Hong Kong Watch Business

Hong Kong is the world center for counterfeit watches.  Even the United States Government allows  people returning from Hong Kong to bring back one fake of just about anything.

However, travelers arriving in the United States may be permitted an exemption and allowed to import one article of each type, which must accompany the person, bearing a counterfeit, confusingly similar or restricted gray market trademark, provided that the article is for personal use and is not for sale.

Once a friend asked me to buy her a fake Rolex in Hong Kong.  For so many years I had ignored or rebuffed the fake Rolex sellers at the corner of Peking Street heading toward Canton Road in Kowloon, that when yet again I was offered a Rolex while waiting for the traffic to clear so I could make a safe crossing, I ignored the tout.

Halfway across the street, I recalled my friend's request, so I turned around and went back to the seller and said, "I don't want to buy a Rolex, I want to by a fake Rolex."  He looked at me strangely, and then said "What the hell do you think I sell?"

Ah! Having arrived at what was on order, I followed him underground to a room crowded with buyers, sellers and watches.  Impressive.  After selecting the Rolex, I inquired if they had any Tag Heuer items, and I was assured the Spring line would be available within weeks.

Now note that all of this "counterfeiting" takes place literally in the shadows of the authorized dealers of the real Rolex, etc.

So what is the effect on the market when there is unlimited counterfeiting next to the legitimate item for sale?

Why, all of the luxury brands have their best sales in Hong Kong.  Fully 20% of the world production of luxury watches is sold in Hong Kong.


Watches are big business in Hong Kong. In 2011, export figures from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry revealed that Hong Kong was the world’s largest single market for watches, with 21.2 per cent of Swiss production ending up here. That’s more than twice as much as the second-largest importer, the United States.
With such a dominant position, it’s no surprise that Hong Kong leads the world in luxury watches, meeting strong demand locally, but especially from the Chinese mainland. Luxury watches are not just worn and enjoyed, but are also considered solid investments, with the rarest timepieces commanding millions of Hong Kong dollars at auction.


The lesson is, if you want to have a good business, you must have a free market.  Hong Kong is only 7 million people, and USA is over 350 million people, yet Hong Kong is twice the market for luxury watches.

Here is more on Hong Kong watches.  Note design contests held by private entity HKTDC.


In the USA the government encourages young people to get on the food stamp program.

The government in Hong Kong has not bought 5 illegal bullets to be used on every citizen because they have free markets.  If we had free markets, we would have peace and prosperity too.  But lawyers, who are all Government workers, would rather rule in hell than be shoe clerks in Heaven.

Update:  Hong Kong is also becoming a watch-repair center.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

Robots, Holograms and Market Opportunities

Here is a perfect example of looking at what is and failing to see what will be.  The issue is computer generated models:

Bad news for supermodels: They’re being upstaged by computerized versions that look just like them--except even more perfect. Swedish fashion retailer H&M and French flash-sale site Vente-privee--which recently launched in the U.S. in partnership with American Express—both use computer-generated models in their advertising. The perfectly sculpted vision of the female body remains the same from image to image--but the skin tone and clothing vary. It saves companies from having to pay models to pose in different outfits, but some experts worry that it puts more pressure on young women to live up to unreal standards of perfection. “It’s airbrushing on steroids,” Spurgin says.

Well, if so, it won't take long for people to figure that out.  The real benefit of this cheap and easy technology will be to scan your own body type perfectly and then virtually dress is up.  At that point, there will be work for all of those consultants who take your body type and skin tone and build a wardrobe within your budget, clothes that look great on you.

Levis was doing the custom body scan for a while, and then stopped, perhaps because the scanners were deadly, like what the TSA uses at an airport.  They still have the service, but they went back to old fashioned measuring tapes.

At some point someone is going to work out a simple scanner app and a clothing line made to order with 3rd party consultants, and it will work very well.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

O Dear - Minced Meat Metaphors

Chinese official radio hires English speakers as reporters.  Here is a summary line as reported in one article by Alexandra Blucher.

In a country where every day patients die because of a shortage of organ donations, the task at hand certainly is no mean feat.

Yikes.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

Hillary In 2012

Proof positive that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States is the fact that she is literally at the opposite end of the earth from the Democratic convention.

