The Gift of ADD/ADHD

Doctors are becoming ever more perplexed as to why ever more people are questioning their judgment.  Perhaps it is because ever more doctors are becoming soldiers in the fight for social engineering.

Parents face implacable social forces who want to make money off their children.  This needs to be said.

According to the US National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), nearly one in 11 American children aged 13-18 and one in 25 adults are affected by ADHD.
The analysis noted that Ritalin and other drugs were meant to be used only for "severe" ADHD symptoms, which according to research data only occur among about 14 percent of children with the condition.
Yet "about 87 percent of children diagnosed with ADHD in the US in 2010 subsequently received medication," it said, warning of "unnecessary and possibly harmful medication treatment".
The study said the main ADHD drugs could have side effects like weight change, liver damage and dwelling on suicide. And the drugs' long-term impact, as a child moves into adulthood, remained unknown.
The study, led by Rae Thomas at the Centre for Research in Evidence-Based Practice at Australia's Bond University, did not dispute the existence of ADHD as a medical condition.
It noted that children who genuinely had a severe form of it ran the risk of failure at school and of social rejection.

One in eleven.  There are zero children who need Ritalin.  There is no such thing as a chemical imbalance until the doctors introduce a chemical imbalance.  There are plenty of kids who are rambunctious, or mature at a different pace, and so what if they face "social rejection"  or face "failure at school."  We all face some social rejection, that's part of life, and no one faces total social rejection.  Failing at school is a problem of how schools operate.  So homeschool the gifted child.  Failing at school is no indicator of future success.  25% of our people drop out, and most do just fine.  Finishing school signifies nothing.

If you look at all these people who go to gun-free zones and starting shooting the place up, they have all had these treatments.  Talk about facing social rejection and doing poorly at school.  I call eleven dead doing poorly at school.

We have drug companies that attract soul-dead welfare queen executives, and parents who think of their kids as a consumer item... or a pet.  "Let's load junior up with whatever..."  Or at best, parents who have no idea who they are up against.

If your kid is on Ritalin, well, you've been had.  Get very expert help on getting your kid off Ritalin, and out of the system.  The stuff is extremely dangerous, and all the doctors know it.    So why do they prescribe it like "an aspirin and rest"?

If your kid acts up at school and faces social rejection, rejoice.  You have a gifted child.  Homeschool the kid, or sail around the world.  Whatever you do, do not drug the kid.  We need eery single one of those kids with the gift of ADD/ADHD. Change your life to organize around the gift.  Do not drug him.

Have a heart.


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Capitalism And Airport Security

Seattle elected a socialist city council person, not that anyone will notice, and not that capitalism is about to go anywhere anytime soon.  But here is a visual lesson on capitalism.

Karl Marx was first to popularize the term to represent a system, and that system is based on Kapital, or assets, not just money.

So in capitalism, this is capital:

Das Kapital

Now, after 9-11, we are told we needed a new police force to protect Americans.  You see, when in USA there are more than a few people together in on place, they might get attacked by a terrorist.  So we have a system where far away from the airplanes people are screened before they get near the airplanes.  To make the 200 people on an airplane safe while they fly.  And to make us safe, we get searched:

To protect us from terrorists, we have one old man feel up another old man.  

Before we get searched, what happens is everyone heading for an airplane must congest a safe distance from the airplanes.  (From the AIRPLANES).



And what is the result?  A perfect target for terrorists, people are congregated close to where a terrorist can easily attack and harm a lot of people.  The airplanes are perfectly safe.    You see, the problem with capitalism is that the capital comes first.

Now, the stupidity of making people crowd up and more conveniently available to terrorists is well-remarked, but our system cares more about capital than people, so nothing will be done.  If and when there is an attack, there will just be another layer of police laid on to protect the airplanes.

There is a solution to the problem, quite simple actually, and that is to tell the airlines to protect their own capital and passengers.  Why should taxpayers fork over fantastics amounts of money to protect the assets of private companies?

On the other hand, why should the airlines put a dime into protecting customers and capital when the taxpayer will pay ten dollars for it?

What the airline could do for a dime, the government does for $10, so to save a dime, the airline is happy to see the taxpayer nailed.

Hotels do an extremely good job of protecting their capital without the taxpayers picking up the tab. Fool around in a hotel, and soon there is fellow with tan pants and a blue blazer and all sorts on bulges under his clothes offering you a smile and an escort to wherever you need to go.  Hiltons patrons are safe because Hilton protects its capital.

