hotel in Guangzhou where the bus
stopped
before heading to Hong Kong. I had no idea where this Hotel was. Anyway, a
fellow in a light
truck and I settled on a price and off we went to the hotel, the name of which
and address
was on my bus ticket.
So there we have a typical free market, a problem and a solution. There was a
shortage of
transport, and those willing to help solve the problem did so. And got paid for
it. (The
shortage was a result of taxi companies forced to charge a regulated rate.
Those who waited
in line for real taxis got a regulated price, but they were either too late or
too early for their
ride out of China. Regulations always induce chaos.)
Although the first offers were "gouging" there was no coercion, both sides
willingly agreed to
a price, and off they went. All sides were satisfied. Problem solved. The
celerity with which
the Chinese exercised free market action is something few if anyone are taking
into account.
There is no one in our govt or politics or for that matter big business who can
compete with
these people. Since we have tied ourselves up, we will hand our wealth to them.
In USA our govt is working on a law that would make it a crime for the free
market to work in
gasoline prices. Instead of those with the greatest need paying the greatest
price and
clearing bottlenecks and shortages, the govt is looking at making
problem-solving a crime
(Marc Rich single handedly solved the USA oil crisis in the 1970's, and the govt
called it a
felony. He escaped to Switzerland with his billions, where solving problems is
not a crime).
Under the communists, there were no private cars, let alone cel phones. Today
Chinese are
using these to advance their own interests.
So back to safety... I was perfectly safe because criminals are cowards and
usually have to
carefully plan their crimes. The swiftness of this event militated against
criminals getting
involved. I was perfectly safe.
Then of course, he could not mean "was I safe in Hong Kong..." Hong Kong is one
of the
freest places on earth, so it is one of the safest.
As i walked the streets of Hong Kong I saw dozens of Osama bin Laden
look-alikes, and
moslems from around the world. The Moslems have large mosques on prime real
estate in
both Kowloon and Hong Kong side. I am sure I passed plenty of young, hard
Moslems who
wished this Christian dead. But there are two parts to Hong Kong safety:
1. Everyone is busy freely contracting, and working to capacity. None of the
market
distortions causing poverty and injustice that you see in well-regulated
economies.
2. There are redundant communication systems... the second a crime was
committed, the
taxis would relay info to the police, the Hindi touts that work the streets with
cell phones
stuck to their ears would see all and report all, the beggars in Hong Kong are
organized into
a kingdom, and they'd sell their info to the police. For a city of seven
million people, cops are
very thin on the ground, but then they don't need many cops.
There is also plenty of private security. In upscale shops and jewelry stores
sometimes you
see shotgun-armed Sikhs and Ghurkas standing by. (The Sikhs are turbanned and
frown; the
Gurkhas wear berets and grin). I find it comforting.
In spite of this, or perhaps because of this, Hong Kong has the highest rate of
apprehension
in the world. The next part is, since the communists own Hong Kong, anyone
misbehaving,
or upsetting the apple cart, the whole group would suffer much. If there is to
be violence,
take it to Bali of Pukhet.
So I was having a hard time gettng to his question... so i turned the question
around. "Did HE
feel safe?' Well, things had changed. He got his MBA and PHD in the USA. Up
until recently,
that was a good career move. But more recently, he has had to explain to the
vast majority of
his associates who have not been to USA, what's up with USA. Our policies are
criminal, if not
suicidal, to the rest of the world. He who was educated in USA, surely can make
sense of it.
Well, no, he cannot.
Now this is where it got interesting: the esteem with which he was once held
having been
educated in USA, has dropped much. Before, he was an elite, and now, not so
much. Since
he leveraged much of his well-being with a USA education, his personal stock has
fallen
more, leveraged as it is. In that measure, his well being has taken a hit.
Schadenfreude
being what it is, and those who had to forgo promotion in deference to those
educated in
USA are losing no time in exacting their revenge. To compensate he even had to
overstate
his displeasure with USA to all listeners. Is this true worldwide? This is an
interesting cost to
us, I think.
For my part, I wouldn't want to overstate the case by saying I feel less safe.