I am not sure how, but within this week there will be a crisis that forbids the nomination of Obama for a second term.  The crisis will be solved by Hillary taking the nomination.

Whether it is proof he is not born in USA, or a groundswell of democratic rejection of Obama, or whatever, he will not be nominated.  Whatever it is, it will not be a matter of violence, because the Clintons are better than that.  What I expect is a "grassroots rebellion" within the democratic party, which will bring in all of those Ron Paulians who have been rejected by the Republican party.  If the Democrats are the party of grassroots movements, then that is where they will go.  Won't the Paulians delight in watching the odious Romney/Ryan ticket get floormopped by Hillary due to the Paulian vote.

I'll even go further:  the drama of Hillary, leaving an important meeting half-way around the world, to come to the convention to save the democratic party, and America, will be very exciting for the faithful. How all will breathlessly track her travel from the farthest reaches to come to the convention. It will be compelling narrative for the entire country, especially in contrast to the stillborn Republican convention.  And further, when it comes time to accept the nomination, she will walk the length of the convention floor up to the podium to make her acceptance speech.

We'll know in a week.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

How to be Exempt From ObamaCare

Or which is essentially RomneyCare.  Anyway, leave the country and sneak back in.  Illegal aliens are exempt from Obamacare, so go to Canada, renounce your citizenship, and sneak back into the country.

Do we have to be so relentlessly weird?

There is another way to be exempt, and that is they way I am, as a conscientious objector.  It started young with me, every time the Government offered me some crazy proposition, I said no.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

How Come We Have State Parks?

Once upon a time, people opened parks for everyone to enjoy.  Then the State opened parks, at no charge, but a much higher cost. The "no charge" but more expensive state parks ran the private parks out of business, and then the state took over the private parks, at a higher cost. Eventually this system failed, and now the states charge far more for the users of parks than private owners ever would.  IN Washington, it is hard to get a car tabs renewal without making a donation to the state parks.

Not only that, but the states misallocate funds what funds are donated so repairs cannot be made.  For businesses around the parks, this is bad news.

So in one instance, the businesses made repairs to a park the State could not afford.

The state Department of Land and Natural Resources had estimated that the damage would cost $4 million to fix, money the agency doesn't have, according to a news release from department Chairwoman Laura Thielen.

What we do not know is how must the surf shacks and flavored ice shops paid to fix the bridge.  I doubt it was $4 million.  Maybe $20,000.  And therein lies the problem.  The State makes big solutions for little problems, and then charges too much because it spends too much.

We need to return to a time and place when parks were private, like say Hotels.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

USA Election Fraud

This from Lew Rockwell:

"Properly elected Ron Paul delegates were stripped from us.  And when a motion was made to amend the Credential Committee's report, it was ignored.  Morton Blackwell, a longtime conservative activist and RNC Rules Committee expert, found himself indefinitely detained -- along with the rest of the Virginia delegation.

The RNC bus driver responsible for transporting delegates somehow 'got lost' for well over an hour until a critical Rules Committee meeting adjourned.  [The new rules adopted by that committee] are designed to make the Republican Party a top-down organization and strip power away from state parties and grassroots activists of every stripe.  All efforts to vote down these onerous rules were ignored . . . "

There is a slice in every generation of activists who hope to make the world a better place.  They get their hopes and dreams smashed, and then go on to something else, good or bad.

In 2008 I was a Ron Paul delegate to the State of Washington convention.  It was a strange circumstance that got me there, but there I was.  I did not have my hopes and reams crushed simply because I expected nothing good to happen.  What it did teach me is the locus of evil in our society is the political parties.  Associating with the parties is to give power to those who use violence to maintain power.

In no other place have I ever seen such venality, lying, cheating and violence, always threat treat of violence....  It was sad to see the pudgy young men, with a grin and sneer, talking over shenanigans with older fellows, usually lawyers, the older men making suggestions, the younger nodding in ready agreement.  What position women play at these conventions is limited to supine.

Whoever paid off the driver to get lost will always have a good paying job, but will now be asked to perform ever dirtier tricks...  it is a downward spiral, which starts off with a funny thing and then gets awful.

