Saturday, February 5, 2011

Anthony Inquires As To Pareto Principle

Perturbility rate, I first read about it in relation to a criticism of BART, the bay area rapid transit system, and how come it was such a costly mess...  too much new...


what is funny is if you google perturbility rate the only thing that comes up is my blog talking about how you can find it on a  google search...

When things settle down, yes...  80% of my money comes from 20% of my activity... but the problem is people take this and try to use it to manage for more money, missing the point that the less monetarily productive 80% may be where the wherewithal to produce that moneyed 20% comes from.  Think of an actor who makes 80% of his money working on stage 20% of the week, and teaches for  20% of his money 80% of the week.  he is  top actor because of his teaching.   He knows it.  If he also took gigs doing daytime tv acting, he would make more money but be ruined for lack of balance.  Something along these lines.  The pareto principle is probably like gravity: just a word we use for something we cannot quite figure out.


Friday, February 4, 2011

Selecting Product

In my courses I ask people what they would like to trade in, and why.  Often the answer has something to do with perceived ease or simplicity, as though there may be some disadvantage to a complex product, like surgeons' laser blades, or one complex by regulation, like wine, or troublesome due to say fragility, like glassware.  Esteemed are simple products, or cheap to send, like digital products.


Innovative products are necessarily using processes that are cumbersome, complex and unusual, in order to arrive at the initial product.  Over time innovation in the production process itself may respond to innovation and simplification, but to start, expect complexity.  (Complexity requires management intensive attention, hence less expensive management is key to innovation.)  IN any event, to be an innovator is to sign up for complexity.


In business paperwork and hassles are farmed out, and the cost thereof is borne by the customers. Therefore, paperwork or hassles or both are never a factor or a consideration. The process starts with a problem you experience now,  and then all flows from that.Holga 120-3D Stereo Camera with Built-In Flash and Brass Tripod Mount


It Ain't Your Money

Please consider this typical thought, expressed by a leading liberal thinker:

“In what sense in the money in our pockets and bank accounts fully ‘ours’? Did we earn 
it by our own autonomous efforts? Could we have inherited it without the assistance of 
probate courts? Do we save it without the support of bank regulators? Could we spend it 
if there were no public officials to coordinate the efforts and pool the resources of the 
community in which we live?... Without taxes there would be no liberty. Without taxes 
there would be no property. Without taxes, few of us would have any assets worth 
defending. [It is] a dim fiction that some people enjoy and exercise their rights without 
placing any burden whatsoever on the public fisc. … There is no liberty without 
dependency. That is why we should celebrate tax day …” 
-- Cass R. Sunstein, “Why We Should Celebrate Paying Taxes,” The Chicago 
Tribune, April 14, 1999 

Now, I could not agree more.  He is absolutely right.  How dare anyone depend on the system, and then complain about taxes, especially since taxable are completely voluntary.  Senator Reid is exercised for making such a claim, and the witless interviewer fails to follow up on a clear point.  I guess you actually have to be self-employed to understand that taxes are legally avoidable, largely.  Even Jesus, faced with taxes he explicitly defined as illegitimate, avoided paying them by performing a miracle.

Nonetheless, I criticize the system for two reasons:

1.  All of that protection of wealth is directed at preserving a system that depends on exploitation, and necessarily keeps the pie small while it promotes extraordinary wealth among the few.  In a free market competition would at once limit extraordinary wealth creation and promote division of labor, a better definition of "wealth."  A bigger pie with wider access.

2.  All of the people involved in the services Sunstein cites are unnecessary in a free market. AS we pile regulator upon regulator, enforcement upon enforcement, spy upon spy, we ever misallocate resources to sushi bars, hotels, entertainment, clothes, housing for these people who are not in touch with a free market.

3.  With people oriented to this false economy, for more than 2 or 3 generations, people have lost the cultural capital necessary to start the banks, insurance companies, long line relationships, etc to serve each other.

In places like Egypt, when Mubarak is out, and then his successor is on top of the same system, overthrowing and settling scores will be the order of the day, not economic development, since no one on the ground really knows much about that.  If history is any guide, either the same people will be in charge, or things will get worse.

Long before revolution, there has to be education as to how a free market works.  The tumult in Tunisia started with college grad having a fruit stand condemned. The fruit stand is a good start, but there is much more to an economy.  Not only does the govt have to get out of fruit stand regulation, but banking, insurance, medicine, etc.  But for those to work beneficially, the actors must be versed in free market economics.