I might term it as
a reduction in esteem. I will not criticize USA overseas, nor let others. I
turn the tables and
point out Australian (or whoever) complicity in USA policy, noting how USA
politicians always
refer to foreign support as reason for their policies. "Don't complain to me
when terrorists
are blowing up YOUR train stations for being our allies." This usually shuts
the complainers
up wiki wiki.
This argument won't fly when some taxi driver is giving me hell, since I'll
never get my point
across anyway. But as far as safety, I'd say no change. As far as esteem, yes,
people are not
as excited to meet this american as they once were. Our stock is going down,
the rest of the
world is rising.
And one more aspect to this, as a part of this educators grievance, he asked me
a couple of
favors I should do on his behalf. I loved it! He was in essence asking me to
make up his loss
personally... I should take action to help, gratis, in compensation for his loss
of esteem. He
was still trading away, even on the way down! Well of course, my position is
"hell no, this
casino does not make refunds. You placed your bets, you took your risks..." We
parted with
our positions understood, and we look forward to mutually beneficial trade.
People say China trades with USA. Perhaps China/USA trade changes would affect
people
who talk like that. I say, John Spiers trades with Raymond Leung. In my speak,
what happens
in USA China trade has no bearing on me. The part of USA that is disintegrating
is the
Hamiltonian part... it really has nothing to do with me, it is not costing me
anything. Those
who bet on the Hamiltonians are losing out. Yes, there is a lessening of esteem
for me as an
american, but I was never trading on being an american before anyway. No big
deal to me.
John
Wednesday, May 3, 2006
Pope Moves in on My Racket
Folks,
Jerry Garcia said "It's not enough to be the best at what you do, you've got to
be the only
one." Small business international trade? I am the only one.
Except now, here comes the Vatican...
"...many forms of charitable work intended to promote development have arisen
in the
Church: hospitals, universities, professional formation schools, and small
businesses. Such
initiatives ... (are) far in advance of other forms of social welfare. These
charitable activities
point out the way to achieve a globalization that is focused upon the true good
of mankind
and, hence, the path towards authentic peace."
http://tinyurl.com/o7wq7
"Small Businesses?! Far in advance of other forms of social welfare?! Up there
with hospitals?
The path towards authentic peace!?" That is MY schtick, I had it first, and I
can prove it!
On the other hand, the Vatican has worldwide distribution. Maybe I should work
out some
sort of joint venture. I am open to ideas here.
John
How I Went into China
Folks,
I've been asked before if I'd lead a "trade delegation" into China and the
answer is no way, it
will never happen. First, self-employment is a lifestyle thing, and I'd never
do that to myself,
that is lead a tour group.
Second, getting in and around is safe, easy and efficient, nothing like
travelling in USA, in
spite of the fact that you are in an alien culture. And if you have any
questions, eveyone
speaks english.
THE #1 REASON people want to be in int’l trade is for the travel. The #1
complaint of people
in int’l trade is the travel. I have zero interest in flying to Hong Kong and
China, but
opportunity forced me to do so. I am trying to get out out of the travel part,
but they keep
pulling me back.
Two specific tasks were 1. to spend face time with a printer who can get my book
down to $3
a copy landed USA, best price I can get in USA is $14. It isn't ever going to
make bestseller at
$26 for the paperback. 2. to explain some very unusual techniques in handknotted
carpets to
be introduced in the USA market, and to explain how we were not going for an
exclusive, but
a royalty as they sell my carpets everywhere. This had to be explained face to
face.
I knew I was going, and since I was going, it was a matter of optimizing my time
and
opportunities to meet as many people as possible in as short a period as
possible. 18 April
was optimum, but the $800 ticket I was eyeing jumped to $3300 while I tarried,
and my
hotels jumped from $150 to $300 a night. Naturally, most people are around at
the height of
the biz season, makng everything more expensive. I know there are cheaper
tickets out
there, but I wanted this time, this flight.
Further, my rug contact could not get out of China, meaning I had to go in,
something I
hadn’t done in 25 years. We agreed to meet at the Canton Fair. I checked out
the current
process for getting into the fair, under the fair auspices, and it was a
bureuacratic waste of
time and money. I can’t have that.