The parties and the politics is the mechanism by which people give up their power to others, in direct contradiction to the will of God.  (See 1 Samuel 8)  It is why our problems cannot get solved, because we do not want to solve them ourselves.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

Noonan, Usury and Islamic Finance

As I study Islamic finance, all roads lead back to a book entitled Scholastic Analysis of Usury written in 1957 by an American lawyer named John Noonan.  Islamic scholars compare and contrast their laws against the development of Christian laws, as told by Noonan.  It appears Islamic scholars near universally believe the Church changed its teaching on usury, and Islamic scholars are concerned that their faith might follow the same error.  Well, not to worry, the Catholic church still condemns usury.  But more on that another time.

As I read Noonan I am perplexed as to why anyone would arrive at the conclusion that the church allows usury.  As I read on Islamic finance, I can understand how Islamic scholars might believe so.  Islam consults the Koran and its saints and theologians to arrive at Shariah.  So far, usury is forbidden.  Islam has no pope to declare for all time and places an infallible truth.    Well, Noonan cites the Bible in passing but he is heavy on saints and theologians to arrive at a change in church teaching on usury.  Hence, the Islamic scholars, I suspect, are observing Noonan's sources and analogizing them to Islam's path to Truth.  Problem is, Noonan's citing of theologians and canon law does not trump the infallible teachings of the Church.  Usury is sin.

What a comparison!  With no pope, as in Islam, the Truth is maintained.  With a pope, the Truth is widely ignored.  

I will write more on this later, but I want to mention arguments in writing, especially by lawyers.  As I read this book, Scholastic Analysis of Usury, I am astonished at how often Noonan is using rhetorical tracks and shifting definitions to make his case.  He is truly a gifted writer, but has no one who cites him noticed the games he plays?  Perhaps having grown up among lawyers I was tipped off to such tactics.  And I do credit a book called the Art of Cross Examination which lays out the most powerful scams lawyers advance.

Curiously, back to Noonan and Scholastic Analysis of Usury, for such an oft-cited book, it is not available on Amazon.com, in spite of the fact that the author is living and still producing books.  Alibris.com has no copies either. Further, there are only 445 copies, among all 11 editions, available in libraries around the world.  For the book to be rather unavailable, it takes the efforts of the author.

Another curiosity, for a book relating to faith and morals, written by a "staunch catholic" back in 1957, to not have a nihil obstat and an imprimatur is odd, expecially one so verses in Canon Law:

Can. 823 §1. In order to preserve the integrity of the truths of faith and morals, the pastors of the Church have the duty and right to be watchful so that no harm is done to the faith or morals of the Christian faithful through writings or the use of instruments of social communication. They also have the duty and right to demand that writings to be published by the Christian faithful which touch upon faith or morals be submitted to their judgment and have the duty and right to condemn writings which harm correct faith or good morals.

Noonan went on to become a federal judge and write more books, his most recent published in 2011.  Why is his first so difficult to find?  Perhaps I am not the only one to realize that Noonan's first book is rather disingenuous.  I'll write more on usury and Islamic finance later, but I wanted to mark the curious  source document for the idea that the Church permits usury.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

Trade Deficit Decreases

As imports drop...  still whole lotta int'l trade going on...



Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

Scarcity

When we have enough, then people get to work on providing something else people may need.  Let's go back 150 years to bastiat:

This classic essay by Frédéric Bastiat was recently featured at Mises.org. It was first published in 1845, as the first chapter of Bastiat’s Economic Sophisms.

Which is preferable for man and for society, abundance or scarcity?

“What!” people may exclaim. “How can there be any question about it? Has anyone ever suggested, or is it possible to maintain, that scarcity is the basis of man’s well-being?”

Yes, this has been asserted, and is maintained every day; and I do not hesitate to affirm that the theory of scarcity is the most popular by far. It is the life of conversation, of the newspapers, of books, and of political oratory; and, strange as it may seem, it is certain that political economy will have fulfilled its practical mission when it has established beyond question, and widely disseminated, this very simple proposition: “The wealth of men consists in the abundance of commodities.”

Do we not hear it said every day: “The foreigner is about to inundate us with his products?” Then we fear abundance.