Until then, obey gauleiter Sunstein and his ilk, pay the taxes (which of course is a miracle) until you and your children are well versed in how a free market works.  Starting a business is the start of the revolution.


Thursday, February 3, 2011

Christians & Muslims Together

Our criminal invasion of Iraq has subsequently led to a near complete wipe-out of the Christian Churches there, established by Apostles and living in harmony with Muslims for nearly 1000 years.  One way to whip up USA warmongering is to attack Christian Churches overseas, so we can never really be sure as to who is planting the bombs.

Absent of government, Christians and Muslims get along just fine, as Will Grigg reports from Egypt.  Warmongering Christians who support Israel are no true friends of Israel, but Israel takes what it can get, I guess.


Conversation With A Correspondent


"Sell to the masses, live with the swells; sell to the swells, live with the masses."

Is the implication to live conservatively, or humbly, although you could live w/the swells if you wanted, like Warren Buffet lives with the masses, in his little brick house in Omaha?  

***Well, he owns his first home also...  he has a palace in Santa Monica, home is switzerland, etc...  I mean to saying being absorbed in your work inures you to whatever anyone else has...  you are surrounded by what you love.  (Another way to say it:  first generation makes it, 2nd enjoys it, 3rd loses it)***

I want to sketch briefly the milieu of the start-up company.  I break down in the book, following Drucker, the symbiotic relationship between the innovator and the conservator: the innovator introduces the new, the conservator lowers the cost and eventually makes the product or service available universally.  Thus a free market (not what politicians call a free market) effects the introduction and just distribution of goods and services.

Yes, we studied this in business classes at PSU where I got a minor in business, which focused on the entrepreneur and small business.  I'm going to recommend your book to one of my professors there.

***Very kind...  ***


We expect conspicuous consumption from the celebrity CEO people: car, house, clothes, libraries of leather-bound classic books, transport, exclusive club member ship, and the most conspicuous consumption of all: largesse, that is support of charities  (I have so much money, I can just give it away...)  We judge them by their consumption, our judgment a reckoning as to the alacrity with which they do their conservator job.  We want them to have their private jets, their high level meetings, their vacation Islands, because we want our TV shows and our cool cell phones, and Fritos.  

Not sure how their having their private jets, etc. provides us w/our TV shows, etc.  I'm guessing you mean because we are willing to purchase the commodities they sell, we provide them w/their lifestyle?

***Along those lines...  we get vicarious pleasure seeing them lead lives of rich and famous, we are assured the top is in place, and we below obviously support them in their endeavors to give us more better cheaper faster.  (The French revolutionaries were astonished to see the peasants support the king, Turgenev and Checkov struggled with this fact in the Russian case, Eric Hoffer specifically laid it out in True Believer... the masses want their royalty safe and sound.***

While we judge these people on what they consume, these very people are most concerned about getting the cost of what they produce ever lower than what they consume

I'm not sure I completely understand the point you're trying to make here.  What is the relationship between the cost of what they produce and the cost of what they consume?  Are you saying – and I'm not disagreeing, only trying to get clarity – that we should be less judgmental about their consumption because they provide low-cost commodities to the masses – that although their consumption costs are high, they work hard at lowering their production costs so they can pass on the savings to the masses?

*** I am trying to sketch the paradox that those who we expect (demand?) exercise conspicuous consumption are dedicated to getting us more better cheaper faster.  (Judgment comes later when I argue if the business is based on subsidies, and thus unsustainable, if not unjust, then we have a problem.)

The innovators moves in a circle of other innovators, wearing their clothes, eating their food, reading their works, living in their remodeled quarters, often bartering but in any case far more concerned with immersing themselves in the creativity of what they produce than the cost of what they consume.