If we collectively told the airlines to protect their own assets, that we were going to eliminate the TSA in 72 hours (and cut taxes that much)  each airline would immediately put in place superior security at less costs.  What would that security be?  Who knows, it would be a trade secret to each airline.  The most uncertain thing in life for a terrorist would be to go near an airport.

They already have plans, since they already know superior means for protecting the passengers and capital.  I've heard pilots run down some of these systems.  Cheap and smart.  In capitalism the highest priority is the bottom line.  The strategy is to keep the profits and pass the losses on to the taxpayer.

As it stands now, and won't change, is at today's airports, a terrorist finds easy access to a ready and unarmed crowd.  And as a bonus, the entire airline network gets impacted worldwide.

We get the ludicrous solutions to self-inflicted problems because we have a capitalist system.  If and when we can dismantle the capitalist policies, and allow a free market to bloom, we'll see unimagined peace and prosperity.

Please think about this when you crowd up at the airport on your way somewhere.

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Contracts In International Trade

Back in the day, at the bottom of all contracts and title instruments on international trade paperwork was E&OE, Errors and Omissions Excepted.  Meaning, regarding this document, "you can rely on it, unless you can't."  The reason is that in international trade there is no recourse to the law.  The "law" of international trade, lex mercatoria, was private law, which meant that if sued, a defendant could show up or not.  Didn't matter.  This system worked extremely well.  Another example of anarchy not only in action, but clearly superior in practice.

The lesson is, never take your USA understanding of contracts, and its premise that any disputes can be taken to court, with you into international trade.

On Nov 13, 2013, at 5:01 PM, Anthony wrote:

I saw this posted in a forum on a familiar pay site.   So basically, I’m reporting to you what I read on another site with a few changes to protect the inoccent and avoid any copyright issues.  

The Importer is in the US.  The Supplier is a factory in India.   The Customer is a catalog mail order clothing company.

Customer places three purchase orders with the Importer.  

***So a USA company is doing business with a USA importer who is buying from India. Nothing unusual there.***

Shipment 1 arrived with several problems; labeling issues, fabric issues, and the amount came up short which was not reflected on the invoice or the packing list.

  The customer has already paid the importer not only for goods it did not receive but they also paid extra duties because the shipping documents show more goods than what was actually delivered.

***Prepaid the USA importer?!  No sympathy for the USA customer there.  When the shipment was actually received, was the shortage noted at that time?  If not, no sympathy for the customer.  If so, the customer has a legal claim, take it to small claims.  If so, there is duty drawback, if not the customer is SOL.***

Shipment 2  is sitting in Oakland, CA accumulating storage fees.   The goods cannot clear through customs until the Indian supplier sends the original Bill of Lading.   The Indian supplier refuses to do this until they get paid in full for Shipment 2.

***Demurrage fees are astronomical. This cannot end well.*** 

The customer wants a refund of $10,000 for the problems with the first shipment.  The Importer went after the Indian supplier for the refund but they refuse to refund anything and now don’t trust the importer. 

*** The customer screwed up, should have gotten what they paid for, paid for what they got.  No more, no less.  Relationship is everything in business. It seems they structured the deal which allowed for some risk, and then did not have a relationship that covered that.  Entrepreneurs***

The Indian supplier insists on getting paid in full.  The importer asked the customer to pay for Shipment 2 so the importer can pay the Indian supplier and get shipment 2 out of customs.   However, the customer insists on reducing the Shipment 2 payment by the $10,000 refund amount.  

***See how these things get screwed up?  Why did the Indian supplier not get paid in full before the goods left India?  That is normal.  

Here is where these things go wrong.  Since no one trusts each other in this deal (never did) the players ironically allowed gaps in the agreements.  By the Indian saying "I'll take payment upon delivery" he can ship crap and get paid before anyone figures it out.

At the same time the exporter is saying "I can ship crap" the importer is saying "he cannot ship crap, because he will not get paid."  Both sides are perfectly happy while maintaining mutually exclusive expectations.

Now the exporter will lose his money on shipment #2.  Or not.  He made so much on #1 he figured he could lose on #2, or bonus, hit the lottery if the obtuse players in USA actually paid for the 2nd shipment.  Or, in the alternative, after USCustoms seizes the goods and auctions them off to cover costs, the supplier overseas has a USA buddy buy the goods for pennies on the dollars at the auction.  I know a guy who did that.