Did not Mr. Saint-Cricq exclaim: “Production is excessive”? Then he feared abundance.

Do workmen break machines? Then they fear an excess of production, or abundance.

In as far as we are producers, it must be allowed that the desire of every one of us is antisocial. Are we vinedressers? It would give us no great regret if hail should shower down on all the vines in the world except our own: this is the theory of scarcity. Are we iron-masters? Our wish is that there should be no other iron in the market but our own, however much the public may be in want of it; and for no other reason than this want, keenly felt and imperfectly satisfied, shall ensure us a higher price: this is still the theory of scarcity. Are we farmers? We say with Mr. Bugeaud: Let bread be dear, that is to say, scarce, and agriculturists will thrive: always the same theory, the theory of scarcity.

If we now proceed to consider the immediate interest of the consumer, we shall find that it is in perfect harmony with the general interest, with all that the welfare of society calls for. When the purchaser goes to market he desires to find it well stocked. Let the seasons be propitious for all harvests; let inventions, more and more marvellous, bring within reach a greater and greater number of products and enjoyments; let time and labor be saved; let distances be effaced by the perfection and rapidity of transit; let the spirit of justice and of peace allow of a diminished weight of taxation; let barriers of every kind be removed — in all this the interest of the consumer runs parallel with the public interest. The consumer may push his secret wishes to a chimerical and absurd length, without these wishes becoming antagonistic to the public welfare. He may desire that food and shelter, the hearth and the roof, instruction and morality, security and peace, power and health, should be obtained without exertion and without measure, like the dust of the highways, the water of the brook, the air that we breathe; and yet the realization of his desires would not be at variance with the good of society.

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

How Much to Mint?

On Aug 27, 2012, at 4:20 PM, Anthony wrote:

When the US was on the gold standard, pre 1913, how did the treasury know how much money to mint and put in circulation? 

Anthony

The error is thinking much of any gold was actually in circulation...  go to a coin store and see all of the notes, private banks notes relating to the gold held by private banks at other places...warehouse receipts.

It did not matter how much they minted or not, as Spooner notes all mined gold is first minted into coins, and if it is not in demand it is melted down and turned into "plate, decoration and jewelry."  The idea that people commonly paid for things with gold is absurd.  Silver, sure, but rarely gold.

Gold coins show up as actual payment in history only when the poo is truly hitting the fan, at which point, the gold does not do you much good anyway.

We are in this mess because, among other reasons, we went off the gold standard.  Fractional reserve on credit is another.

But don't worry, the Government has 5 illegal bullets to use every USA citizen.

John

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

Gouging and Disaster Relief

An immediate response to a disaster by business is to raise prices on critical items.  The market is best when it comes to dealing with scarcity, and there is nothing like a natural disaster to bring quick scarcity.

In anticipation of yet another hurricane in the Gulf Coast, one gas station has jacked up prices 15% to those fleeing the oncoming storm.  Well done!  By raising prices, suppliers will begin to charge more to the stations, and then divert more gas where it is presently short.

The risk here is completely on the gas station who very well may err in calculating what price is right, and end up with too much gas at too high a price, and then take a loss.  And of course, the customers will return and exact any vengeance they may deem necessary.

The higher price also causes people to pause and say "Well, I need only 3 gallons to get the 60 miles inland to safety (where gas will be cheaper) so I'll just buy three gallons."  Here again, the merchant is helping manage scarcity.

Since this is all good, the Government outlaws it.

If any business is found to have violated state or local  price-gouging laws, they can face up to a $10,000 fine.

If after a disaster, you were floating down a river, exactly midstream and you saw FEMA on one side and the Salvation Army on the other side, to which side would you paddle?

Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post

Anarchy, Norway & Death Sentence

Libertarianism is a platform philosophy from which people usually depart to either libertinism like the Randians or off to anarchy, like, well, anarchists.    Each anarchist is sui generis.  The common thread in Libertarianism is the non-aggression principal: do not initiate force or fraud.

As I explain freedom to people, often their ultimate objection is "In anarchy, who is the cop?"  To which I answer, "You are."  When everyone sets their own rules, there cannot be "a" cop, everyone else must be the "cop."