Is the implication here that conservators consciously consume expensive products to keep up their image, whereas the innovator doesn't identify himself with what he consumes, but with what he produces?
***yes... if I can get that clear.  "Did you see Jack Welch's chalet at Aspen?" vs. "Thanks for inviting me to your timeshare at Whistler... that was a blast, great idea for a ski helmet, I'll have the factory make one up and you can tell me if it is what you were thinking..."    ...something like that...  ***


Snippet of Transcript From The Online Class


 gari: I am a designer, I have the creativity, the ideation, but NO business exp.  This is why I signed up for course.  But I think I have to get over the fact that the ideas I've been carrying around mulling over not knowing how to take the next step... may not be the best ones that will work in this biz.  but they are the ones I am passionate about. 
  gari: make sense?  You have experience with this velocity of seeing probs and taking solutions to market
  gari: this is all new to me
 luvlattes: then find a way gari even if it means tweaking your idea so it works
 Patricko1: I think gari the customer still needs to be questioned.
   Jspiers: gari, what do you mean "in this biz"  we are talking only biz... if the ideas won't work in biz, they wont work, but by getting the ideas out there, you will get real feedback...
  gari: JS the import biz
  gari: I am so new that I am still piecing together what "it" is.  Not inventing,  
Agnieszka0: he needs to test it out as you said
   Jspiers: we are not inventors, we merely experience what all people experience, "why dont they just..?" 
   Jspiers: and then do what everyone does.. think up a solution..
  gari: designing yes... but by biz I mean the numbers, selling, follow thru.  You are teaching an awesome method and I want to get there
   Jspiers: next we do what few others do... we decide if we have a passion and joy for it...
   Jspiers: then we do what almost no one else does, we "shop" the idea... etc...
   Jspiers: see how fewer and fewer people do the next necessary step?


Wednesday, February 2, 2011

China Does Another Judo Flip

The Wall Street Journal has an article on IPR, and US vs China relations.  Mish Shedlock covers it well with cogent commentary.  Aggressive force gets you thrown in judo, and the USA patent regime is illegitimate aggressive force.  The Chinese are using our force to throw us.  You can search intellectual property on this blog and find plenty from economists and patent attorneys explaining why IPR backfires and why we should eliminate it.  Further, they explain why no IPR works best.

USA got off track when, of all people, Thos. Jefferson recommended a patent regime to the founders, but with a twist: the inventor owns the patent, as opposed to Europe, the first to patent.  It has been downhill for USA ever since, locking USA in to an inexorable descent of war, militarism and big government.  Not to mention as Bastiat would note, what unseen good has been crowded out by the bad.  Check out Against Intellectual Monopoly, cited to the left.


Israel In A Desert Storm

Not only is the Fatah regime in Ramallah and the Hamas regime in Gaza destined to fall, but perhaps also, one day, the Israeli occupation, which certainly meets all the criteria of criminal tyranny and an evil regime. It too relies only on guns. It too is hated by all levels of the ruled people, even if they stands helpless, unorganized and unequipped, facing a big army. The first conclusion: Better to end it well, with agreements based on justice and not on power, a moment before the masses have their say and succeed in banishing the darkness.


Pretty inflammatory stuff.  By Gideon Levy in the Haaretz Newspaper, in Israel.  It is silly that such articles could never be printed in USA, leaving only the politically correct view or the deranged view as possible options.  If you cannot speak openly, you can't be friends.


Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Anthony Bird-dogs a Good Resource

Stumbled across this International Trade law blog

http://www.exportimportlaw.com/blog/

This entry supports your theory on re-importing wine as long as you make no changes...

http://www.exportimportlaw.com/blog/2010/9/13/heres-a-spooky-question-about-9802-htsus-when-do-improvement.html

OR, 


Can you sue the government for detaining your shipment?  The answer is here...  

http://www.exportimportlaw.com/blog/2010/8/15/can-you-sue-the-federal-government-for-detaining-your-shipme.html


OR,

It's illegal to import Iranian Persian rugs and food.   


http://www.exportimportlaw.com/blog/2010/9/6/it-will-be-illegal-to-import-persian-rugs-and-iranian-foodst.html


Monday, January 31, 2011

A Sketch of How it Works

Sell to the masses, live with the swells; sell to the swells, live with the masses.

I want to sketch briefly the milieu of the start-up company.  I break down in the book, following Drucker, the symbiotic relationship between the innovator and the conservator: the innovator introduces the new, the conservator lowers the cost and eventually makes the product or service available universally.  Thus a free market (not what politicians call a free market) effects the introduction and just distribution of goods and services.