First the airline ticket problem... I went to the hktdc website to see what
shows were going
on, and there happened to be a housewares show in Hong Kong the week I wanted to
fly... I
clicked through to find the airline that was the “official carrier” for the
show, in this case
Cathay Pacific. A good outfit. I clicked thru to their special promotion code
page, and there
was my ticket, available for $800. The website would not accept the
reservatgion at this
price, so i called their sales office, vexed, vexed I tell you! that their
website was not
accepting my reservation. "What price was quoted?", she asked. $800 I said,
and she forced
the issue from her end, getting me the ticket. No restrictions.
Next, the hotels. Hong Kong charities are rich, because the people there are
free. Our govt
tells us they must take money from your paycheck, or people will starve in the
streets. Most
people in hong kong pay no taxes whatsoever, yet the charities are quite flush.
The YMCA
runs first class hotels at very low rates (all full on my dates). In fact, the
Y has a high rise
next door to the Peninsula Hotel, Hong Kong’s finest. YMCA hotel rooms in NY
and SF would
disgrace a county jail. In Hong Kong they are first class.
Clicking thru I found the Catholics have a chain of hotels sponsored by Caritas
called Bianchi
Lodge. The put up people in distress in these places, women beat up, the
orphaned,
whoever, but there is so much help in Hong Kong that a lot of these rooms are
available, so
they rent them out. $50 a night, breakfast included. They look like a motel Six
room (well,
the way a motel six rooms are advertised to look). Just to put poverty in Hong
Kong in
perspective, this particular hotel has a day spa as well, in case the indigent
might want a
massage and a hairdo. I am not making this up.
I called Hong Kong, made the res over the phone, they had to waitlist me on two
of the nights
I wanted, but they eventually cleared me for the whole run.
The problem of crossing into Red China I decided i would deal with in Hong Kong,
because I
had a plan. But before I left, I asked my contact who could not leave China is
she could email
me an .pdf invitation from her corporation, she did, but it was from Dalian and
for visting
Dalian, not Guangzhou. No matter. It had a communist seal on it, and that
opens doors. I
land 6am Hong Kong time on Tuesday, and I have to meet with the communists on
Wednesday.
I land, go to the hotel, they had room availble, clean neat quiet, fully
outfitted. Overlooking a
churchyard, good location for my purposes. I showered, suited up, and heading
to China
Travel Service on Nathan Road, opening at 9am. This si the hard core government
travel
outfit, no nonsense. Took a number and waited my turn, and booked an early train
in, and a
late bus out for Wednesday, and early train in, late train out for a week
later... Problem: No
visa!!! "No, can I get one from you?" Alarmed, she asks "have you ever been to
china
before.?" Yes. "Have you ever been denied a visa to China before?" Not yet.
"We make
application, see what happens." $180 dollars later, I won't know until 6pm that
night if I am
going to China next day.
The alternative would have been to try to get an invitation from the Chinese
Fair authorities,
which would mean much rigamarole, many hands, plenty of fees. That's not for me.
Then off to lunch, and my tailor. "O you keep in such good shape!" (Liar!) It
takes a long
time to get them to back off trying to get me to buy the stuff on their shelves,
and force them
to go out and buy the beatiuful fabrics I want..
No donegal tweed, then no suit. So I ordered one less suit than I wanted, but
they agreed to
make what I want if I send them 4.5 yard of tweed. Zero demand for real donegal
tweed suits
for some reason. What is this world coming to?!
Measurements taken, come back at 6 for first fitting. Now this may seem rather
rapid, but
some of the material in this first fitting is just scraps to get the ranges
right for the second
fitting in 2 days, after I come back from China.
I took a quick tour of my old haunts and found everything the way it was pretty
much, quality
lasts, and headed to the pool at the Hong Kong Hotel (now Marco Polo Hong Kong
Hotel to
drink and read. Come six oclock off to china travel service... all is well,
tickets, visa... and
back to the tailor for first fitting...then back to hotel to crash before
heading to china.
Train station. My passport number and visa does not show up in the Chinese
computers,
please step this way. Sigh. A few minutes later, "sorry for inconvenience,
please go ahead." I
asked a friend of mine with US Immigration what would happen if my passport
number did
not show up as I was entering Seattle. He said, "next stop, Federal Detention,
South." In
China if the government computers are wrong, they wave you through politely. In
USA, if the
government computers are wrong, you'll be arrested.
Board the train with my Starbucks Mocha and the Chinese offering instant coffee.