There never was a shipment three contemplated.  Three card monte:  by getting the marks to consider three deals, they never expected to get nailed on deal one.

And of course, it is possible there is wailing and gnashing of teeth in India over the mess on the docks in USA and this exporter did his best work and was not up to snuff, and is in no position to make good for losses.  (And the example here is India, but trade with every single country on earth is exposed to these scenarios.)

In any scenario, the fundamental problem is the same: people opened gaps in the agreement in the measure necessary to fool themselves into believing this would work out.  There is a movie, either Grifters or House of Games, both about con artists, in which one of the con artists explains that it is not the mark's confidence in the con artist, but the mark's confidence in himself that makes the scam work.  

In int'l trade I see people weaken the deal in order to build enough confidence to proceed.  They scam themselves!

By weakening the deal, they fool themselves into believing there are enough checks to sort any problem out.  By weakening the deal, they can substitute due diligence with grey area, betting on grey area to save them.

Lesson # Three in international trade:  There is a first rate trader, that first rate trader can be known, there is no point in working with less than the first rate.

Now, for whatever reason, people decide not to step up to what it takes to be first rate.  To get the first rate to work with you, you must be first rate yourself.  But say your hope is to get rich quick in int'l trade, then you simply cannot do what is necessary within your definition of quick to get an agreement from a first rate supplier to work with you.  Therefore, you cut corners and go to second rate.

Anybody can do the first rate work necessary to work with the first rate suppliers.  But for most to work with the first rate the trade off is to do smaller deals necessarily since one's capacity to do first rate work is limited, and ability to do first rate may yield only say a $10,000 transaction, not a $100,000 transaction.

The funny thing is, a first rate $10,000 transaction gets repeated, so by the end of the year, Mr. $10,000 has done a million in sales, where Mr. $100,000 is hiding from creditors.

There are probably more deals like this than first rate trades.  Suppliers overseas are desperate to find people in USA who do first rate work.  Probably why first rate pays so much better.  As to this deal salvage what you can on order #1, lick your wounds, do it right next time.***

Shipment 3 is on the way and will also need the Bill of Lading in order to move through customs.  

***If I was the customer this would be of zero concern to me. Deal was off when shipment #1 was not in compliance.  If I was the importer, I would wonder if there was in fact a shipment 3.  Drucker said it first, and I believe he is absolutely right:  Entrepreneurs do not take risks.***

How would a student of John Spiers have avoided this situation?    

***Find the best supplier in the world AND get references. This was not done. The best supplier in the world would at once require first rate work, meaning the retailer and importer would have to step up their game, and then there would be no problem as to payment and QC.***

  How would John Spiers consult with the importer to resolve the current situation? 

***Don't throw good money after bad.  No doubt the goods are needed for 4th quarter sales, but you screwed up.  Buy them at customs auction in a month or so after Customs seizes them in Oakland.***

My knee jerk reaction is to protect the customer and refund him in full.   Then cut off the supplier unless he can fix the issues immediately.   And why didn’t the importer check references on their supplier first?     

*** Why didn't the customer check the references of the importer?  Why was anything paid for when it was not to spec?  The customer is the author of all these problems...  too little too late.  Start over.

John

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BioFuels and Jets

Can you doubt that it is on purpose that the Obama administration is in such disarray?  The job is too big for anyone, but a George Bush gets protected and handled well, but Barack Obama is being played.  The divide and conquer, the "blame the black guy" going on, and by association all "black" guys, with the internet comments sections getting murderous in their tone and intent.  I bet since "they" now can measure metadata on racist temperature, they are.  The banks and the military industrial complex need to change the topic, so we have the American classic, "blame the black guy."

I have zero sympathy for any politician, and I cannot think of a single beneficial program provided by the state, so I am an anarchist by default.  I use the USPS, roads, school under protest, but absolutely no one cares what I think, nor does it matter what I think.  But those who actually blame Obama necessarily think someone else could get it right.  For the fifty years I've been watching politics, there is always a fresh crop of people who will get it right.  They only get it worse.  At what point will people say, wait a minute, there is no "dear leader" who can get it right.  White people tried that, with Dolphie Schicklegruber and Uncle Joe Vissarionovich.  You'd think we'd learn.