The bible speaks of a time when "In those days there was no king in Israel, but every man did that which was right in his own eyes."  Judges 17 v 6

This is not a complaint, just a statement of the milieu that our hero, Micah, is operating.

This is not to be confused with the passage in which Israel is instructed in relation to sacrifices that they must work together for a common goal: 8 “You shall not do at all what we are doing here today, every man doing whatever is right in his own eyes; 9 for you have not as yet come to the resting place and the inheritance which the Lord your God is giving you. 

A child "knows" lying is wrong, because it does damage, not because anyone says so.  People say so to remind us of the damage.  Force and fraud to compel others against their will is wrong.  We know that without law.  The cop against force and fraud in those times of anarchy was everyone else upon whom each depends.  Do wrong, and the pitch-perfect sanction is delivered by the community at large.

After the debacle in Egypt, God leads Israel out of captivity and gives the Israelites the Ten Commandments, a simple restatement of natural law.  Still no king.

But soon enough, Israel rejects God as their leader and demands a mere king.  The famous (to me anyway) exchange ends with


¹⁸ When that day comes, you will cry out for relief from the king you have chosen, but the Lord will not answer you in that day. ”
¹⁹ But the people refused to listen to Samuel. “No!” they said. “We want a king over us. ²⁰ Then we will be like all the other nations, with a king to lead us and to go out before us and fight our battles.”


The keen reader will note, that since God will not do evil, he does not give Israel a king.  He lets Samuel do it.

²¹ When Samuel heard all that the people said, he repeated it before the Lord. ²² The Lord answered, “Listen to them and give them a king.”

So who is the cop when force and fraud turn violent, such as when a disgruntled employee shoots a co-worker in the head at the empire state building?  Or in a movie theatre in Colorado?  Or at a Summer camp in Norway?

We all are.  In New York, a construction worker who witnessed the killing had to run and get a city policemen, who turned a killing into mayhem.  The video shows as the killer turns toward the police brandishing his weapon, officer A getting in the way of officer B, making for a harrowing situation for both officers.  Finally officer B moves away (confronting a gunman the first thing you do is spread out)  from officer A and gets off the fatal shot, while officer A fires wildly into a crowd of pedestrians.  Back to the training center for you, officer A.

This is not to criticize the police, I personally am never armed for one reason because I would probably shoot myself if not others in a gun battle.  My chances, and everyone else's, are far better if I am not armed.  I only mean to say, if armed, be trained.  Really well trained.  Because the video is pretty much what a gun battle looks like.

Having said that, there are enough people who are excellent "officer B" grade pistoleros who if allowed to be armed would keep the rest of us safe, no city police needed.  Studies show when private individuals intervene in gunplay it ends faster with fewer casualties than when the police end it.  Sounds reasonable.

The Empire State video also shows the murderer not firing in spite of plenty of time to do so while the two officers danced around each other.  It looks from the video like "suicide by cop."  Such focussed shooters stop when their mission is complete, such as Chapman who shot Lennon was disarmed by a doorman.

An anarchists objection to the State is it keeps evil people, who would be killed, safe from the society that would punish it.  Rapists and murders are kept alive in the criminal justice system, apparently only to keep the criminal justice system alive.  Why, just think of all the criminals out there if we had no cops, judges and jails.  Well, think of all the criminals there would NOT be if we had no cops, judges and jails.  If we were all the "cops."

Now this is scary, Hatfield and McCoy, Afghani and Italian blood feud makings, to be sure.  But that is the stuff of legend, and nothing compared to the injustice of the system we have now.

I am not advocating anything we do not do right now.  The Colorado shooter is being kept out of the general prison population for the simple reason he would be dead very quickly, the inmates have said so.  Cannibal Jeffrey Dahmer was dead within hours of being let into the general population.

Since anarchy is the only practical, rational system, I never advocate anything that is not already the case in the majority of circumstances.

So now I look with interest to Norway.  The fellow who murdered some 70 campers and gave a power salute at his sentencing, was given 21 years total, minimum 10 if he behaves himself in prison.  Let's see how long he lasts?  Will another murderer in year one of a 21 year sentence ice him?  If so, why do we need the state?


Feel free to forward this by email to three of your friends.

Bookmark this post --- Email this post