Long ago
as we approached the border everyone got ready to deboard the Capitalist train
to walk
across the bridge at Lo Wu to get on the Communist train. Now everyone pops open
their cel
phones to take out the Hong Kong sim cards and insert china sim cards, as the
train sails
straight on through. Click click click click..., like soldiers about to enter
battle.
De-boarding in Guangzhou (Canton) the way is clear, clean, safe, crowded,
orderly...maybe
even more so than under the Maoists. I already mentioned when I stopped by the
bank
window a street trader tried to get me to change out of HIS dollars as I changed
out of mine.
Sorry, I am a guest of the communists, and I won't misbehave. 25 years ago
there would
have been no currency hustler, no one would have dared come near me, and
certainly at the
slightest mischief the security services would have been on all of the players.
As far as I
could tell, the bank clerk making the conversion couldn't care less if I broke
the law.
I don't think I've seen this train station before, but no matter, it is quite
modern and rationally
laid out. I follow the hong kong traders to the taxi stand, and rudely wade
into the sea of
taxis to snag one myself. I know maybe 3 phrases in cantonese... "Jo sun!"
(good morning)
which I find relaxes the poor taxi drivers who fear they will lose money somehow
with a lost
tourist. Then I said "Dong Fang Bingguan" which is a particular hotel directly
across the
street from the fair grounds. Off we go!
I cannot imagine that any city on earth in all of history has transformed as
much as Canton in
the last 25 years. Astonishing. And I hear Shanghai has had an even greater
transformation.
Chinese creativity and energy has been let loose! Traffic is abominable, but
the Chinese are
expanding mag lev transport after its successful introduction in Shanghai, so
they may
leapfrog the West in this as well.
We make it to the Hotel, it is physically still there, but the transformation is
wild. It is
crammed with booths of businesses showing samples, but not part of the fair
itself. 25 years
ago there was a huge billboard listing Deng Xiaoping's "four modernizations."
The billboard is
still there, now with Deng Xiaoping smiling over pictures of this new china.
Where I once
waded through a sea of bicycles to cross the street to the fair, they have now
built pedestrian
tunnels cuz you ain't going out in that traffic.
Security is tight at the fair itself, I present my invitation from the
Communists in Dalian and
that moves me to the head of the long line, where I am asked if I ever attended
the fair
before. "Yes, before you were born..." There I was in their computer, so I was
photographed,
issued a photo-id, barcoded, hologrammed, good for 5 years.
Crowds, far more people than I ever remember, from far more places.
First thing you see is a directional sign, with explicit instruction for how to
find a Mosque on
the grounds in which to pray. In green no less. Moslems are still getting
special treatment,
just as they were 30 years ago. But now the Russians are getting VIP treatment
too. I was
handed things by people in the street, brochures in Russian.
I cruise the fairgrounds and showrooms, everyone is bringing the chinese their
designs, and
the chinese are making it. They are making everything, and why wouldn't they,
since they
cover 1/4 of mankind. Add to this USA govt policy which dissuades americans
from making
things, and to load up on debt, and a lot of this success is compliments of you
and me, to be
paid for later.
US govt policy is unsustainable, so they are changing the subject. In time
trade will flow
elsewhere. Chinese creativity is in reaction to USA policy. When USA policy
changes, I hope it
is for the better, because we can out-compete the Chinese as they are now. The
republican
and democrats cannot, but free-traders can. Free trade in Hong Kong and China
is only
relative. If USA went back to absolute free trade, no one could out-compete us,
and China
would evolve further as a Chinese free market. And again, competition is to
strive with, not
to fight with. With free markets we'd get more, faster, cheaper and better.
Everyone would.
In the meantime, I gotta get designs that mimic a bear rug on 120 line, 5/8ths
inch natural
undyed wool handknotted carpets, deep carved, 8 x 10 feet for some retailers in
Aspen and
Haley to trick out private ski lodges. I have my priorities, and politics just
have to wait.
John
Tuesday, May 2, 2006
Canton Fair Stats
Folks,
One of the first things that struck me in Guangzhou was the crowds... 25 years
ago there were
maybe 150 Americans there, although there were people from all over the world.
The fair has
been enlarged greatly, plus there is an unofficial fair going on all over the
city, with this unofficial
fair booths and storefronts set up everywhere.