Now most entrepreneurs get to a certain point, where they find the optimum balance in their business and lifestyle, and stay there, remain a small business.  Some, like a Steve Jobs or a Howard Schulz, go from start-up to conquering the world.  Either way, they start at the beginning, start small.  To get to the place where you can choose to move on to the big time, you must start.

What we innovators introduce is of course rare to begin with, not very well designed, very expensive, and slow to come by or acquire.  The first Nikes, the first cell phones, the first airplanes are all good examples.

Once you get the product good enough to gain enough orders collectively from customers to cover the suppliers minimum production run, in a workable amount of time, profitably, then you are on your way. Of course customer feedback will ever suggest improvements, which lead to wider acceptance, more sales and profits for you.  It will take years to perfect the item to the point where the conservators “steal” the idea, apply their awesome economies of scale in promotion, manufacturing, finance and distribution, and begin their work of taking the item down in price to where it is universally available.  On your side the work takes years of iterations, in which you are taking profits consistently, and after the handoff the conservator also takes years to adjust the item for attracting ever more customers, until it becomes a commodity item, we have more, better, cheaper, faster.

We never introduce a perfect product. You charge a premium for every improvement you make on the way to the perfect product, the conservator takes a profit arbitraging the perceived value of features that are falling in cost faster than the perceived price.

Thus we get true wealth, division of labor, more options for goods and services distributed far more widely.  Those societies lacking in goods and services are lacking in freedom to innovate, and lack freedom from interference.  Poor countries do not lack smart people, they lack respect for rights and the concentration of power in the hands of a few.  In a country where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, the cause is always the same.

Those who run conservator businesses selling commodities, in essence and by definition the basics that everyone relies upon, have leverage in society, and carry heavy responsibility, for it they fail many suffer.  Think of Enron.  If we fail, no one knows and no one cares.  Think of Standard Specialties.  (Who?)

We expect conspicuous consumption from the celebrity CEO people: car, house, clothes, libraries of leather-bound classic books, transport, exclusive club member ship, and the most conspicuous consumption of all: largesse, that is support of charities  (I have so much money, I can just give it away...)  We judge them by their consumption, our judgment a reckoning as to the alacrity with which they do their conservator job.  We want them to have their private jets, their high level meetings, their vacation Islands, because we want our TV shows and our cool cell phones, and Fritos.  While we judge these people on what they consume, these very people are most concerned about getting the cost of what they produce ever lower than what they consume

The very lifestyle they live is actually both a confirmation to the masses their well being is being maintained, and also a sort of golden handcuff, keeping these people at their task.  These people tend to live in gated communities, resembling minimum security prisons.

A tiny but important fraction of the conservators’ disposable income, especially on the part of wives and kids, goes towards the very upscale products the innovators sell. There are the exception, such as the working poor who find the innovative product the most economic option. For example it was a surprise to Apple to learn an important segment of their market are people to poor to pay for phone and a computer and service to both, so the iPhone is most economical.  In any event, it is those largely those wealthy from conservator activities who finance the introduction of the new and different by their patronage. It may be a tiny fraction of their disposable income, but it is more than enough to launch a thousand companies. 

It is not uncommon for the rich to be the ones who first install indoor plumbing, champion experimental drugs (on themselves), and encourage the bicycle making Wright Brothers to reach for the stars. It is not “finance” that gets a company launched, it is paying customers who will cover the super premiums necessary on small production of exceptionally complicated sourcing required for an innovative product.

The innovator’s job is his lifestyle, and he has not the slightest interest in such games as golf, in which amusingly attired adults both knock away and then fetch a little ball, often in the rain, so that an important conversation may occur between the players, something inexplicably critical to the conservators.

The innovators moves in a circle of other innovators, wearing their clothes, eating their food, reading their works, living in their remodeled quarters, often bartering but in any case far more concerned with immersing themselves in the creativity of what they produce than the cost of what they consume.

As an innovator, one who competes on design, not on price, people judge you on what you produce, and you are most concerned about getting what you produce ever better than what people consume now.  You are what you do.  And as you do it, you make begin to undermine the desirability of some commodity item, offering a better alternative, or making an item irrelevant, like the cell phone did to the wristwatch.

Just as CEO of IBM in 1979 was setting into a banquet celebrating the indisputable leadership worldwide of their monster company, and its awesome 5 year plan, his wife was agreeing to buy the funny little Apple Computer his daughter so longed for halfway across the country.  And so the process ever goes.