While we are blaming the black guy for out troubles, we are getting what we want, good and hard.  The crazy biofuels idea is making even the greens at the EPA nervous.

“If we’re going to get serious about investing in our energy future, we must give our family farmers and local ethanol producers a fair shot at success,” Obama said then.
The Democratic primary field was crowded, and if he didn’t win the Iowa caucuses the road to the nomination would be difficult. His strong support for ethanol set him apart.
“Any time we could talk about support for ethanol, we did,” said Mitch Stewart, the battleground states director for Obama’s 2008 campaign. “It’s how we would lead a lot of discussions.”
President Bush signed the bill that December.

Just so.  Is there not a single terrible Obama admin policy which in not just Bush IV?  (Or V, counting his dad?)  Yet this is blame Obama.  At the same time, with these economy killing and environamental destroying policies, the powers that be know exactly what to do: cut taxes and roll back "regulations."

(Reuters) - The Washington state legislature on Saturday passed a measure to extend nearly $9 billion in tax breaks for Boeing through 2040 in an embattled effort to entice the company to locate production of its newest jet, the 777X, in the Seattle area.

But only if you are Boeing, not if you are a start-up or small business.  Whether you call this crony capitalism or state socialism, it is fascism when the state and business are one.

The rule of law in USA is "get big or get out."

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Food Conference In Las Vegas - Exporting Section

I am being hosted at a State of Nevada food conference at which I will be speaking for an hour or so on food and beverage export market development tactics.  It is an all day event, with plenty of other topics covered as well. Here is the official flyer, and here are the details and links to where you may register.
Southern Nevada Agricultural Conference

Santa Fe Station Hotel & Casino
Dates: 11/21/2013 - 11/21/2013                
Address: 4949 N. Rancho Dr. Las Vegas, NV 89108
Days: Th  Sessions: 1
Room: Meeting Room
Times: 9:00 AM - 4:30 PM
SKU: 128652 Fee: $55.00
http://www.campusce.net/wnc/course/course.aspx?C=287&pc=12&mc=49&sc=50
That $55 fee goes up to $60 after Nov 14, and in any event the fee includes lunch AND a continental breakfast.  It is limited to Nevada residents, but please feel free to forward this to those who might find the info useful.
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Why We Need Robots to Replace High-paying Jobs

Since China has a desperate labor shortage, they are moving way ahead of USA on robot factories.

In USA, we need to promote eliminating high-paying jobs by replacing them with robots, the sooner the better.  We'll know we are on our way to auto-industry recovery when there is not a single manufacturing job making cars in USA.  Of course, part of the process will be to repudiate all of the pensions, but anyone who ever expected to live on a pension was simply being self-delusional.

Here is why we need to replace factory work with robots.  Anyone can do the repetitive factory work.  In fact any robot can do it.  What only a creative, thinking person can do is develop new products.

For example, in a country that has been pretty much freed of "high paying employment" some gals not working on a production line came up with an invisible bike helmut.



The Invisible Bicycle Helmet | Fredrik Gertten from Focus Forward Films on Vimeo.

People who seek high-paying jobs robots can do deny the rest of us the good of their creativity.  The settle for "high pay" in betrayal of the rest of us.   The charitable thing to do is let them know now, there will be no pension.  Therefore, get busy creating something new and valuable.

We need to get rid of "high-paying jobs" because the people who seek them deny the rest of us the good of their creativity.

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John Paul DeJoria

There is a double-truck ad in the current issue of Forbes by Paul Mitchell, aka John Paul DeJoria.  The guy is fast becoming my hero in biz.

DeJoria entered the world of hair care as an employee of Redken Laboratories. He was fired from this position, he claims over a disagreement on business strategies. In 1980, he formed John Paul Mitchell Systems with hairdresser Paul Mitchell and a loan for $700.^[5] DeJoria owns 70% of The Patron Spirits Company. The Company is an ultra-premium tequila brand, and in 2011 they sold approximately 2,450,000 cases. DeJoria has a business interest in the African oil industry through his holdings in Madagascar Oil Ltd.

He caught me hook line and sinker with Patron tequila.  I thought I was buying a time tested traditional tequila, when in fact it was something a hairdresser came up with in 1989.  The best!

The ad is for something called Grow Appalachia.  Well, here is where the hero thing comes in.  How he gets involved in helping alleviate hunger in Africa, is to help Appalachians grow more and better food.  See the connection?  No?  He does, and so do I.