Now keep in mind this fair, The Chinese Export Commodities Fair (CECF) is
China's premier export
fair, and only exports, and the exhibitors are generally the Chinese state
enterprises, so their stats
relate only to those trading with official China. This entity has no stats on
that vast market
outside the fair, that extends for miles each way.
I had some free time before my first appointment so I went into the press office
to get trade fair
stats, but the communist staffers were not about to hand out Chinese Govt Info
to an American,
and they blew me off with some website addresses.
Well, there was plenty of good information at the websites anyway...
Here you can see back in the 70's when I went there twice a year there were
about 100 countries
trading with the Communists and about 200 people per country visiting at the
time. That sounds
about right from my memory. It was much more village, communal like back then.
25 years later, there are twice as many countries trading with China and ten
times the visitors per
country, on average. What is missing here is the stats on USA alone, which I
suspect will
demonstrate the other side of the coin: Chinas sales to the world are rising
fast, USA trade is
dropping at the same time.
http://www.cantonfair.org.cn/en/info/statistics/visitors/index.htm
Next we see the CECF is doing over 10 times as much business as 25 years ago,
but what is
missing here is 25 years ago ALL of China's exports went thru this show, but now
none of those
vast markets outside the fair are counted in. Again, this demonstrates there
is a large economy
that is not under the thumb of the communists, and in that measure a free
market.
http://www.cantonfair.org.cn/en/info/statistics/turnover/index.htm
Then the fairs director reviews the last fair and observes some specifics not
show in the stats...
"The top five countries and regions in terms of participating buyers are Hong
Kong, USA, Taiwan,
Japan and Thailand, whose numbers of buyers are respectively 32,646, 11,528,
10,453, 6,414,
and 5,636."
and
"the second is that the number of European and American buyers increases
significantly, among
whom there are 31640 European buyers and 11526 American buyers, increasing by
33.8% and by
2.2% over the last session respectively; the third is that the number of new
buyers rises rapidly.
While the number of old buyers maintains a stable growth, the number of new
buyers attending
the fair reaches 78,635, taking up 46% of the total; the forth is that the
number of high-quality
buyers increases considerably"
So USA and Taiwan have about the same number of buyers, yet China is supposed to
be threat to
Taiwan...? Something is not right there... These new buyers are young, as far
as I can tell... and it
seems very many of them are Russian.
Asians are by far the major attendees at the fair, with Malays, and Thai and
Singaporeans
outsourcing to China as well, with a view to selling all over the world from
China.
The other thing is Americans as a group are not growing much at all (and if you
read on at the link
below it is clear USA buyers are the big companies.
http://www.cantonfair.org.cn/en/info/96Conclusion.htm
So a couple of things this underscores...
1. Trading patterns are changing, heavily, away from USA as the center.
2. There is quite a bit of trade that is off the Communist radar.
3. Personal experience: Retailer said it was a good idea and did not exist in
January, in March had
designs from designer, which I sent to China, in April I picked up a sample of a
handknotted rug in
China, with more samples to be fedexed in a couple of weeks. China is ready
willing and able to
produce. It is a remarakably easy place to do business.
A fellow listmember, unaware I was in China, emailed me and asked if she should
attend an asian
trade fair just for ideas. You know I am against that as a policy, but it might
scare you into action
to see the rest of the world busy getting busy as we chatter away about Mexicans
marching or
whatever the diversion du jour is to keep our minds off the mess our politicians
have made.
John
Monday, May 1, 2006
We Pay Most for Medicine
Re: [spiers] We Pay Most for Medicine
Indeed, I recall when Rev. Moon founded the Washington Times as part of his
Unification
Church empire, I believe it was Mother Jones magazine way back when that
traced the
money from Washington Times the the Moonies to the Korean CIA, and to the CIA ..
and even
according to Rev. moon the paper has cost over a billion dollars in subsidies.
Their writers, such as Tony Snow, Tony Blankley and Pat Buchanan all have made
clear they
have NEVER been told what to write by the paper. But then, they wouldn't have
to be told,
would they?
I am sure there are plenty of doctors breaking the rules, and now that mexico is
considering
decriminalizing persoanl use of heroin, pot and cocaine, these excellent drugs
will be
available for then purposes they were created, and the specific ailments they
alleviate. Now if
mexico will just decriminalize free trade in medical care too, we can all rest
easy knowing
more, better, faster and cheaper medicine is available right next door.
John
On Wed, 26 Apr 2006 20:45:02 EDT, mannyr1966@aol.com wrote :
>
> John,
>
> For some reason, I'm suspect of the accuracy and the motive this story
> allegedly surfaces. Some of that may come from the media its in, the
Washington
> Times. This is the same newspaper the first president Bush said is the only
> newspaper he felt reported the truth.
>
> Manny
>
> In a message dated 4/4/2006 7:27:45 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
> john@johnspiers.com writes:
>
> http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20060402-112827-1934r.htm
China Currency and Trade
Re: [spiers] Re: China Currency and Trade
Anthony,
For what's going on, check in with Bill Gross at PIMCO, a fellow working at the
level of Warren
Buffett and such...
http://tinyurl.com/fjrrq
but to answer specifically...
On Mon, 01 May 2006 05:35:39 -0000, "mgranich"
But why would China allow it's largest customer's currency to tank?
> Lets say the dollar looses 50% of it's value. Even Chinese goods
> would become expensive. Chinese exports would slow. Millions of
> Chinese workers would be jobless, political unrest would surely
> follow. It sounds like a recipe for disaster.
***USA policy helps extremely few people and harms all the consumers, no matter
which
party is in power. There are two sides to the distortion, and the Chinese are
simply playing
the other side of our policy. Our disasters are being authored by us.
Having said that, as Japan's products got more expensive for USA, Japan got
richer and we
bought ever more. Don't look at what China sells, look at what they buy. If
our dollar tanks,
they get our oil and our food much cheaper than they do now. How is that bad
for them?
I was at both phases of the Chinese Export Commodities Fair over the last two
weeks, and
rarely saw an american. China is packed, 100,000s of thousands of young people,
from
around the world, flooding in to buy Chinese goods. Since USA policy causes USA
manufactories to transfer technology to China, Chinese quality and ability has
risen greatly.
Again, forget about cheap labor. Labor rates are shooting up in China because
China has a
tremendous shortage of labor. Yes, there are billions of farmers in China paid
little, but you
can't take some hillbilly and put him on welding cars. Hong Kong has a higher
per capita
income than USA, but Hong Kong is suffering a youth drain of young people moving
to China
for opportunity.
If China stops selling to us, so will all those Venezuelans, Congolese and
Romanians... the
deal where we exract their natural resources and sell them our manufactured
goods in return
will simply transfer to the Chinese.
Had a long talk with a educational official in Hong Kong who badly wants
training, in china.
The Chinese won't settle for diploma mills, they want accredited schools from
usa set up in
china. The last thing they want that they are not getting enough of is usa
education. I
promised to do what I can.
As we pursue disastrous policies slow motion, the Chinese will play the other
side, and slowly
move into position #1, compliments of USA politicians, who were given their
power by we
USA citizens. The millions of jobless and political unrest is far more likely
in our future than
in chinese future, and I'll say it again: the chinese are far freer
economically now than we are.
(I'll have some anecdotes later, but as a practical matter when the Chinese govt
is not
applying its rules, it is the same thing as freedom. ) Chinese genius has been
loosened, and
Chinese economy is soaring likes its skyscrapers in its cities. Don't blame the
chinese for
taking the other side of the bet when we stacked the deck.***
>
> And, What are the chances the US will end up like Chile, or
> Argentina of old with runaway inflation? Will my retirement
> savings be wiped out, worthless?
>
***Well, retirements being worthless is nothing new...in the 70's we were warned
of it, in the
80's they got the truckers, in the 90's they got the pilots, now they are
nailing the auto
workers... it will get around to us all.
You cannot have these destructive policies and expect all to turn out well. But
it is all
tradable, meaning, no matter what there is a buck to be made. Whatever field
you are in, you
will always be able to serve others, and do better. This the key,
self-employment.
Who knows what magical thing will happen. Millions of immigrants are taking to
the streets
in USA, displeased that the policies to benefit a few are costing the many much.