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Intensive International Trade Start-up

This is your last chance this year to take my all-day intensive seminar, this time in San Francisco.  The seminar carries credit, so check with human resources to see if the company will pay the fee.  And then get the boss to sign off on you flying in.  

The all-day intensive seminar for UC Berkeley Monday, November 18 from 8:30 am to 5pm in San Francisco, CA. 

You'll learn to identify markets and sources, and everything in between.  If you plan to start up a business, or need to expand your business internationally, this seminar is unique for its tactics and attitude.  It is highly rated for content, pace and humor by the participants.

Bring a laptop, we'll be taking actions in the classroom to advance your business (wifi provided.)   There is plenty of follow-up consultation with the instructor.

Register now to assure a place in the class.  This one actually has Berkeley credit associated with the course, .8 of a CEU, which means if you are pursuing a degree the seminar goes on your transcript, if you want that too, and your employer is likely to cover the cost in your company education benefit program.

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Taxes Are Punishment for Being Greedy

If you are self employed, you have gross income of X, you have expenses of Y and the net is Z.  Z is what you are taxed upon...

Being self-employed, you want as little Z as you possibly can...being self employed, you want to earn, net, as little as possible...

How come? Because what you do helps other people, and the more you invest in helping other people, the less net you earn, and the less taxes you pay.

What you do not spend in business gets taxed...at what 30%?

What you spend, and is therefore taken from the net profit, and is not taxed, gets spread around to other businesses, which helps them also.

And given your product relates to your life, all you can legitimately spend money which is a business expense necessarily also promotes your own lifestyle.

If you net near zero, by spending all of the income on things to support your lifestyle, then the business is most efficient... you are doing the most good you possibly can.

The measure you have a net profit is the measure you are declining to help others, the measure you are greedy.

Taxes are your punishment for being too greedy to spread your net income around...  the crony capitalists pay no taxes anyway, so they will not object when the communists in the USCongress raise the taxes to 90% on business, to curb the greed.

So the right thing is to net near zero and keep building up your expertise.  If not, the communists in the USA government will see to it anyway, or at least spend on themselves what you will not spend building up yourself.

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As USA Overrides the Market...

Communist China recognizes its decisive role:

BEIJING - The Communist Party of China (CPC) has acknowledged the market's "decisive" role in allocating resources, according to a communique issued after its key session about reform.

China will deepen its economic reform to ensure that the market will play a "decisive" role in allocating resources, according to the communique after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, which closed here Tuesday.

The market had been often defined as a "basic" role in allocating resources since the country decided to build a socialist market economy in 1992.

While following its basic economic system and improving it, the country will work to improve the modern market system, macro-regulatory system and an open economy, the document said.

To let the market decide the allocation of resources, the primary task is to build an open and unified market with orderly competition, according to the document.

Land in cities and the countryside, which can be used for construction, will be pooled in one market, it said.

Under a modern market system, businesses should be allowed to operate independently and compete fairly while consumers should be free to choose and spend. Also, merchandise can be traded freely and equally, the document said.

In the document, the CPC pledged to clear barriers in the market and improve the efficiency and fairness in the allocation of resources. It will also create fair, open and transparent market rules and improve the market price mechanism.

It is discouraging to see USA hobbles itself for bankers and crush innovation for no particular reason, as China plays by our rules and wins.  Sigh.

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Food Trade and Ethics

What do you do with a complicated mess?

Kevin sends in an article on trade in food in Africa:

In the jargon of the industry, Africa has been an “origination” business since colonial times, providing raw materials for overseas consumers: gold from South Africa, coffee from Ethiopia, crude oil from Nigeria, cocoa from Ivory Coast and copper from Zambia. This business model is still crucial to the big trading houses and exporting Africa’s commodities has funnelled millions of dollars into the hands of foreign tycoons.

While Africa has heretofore been a source, now it is a market.  An amazing thing, Africa importing food.

The complicated mess is the series of competing laws that so distort the markets in Africa.  Terrible things happen after such laws are enacted:

In the first year of the Famine, deaths from starvation were kept down due to the imports of Indian corn and survival of about half the original potato crop. Poor Irish survived the first year by selling off their livestock and pawning their meager possessions whenever necessary to buy food. Some borrowed money at high interest from petty money-lenders, known as gombeen men. They also fell behind on their rents.