There is
even some talk of reconquista, or taking back California! I think it rather
wierd for a people
who fled a country for its poor policies, in this case mexicans fleeing mexico,
to seek to bring
the new country under the control of the old country. How does that make sense?
Far better
for the immigrants to seek Indepencia then reconquista. I would welcome
millions of
mexicans turning california into another Hong Kong, a free market zone, or even
just Los
Angeles or the Bay Area. Do what Singapore did, gain independence without
firing a shot. I'd
move there in a flash.
Or better yet, turn the Seattle area into another Hong Kong. Hmmm... I'll have
to think about
this.
John
China Currency and Trade
Re: [spiers] Re: China Currency and Trade
Anthony,
Your question "But why would China allow it's largest customer's currency to
tank? " ... implies that the Chinese are the ones behind the fall or are in
favor of it. I believe that is not the case.
The US gov't has been trying to get China to re-evaluate their currency for
years. The RMBY was pegged to the dollar, if the dollar fell the RMBY would fall
also. China is now using a "basket of currency" float which will smooth out the
fluctuations of the dollar. Devaluation of the dollar means the US would be
paying their debt to China with currency worth less that it is today. Good for
the US, not China.
If I was a conspiracy person, I would posit that the US is working the value of
the dollar down, as it did at the beginning of Gulf War II. The dollar fell then
to punish Old Europe for not supporting the war. The cost of European export
went up so their imports to the US cost more and were less attractive. If the US
can devalue the dollar, our outstanding debts can be paid off with cheaper
currency, the cost of imports will increase and importation will slow reducing
the international (China) trade deficit. I expect a short term drop in consumer
spending because of increased gasoline prices which will reduce the trade
imbalance with China even further.
This runs against the current indicators of consumer sentiment so I may be off
base here. This summer gas prices will be an interesting story but the big hit
will occur in the fall when heating prices are projected. That story should
break right after the fall elections.
"And, What are the chances the US will end up like Chile, or Argentina of old
with runaway inflation? Will my retirement savings be wiped out, worthless? "
... If we continue on the current course we will BE Chile or Argentina, not LIKE
them. The stratification of wealth in the US is a mirror of South and Central
America. It is only home ownership which separates us from them. The middle
class has all their eggs in one basket, their home. A drop in real estate values
or an inability to borrow against that value is the functional end of the gravy
train. I lived through 17 percent interest mortgage rates. I am not sure we
would survive that again.
I am still trying to make sense of John's comment on currency sellers getting
out of the dollar. I have a bad feeling it is somehow tied to my comments above.
I hope I am wrong.
Randy
Sunday, April 30, 2006
China Currency and Trade
Re: China Currency and Trade
I read a story from the TimesOnline: www.timesonline.co.uk, that
claims the dollar is beginning a steep decline, particularly against
Asian currencies. They cite an 800 Billion account deficit (not
sure what "account" they are talking about) and that China raised a
key lending rate to 5.85%.
But why would China allow it's largest customer's currency to tank?
Lets say the dollar looses 50% of it's value. Even Chinese goods
would become expensive. Chinese exports would slow. Millions of
Chinese workers would be jobless, political unrest would surely
follow. It sounds like a recipe for disaster.
And, What are the chances the US will end up like Chile, or
Argentina of old with runaway inflation? Will my retirement
savings be wiped out, worthless?
Thinking the worse,
Anthony
--- In spiers@yahoogroups.com, "John Spiers"
>
> Folks,
>
> I am in Hong Kong right now, taking care of a few things, more on
that
> anon. It is fun to watch the news here, and compare the free
press in Hong
> Kong and the Chinese State media, and compare the two. More on
that later
> also.
>
> One thing that jumped out when I went into China the other day was
the
> street hustlers were trying to get RID of their USA currency.
I've never
> seen this before. Black marketers have always wanted to get INTO
the US
> dollar. The second time in, the bank at the train station simply
had no
> RMBY to exchange. "No more money" the sign said. If you plan to
visit
> China in the next year, you may want to load up on RMBY now... you
can get
> it from HSBC in USA.
>
> If street hustlers are trying to get out of the dollar, the end is
nearer
> than I thought, although who knows what that will look like.
>
> USA is pressuring China to make the Yuan more ewxpensive, so usa
exports
> are less expensive, and imports to usa are more expensive. Please
> understand what this means: our government wants we consumers to
fare less
> well, to benefit a very small group of people, USA big biz, the
republicans
> friends (when the dems sweep congress this fall, their friends
will start
> to do better). Now, this is not debatable, it is not conspiracy,
it is
> just policy. And of course I object, for what it is worth.
>
> The Chinese will change things when it best benefits them, but a
couple of
> points. Although the Hong Kong dollar is a free market currency,
produced
> by private companies, and properly so (three different companies
print
> currency in Hong Kong, and the three of them compete against each
other...
> with the Hong Kong govt issuing some vouchers as well... just like
it used
> to be in USA), the fact of the matter is Hong Kong is a fully
owned
> subsidiary of the Communist party, so they own it. Hong Kong
represents
> fantastic wealth and money flows. I've never heard anyone take
this into
> account when estimating Chinese econ power. I think the numbers
US policy
> makers are working with are wildly under-estimated.
>
> US policy makers were shocked, shocked when the dollar
strengthened against
> the euro. "The currency markets misread us" say the policy wonks.
At any
> rate, the policy makers are admitting they do not have the control
they
> think they have.
>
> Finally, I asked my banker in Hong Kong if I could use my hong
kong money
> to invest in hong kong stocks. No. The price of doing business
in USA is
> to cooperate with the US Govt in forbidding US citizens to protect
> themselves against US econ policy. I object!
>
> "May you live in interesting times" is a Chinese curse.
>
> John
Liability Insurance?
My wife and I want to develop a line of skin creams and have them
formulated in the best possible place in high end markets. However, I
was wondering about liability insurance. If someone else mixes the
creams and I simply put my name on them, who is liable in a court if
someone should sue? The formulator, or the brander? We have done some
market research according to what I learned in your course and think
that we may have a niche.
thanks,
Richard Ingels
Intellectual Property Protection
Re: [spiers] Intellectual Property Protection
Ismail,
Everything I say has to be taken with a grain of salt, but let me give you some
of the hard
arguments against IP protection... the lawyers advice is likely find for
microsoft, but a disaster
for we at the small biz level.>>>
On Fri, 28 Apr 2006 08:06:10 -0000, "Ismail Zehri"
wrote :
Today, I had a very productive meeting with an attorney
***Hang on... what is your criteria for "productive?"***
> 1. FILE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT [Cost: $10 + mail charges]:
> When you conceive your idea,... This process is
> the acceptance and preservation for two (2) years of the Disclosure
> Document as evidence of the date of conception of an invention by the
> USPTO.
*** There is a psychological disorientation here... any idea should progress
constantly... wht
you have filed is your own idea, lacking any market feedback, which shuld
greatly alter your
intitial idea... waste of time this step, and possibly detrimental, inasmuch as
it lets you
relax.***
> 2. SIGN CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENTS [Cost: $0]:
***I've never met anyone sane who will sign a confidentiality agreement, nor met
anyone who
wanted anything signed who had anything worth keeping confidential. To sign one
is to limit
your rights and abilities as a human, plus it may cause you to lose access to an
idea you
already had. One of the great eliminators of wasted time is to refuse all
confidentiality
agreements.***
> 3. TRADEMARK BRAND NAME [Cost: $0]:
***You don't have to trademark your own name, and anythign else let the designer
own it...
all we want is custoemrs and the constantly changing items that our customers
pay us
premium prices for.***
> 4. FILE PROVISIONAL APPLICATION FOR PATENT [Cost: $215 to $330]
***Again ...leave any IP ownership to the designers, leave selling millions to
walmart...***
>
> By the way, I feel obligated to mention that USPTO's website is one of
> the worst and most confusing websites I've ever used. Hopefully, the
> links that I've provided here will simplify finding the correct
> information.
***Yes, read Stephen Kinsella, a Houston patent atty on how we must eliminate
all IP in USA is
we do not want to go the way of Afganistan and other "rotted-from-within"
cultures that
featured these restrictions to free trade. The point of IP law is to crush humna
freedom, to
make the world safe for crybaby millionaires. They do not want to come out and
play, so
they make rules that say we cannot play either.
It may feel productive to be told all these rules and steps, but not a single
mention of how to
take care of the customer. Start with the customer...everything else falls into
place.
John
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