Corns laws made Irish land valuable: English overlords could make good money having Irish work the land as tenants (since Catholics could not own land) and sell the produce in England at artificially high prices.  The Irish lived off of potatoes, and when that crop failed, well the rest is history.

http://xroads.virginia.edu/~hyper/sadlier/irish/starvati.htm

And as these things go, more died of the disease that followed when immune systems were compromised than from starvation.

We have recently seen images of such starvation in Africa.  A critical part of trade is making sure we are not creating problems with our policies.  Because the pattern is always the same, we already know how we get from corn laws to starving family in a country with plenty of food.  Our job is to not do that.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Starving-woman-africa-biafra-nigeria-conflict-famine.jpg

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Alibaba IPO

I describe the alibaba website as a place where when you need a sip of good glean water, you are given a firehose of foul liquid.  If you are serious about business, stay away form alibaba.

Yahoo.com was once a part owner, and they got out.

But but but, Alibaba is a massively successful company.  Yes, Alibaba is the Sprint, Esurance, Google, Amazon, Ally bank, Twitter, facebook and everything else all rolled into one in China.     I have no doubt it is doing well in many areas, but it is known for trade leads.  What it is known for must be avoided.

Now, China politics, on the Alibaba IPO:

Shortly after the company's CEO Jonathan Lu blasted the Hong Kong authorities for their lack of knowledge about Internet enterprises, his boss, chairman Jack Ma, invited a group of Hong Kong reporters from various media to Alibaba's headquarters in scenic Hangzhou to make a personal plea.
...
This is not going to convince too many in Hong Kong. What Ma may have missed is that bending the rules for his company would almost certainly stir a controversy that the Hong Kong government can ill afford at this time.
...
There was talk about Alibaba bringing its IPO to New York, or, some reports suggested, London. ...  Alibaba is not rushing into the US largely because that market is noted for its tough disclosure requirements and a large contingent of litigation-happy shareholders and investors. Hong Kong is the Goldilock's choice for Alibaba except for a provision in the rules that require all shareholders to be treated equally.
...
Ma and his lieutenants may not fully appreciate the importance of consistency in a rule-of-law market environment so meticulously established by the Hong Kong government over the past several decades to attract long-term investment funds from overseas institutions.

With all that power and money, it seems Alibaba wants to launder it out of China.  It seems the Chinese officials are frowning on that, making the ever more desperate alibaba folks panic.  And good for Hong Kong to stick to its rules.

Hong Kong has the exact same set of rogues and knaves as anywhere else, the genius is none of them can aggregate enough power to work their evil on others.  With no ability to aggregate power, peace and prosperity reigns.

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Davison and Innovation Introduction

This came in my email unbidden.  

What is wrong with this picture?

1. It has the process exactly backwards.

2. It presents a new product to exactly the wrong market.

Next, here is the fine print:

Davison's research, development and presentation services are provided for an upfront fee paid by the client and a contingent fee, or a percentage of royalties obtained by the client, if any. New product development is an uncertain endeavor and the use of Davison's services typically does not result in a license agreement, sales on any market or profit to the inventor. Davison does not perform analysis of the feasibility, marketability, patentability or profitability of ideas submitted to it.

You can do better yourself faster.  That is what I teach.

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Hointer Update

In its "about" page Hointer gets around to "you" in the second paragraph of the six paragraph valentine to themselves.

For every guy, there's nothing like a great pair of jeans to make you look and feel confident, and we never have enough pairs to get through the week.

Does this sound like you?  Do you esteem a pair of jeans to "make you look and feel confident?"  Not to worry, the people of Hointer are confident you want what they offer, since they are really smart and successful people, since they worked at Amazon, etc.

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in life is to believe your own PR.  We all need a story, but better to shorten it.  Test it early and hard, and expect to fail, but fail fast and fail early so you can adjust.

I was in another retail store awaiting my slot for Sunday Brunch  when my conversation with the proprietor got around to me asking if my comments had offended her.  She said "not offended, just tired of people telling her how to run her business."   And, in essence, who the hell did I think I was to offer advice?  I shared with her who the hell I think I am, how on the side I collect and distribute info relating to business start-up, and I gave her various business cards, which mollified her.

Knowing that to get to a business person's joy one has to wade through her passion (suffering) we were then able to get around to a substantive conversation.

She refuses signage, engages each customer personally, develops each customer for how she can be a resource for that customer in terms of spices, herbs and so on.  She does not compete on price, and we thereafter agreed on all points about business.

Since I cannot do business on Sundays, I told her I'd be back, and then I hope to talk to her more about her business.  I can be too much to take at once one on one, so I try to dilute myself.

One the other hand, 10, 20, 30 people at a time is just about right, so this seminar at UCBerkeley held in San Francisco is well worth flying in for....

I'll be teaching an all-day intensive seminar for UC Berkeley Monday, November 18 from 8:30 am to 5pm in San Francisco, CA.  If you are in the Bay Area this seminar offers boot-camp start-up experience and time to get specific questions answered.  If you are not in the Bay Area, this is the one for which you should fly in.  
You'll learn to identify markets and sources, and everything in between.  If you plan to start up a business, or need to expand your business internationally, this seminar is unique for its tactics and attitude.  It is highly rated for content, pace and humor by the participants.
Bring a laptop, we'll be taking actions in the classroom to advance your business (wifi provided.)   There is plenty of follow-up consultation with the instructor.
Register now to assure a place in the class.  This one actually has Berkeley credit associated with the course, .8 of a CEU, which means if you are pursuing a degree the seminar goes on your transcript, if you want that too, and your employer is likely to cover the cost in your company education benefit program.

Get your boss to pay for it....


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Experts Wrong On China

You can search Pettis on this blog and find a several part section challenging his views on China.  He's got it wrong again, not in his facts, but in his conclusions.

Debt always matters because it must always be paid for by someone –even if the borrower defaults, of course, the debt is simply “paid” by the lender. This is why the fact that debt in China seems to be growing much faster than debt-servicing capacity implies slower growth in the future. If the debt cannot be fully serviced by the increase in productivity created by the investment that the debt funded, unless it is funded by liquidating state sector assets it must cause a reduction in demand elsewhere, most probably in household consumption. This reduction in demand implies slower growth in the future and, of course, a more difficult rebalancing process.

And here are his facts:

The reason is because in any case debt must either be serviced or the borrower must default. If the assets which were funded by the debt do not create enough wealth with which to service the debt, and if the borrower does not default, then by definition there must have been a transfer from some other entity to cover the difference between the debt servicing cost and the returns on the asset.

Why his academic analysis fails is for the simple reason is the players know both points perfectly well.  But China is competing against the USA, and there are three factors by which China will come out ahead:

1. Not as bad off.  The debt per Chinese, is no where near the debt per American.    Since China is on its way up, when the system fails worldwide, they will have less far to fall and in any event still be growth-oriented.    In USA we'll have rioting over EBT card refills.

2.  Not as far away form poverty.  Some 1/2 of Americans depend on entitlements, and have no other concept of life except entitlement.  I personally met Chinese back in the day who had on pair of pants between the three of them.  Each would wear the pair to work, come home and lend the pair to the next, so he could go work, and then so with the third.  Those people are my age, and can take getting knocked back 1/2 way, because they remember what it once was.

3. Can play the game longer.  No matter how long the FED drags out this dreadful grinding poverty on behalf of the banks, China can play the game longer.  China needs only wait until USA fails, and then comes the cascading cross defaults, which ends up with China as the best investment bet left standing.  A mess, but best relative to everywhere else.

USA can beat anyone in the world economically, because we have the right stuff theoretically.  But we have elected to enslave ourselves to a military industrial complex that guarantees that our best means are literally outlawed, and our worst excesses are the law of the land.

We lose, and you can thank a veteran for that.

Update:

Another difference:  Every over 30 years old in China knows what it means to depend on the government.  They know they are on their own when it comes to support.  No one is depending on, or looking forward to, social security China.  In USA, we look forward to what is not there..

Everybody should be calling the CBO and asking why they’re doing this. This is a pattern, you know. The Clinton administration—we put out the fiscal gap studies for a couple of years on the President’s budget. The Clinton administration then censored it. The guys who’s now head of the National Economic Council, the Chief Economic Advisor to President Obama, was the one who did the censorship back in 1994. President Bush’s Treasury Secretary O’Neil wanted us to do a fiscal gap accounting for the President’s budget in 2003 and he was fired in December 7, 2002, and that study was censored two days after he was fired. So, this is not accidental. This is more or less a conspiracy to hide the truth to keep ourselves and our kids in the dark about what the politicians are really doing, which is trying to garner the votes of older people and then get reelected and leave a bigger mess for our kids to handle.

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